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 2024 Property Outlook

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PAChamp
post Sep 27 2023, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Cavatzu @ Sep 27 2023, 12:07 PM)
If anything, this will encourage developers to continue to launch. The data is generally positive. Product mismatch I think hopefully they’ve learnt by now as it hurts their bottom line even more for a product that can’t sell.
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They need to launch as they have fixed costs every month and no launch means no cash flow. But their launches will mainly be in the "affordable" category as easier to sell. Thus prices in this category will remain stagnant and even affect the more "atas" categories. However yes the data is positive for developers and the future outlook will improve as covid period is rock bottom already.
kenzotaj
post Sep 27 2023, 03:31 PM

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Covid more or less over. Business as usual.
The greater klang valley landed prop selling like hot cake.
Suburban area and high density condo difficult to say, probably plateau out.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/684078


Digest this. All sold out in 1 weekend !!!!

This post has been edited by kenzotaj: Sep 27 2023, 03:32 PM
SUSSihambodoh
post Sep 27 2023, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(zack.gap @ Sep 25 2023, 09:16 PM)
Does anyone here think property will boom despite the elevated interest rate environment? BNM isn't going to cut anytime soon, inflation macam on the uptrend due to supply issues which may mean one last hike. Overhang for condos/apartments still damn high. MYR weakening which means costlier labour and materials. China, Europe, US property woes due to crazy hikes all around. All in all a bad time to enter the market/industry..
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Let them buy really. If they make money good for them, if not then don't feel sorry for them. Their money they live with the consequences of their decision. But one day if they come out to ask the government to bail them, save their business, save their jobs, then you have to fight this. Because they are asking you and many other Malaysians to pay for the consequences of their greed.
icemanfx
post Sep 27 2023, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(PAChamp @ Sep 27 2023, 03:06 PM)
They need to launch as they have fixed costs every month and no launch means no cash flow. But their launches will mainly be in the "affordable" category as easier to sell. Thus prices in this category will remain stagnant and even affect the more "atas" categories. However yes the data is positive for developers and the future outlook will improve as covid period is rock bottom already.
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Not according to some bankers and current market sentiment.

QUOTE(kenzotaj @ Sep 27 2023, 03:31 PM)
Covid more or less over.  Business as usual.   
The greater klang valley landed prop selling like hot cake.  
Suburban area and high density condo  difficult to say, probably plateau out.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/684078
Digest this. All sold out in 1 weekend !!!!
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In this age, still have people take developers hook, line and sinker.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 28 2023, 12:22 PM
Cavatzu
post Sep 27 2023, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(PAChamp @ Sep 27 2023, 03:06 PM)
They need to launch as they have fixed costs every month and no launch means no cash flow. But their launches will mainly be in the "affordable" category as easier to sell. Thus prices in this category will remain stagnant and even affect the more "atas" categories. However yes the data is positive for developers and the future outlook will improve as covid period is rock bottom already.
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The floor price will remain at 500k for mid range unit but unit size and density will change.

Question is if your higher end units are value buys or not since there’s less demand.
PAChamp
post Sep 27 2023, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(kenzotaj @ Sep 27 2023, 03:31 PM)
Covid more or less over.  Business as usual.   
The greater klang valley landed prop selling like hot cake. 
Suburban area and high density condo  difficult to say, probably plateau out.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/684078
Digest this. All sold out in 1 weekend !!!!
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No surprise there. Landed freehold at 1.4 mil... not many units. Not surprisingly sold out. If you want to buy now, this will be my advise, landed 2 storey terrace. The "nasi lemak" property which will always be in demand.
Jingle91
post Sep 27 2023, 04:16 PM

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I think need to differentiate on difference btw normal mkt adjustment and general recession.

The current mkt status to me is not booming but it still manage to maintain its growth. Those who bought overpriced condo for investment purpose of course will be suffered in subsale mkt due to their own wrong judgement, but it doesn't meen the mkt is collapsing. Yet nowadays majority of young buyers are still keen to buy from developer because of low initial dp and ease of financing. Landed housing is still preferential product for solid buyers.

