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 2024 Property Outlook

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PAChamp
post Sep 25 2023, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 25 2023, 10:50 AM)
Materials and labour price rise has zero impact on completed poorperly. why one must buy overpriced new launch and not consider subsale?
How relevant is poorperly price in bkk, sg, pnh, etc to dwellers in kv?
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Sub-sale prices do rise in tandem with new launch prices. The impact is not direct but indirect. But i am sure you knew that already.

Buying new, there is a very dedicated and concentrated team to "secure" buyers with lots of freebies, easy entry, rewards etc. Buy sub-sale and a lot of things you have to do your self. Nowadays a lot of folks got no ready cash in the amounts required to buy sub-sale and thus have to buy new. Although by buying new, they are actually buying at market rate (unless they know somebody high up in the developer's office). In sub-sale, there is better chance at finding a bargain.
icemanfx
post Sep 25 2023, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(Cavatzu @ Sep 25 2023, 11:03 AM)
Geez dude we don’t live in a silo. Everything is relative. We all use various metrics for comparison’s sake. Don’t know what job you do if benchmarking was never a thing.

They have made financing easier for new launches compared to subsale even if it’s not a better deal. Also the cultural preference for virgin toilet bowls is pervasive.
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New launch price could be exorbitant but in reality, transacted subsale price didn't rise as fast or as high as new launch.

low entry cost doesn't equal to affordable, is often a trap.

icemanfx
post Sep 25 2023, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(PAChamp @ Sep 25 2023, 12:56 PM)
Sub-sale prices do rise in tandem with new launch prices. The impact is not direct but indirect. But i am sure you knew that already.

Buying new, there is a very dedicated and concentrated