If the mkt is really in recession, first to see is general pricing of all houses are falling in different degree, next will be the ugly financial result of developers, and then bad loan increase in Bank' quarterly report. Neither of these happened. Not to say all developers share price are recovering to pre pandemic level.

kidmad
post Sep 28 2023, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(zack.gap @ Sep 25 2023, 09:16 PM)
Does anyone here think property will boom despite the elevated interest rate environment? BNM isn't going to cut anytime soon, inflation macam on the uptrend due to supply issues which may mean one last hike. Overhang for condos/apartments still damn high. MYR weakening which means costlier labour and materials. China, Europe, US property woes due to crazy hikes all around. All in all a bad time to enter the market/industry..
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When times are bad you go.. when times are good you think twice. Also interest rate elevated? It only went back to pre-pandemic rate. No idea what elevation you referring to.

Will property boom? I no idea but i can tell you ppl will continue to buy that's for sure. Will it stop no.. it did not 40 years ago and it wont in the next 40 years. Only equation is in between how fast/slow it will be.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 26 2023, 09:24 AM)
Contemporary history shows; those have vested interests tend to ignore facts and data, paint a rosy future to attract someone to take over their bag.
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This follow your advise since 2012 all go Holland already. Even ppl in your camp like bearbearwong had a family bought a property. Go get a life la.
Angellynx
post Sep 28 2023, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(kenzotaj @ Sep 27 2023, 03:31 PM)
Covid more or less over.  Business as usual.   
The greater klang valley landed prop selling like hot cake. 
Suburban area and high density condo  difficult to say, probably plateau out.

Digest this. All sold out in 1 weekend !!!!
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Landed with a right price definitely gets a lot of attraction from the market. I'd say the location itself is good for the price.

Actually to me property market will always move la. It's just different time with different kind of buyer. When it's on the low cycle, the rich investors will buy the dip or look through market for great deals; whereas on the high cycle, mass market will buy due to FOMO. And those who wait for market crash to get a 2-storey landed @ PJ for RM200K will continue to wait........for their sweet time to come icon_rolleyes.gif
icemanfx
post Sep 28 2023, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 28 2023, 06:17 PM)
When times are bad you go.. when times are good you think twice. Also interest rate elevated? It only went back to pre-pandemic rate.  No idea what elevation you referring to.

Will property boom? I no idea but i can tell you ppl will continue to buy that's for sure.  Will it stop no.. it did not 40 years ago and it wont in the next 40 years. Only equation is in between how fast/slow it will be.
This follow your advise since 2012 all go Holland already. Even ppl in your camp like bearbearwong had a family bought a property. Go get a life la.
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The reality is most of those bought poorperly at or near peak price are underwater.
kidmad
post Sep 28 2023, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 28 2023, 07:00 PM)
The reality is most of those bought poorperly at or near peak price are underwater.
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Underwater i also get to sell la.. koi Kinrara bought in 2014 430k when I kahwin.. 2018 sold without lost 465k.
mini orchard
post Sep 28 2023, 08:29 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Sep 28 2023, 07:24 PM)
Underwater i also get to sell la.. koi Kinrara bought in 2014 430k when I kahwin.. 2018 sold without lost 465k.
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Gross profit, Nett Loss.
kidmad
post Sep 28 2023, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(mini orchard @ Sep 28 2023, 08:29 PM)
Gross profit, Nett Loss.
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Yeah especially on the legal fee part and first few years three focus are on interest. Anyway i wouldn't want to keep that property have to let it go.
PAChamp
post Sep 29 2023, 10:21 AM

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From experience, the market is need driven and sentiment driven. Even if an old property gives good ROI, some people won't bite. But some new properties logically will not give you good ROI, people also buy....
kenzotaj
post Sep 29 2023, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(mini orchard @ Sep 28 2023, 08:29 PM)
Gross profit, Nett Loss.
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Ouuch... Sighhh.... imagine if keep for another 10 year till now .. New launch Irama III is lowest from 1.45mil.
I myself made mistake of selling off my mahkota cheras land prop too early.. Now my motto is land prop keep until double to triple b4 selling.
SUSNihonmaru
post Sep 29 2023, 08:07 PM

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For landed.

The original price needs to rise until sum of your renovation then plus the inflation then only you breakeven.

Not to mention you need to think about the interest you have paid for the instalment.
Aldo-Kirosu
post Sep 30 2023, 10:47 AM

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Flip game profit highly shared by guru, 2010 year property bull run, use compress loan buy 10 unit landed at Bandar Kinrara / setia alam kind of area. Once completed vped, 9 unit sell into subsale market and earn a lot of profit.

No more this legand story since rpgt, lock in period, and banned for compress loan.

Yeah I ever rent at pj terrace room near ss2 and stay with the owner. She shared with me she bought the house 50year ago with the price 90k, now a day her property worth 1million. But is it worth?

Compare to her house, at 50year ago if some one ready smart in investment who bought few acre land at place like setia alam, or puchong or Subang now a day it will be few million. And if for people who bought factory during that time (Malaysia start focus to be manufacturing & export country). The factory price now a day also few million.

But it's different choice of property investment at old time. Back to today, I saw government was start focusing back to Malaysia industrial masterplan 2.0, not sure is it factory will be hot investment product?
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 30 2023, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Aldo-Kirosu @ Sep 30 2023, 10:47 AM)
Flip game profit highly shared by guru, 2010 year property bull run, use compress loan buy 10 unit landed at Bandar Kinrara / setia alam kind of area. Once completed vped, 9 unit sell into subsale market and earn a lot of profit.

No more this legand story since rpgt, lock in period, and banned for compress loan.

Yeah I ever rent at pj terrace room near ss2 and stay with  the owner. She shared with me she bought the house 50year ago with the price 90k, now a day her property worth 1million. But is it worth?

Compare to her house, at 50year ago if some one ready smart in investment who bought few acre land at place like setia alam, or puchong or Subang now a day it will be few million. And if for people who bought factory during that time (Malaysia start focus to be manufacturing & export country). The factory price now a day also few million.

But it's different choice of property investment at old time. Back to today, I saw government was start focusing back to Malaysia industrial masterplan 2.0, not sure is it factory will be hot investment product?
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Touching on factory investment, if u started in 60s then its now 50yo prop easily. Can't justify the ROI liddat cos to sustain the low demand back then could oledi bankrupt some investors n filter out huge number of them.

Back then it's buying for own use but not yet an investment tool. Those tat hav been in lyn prop discussion long enuf ll know siudai mentioned bout fac more than 10yrs ago. I reckon each type of prop ll hav their own hay days but doesn't mean the particular product won't hav a rebound later on.

Just for sharing, flipping game is long gone for most project but not the selective few. Fac wise if one bot 15yrs ago I can assure the value is x3 at least by now provided the loc is right. 1 of my vested fac is x5 now after 16yrs due to some important catalyst. Another is onli x2 after 10yrs due to alternative product but very gd n stable rental having the same tenant since day 1.

M2c

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Sep 30 2023, 03:51 PM
kennie
post Sep 30 2023, 03:43 PM

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Location, location and location, no matter how bad is the industry/economy, locations and inflation still pushing these properties positively
zack.gap
post Sep 30 2023, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(kennie @ Sep 30 2023, 03:43 PM)
Location, location and location, no matter how bad is the industry/economy, locations and inflation still pushing these properties positively
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Once again I'd like to reiterate that location is NOT everything. For example, you buy a SOVO unit (<500 sqft) near to KLCC for 3-4 million got make sense meh? Whereas the same SOVO unit size, located in Kg Selamat, but priced at ~300k at least allow you to cover mortgage + maintenance.

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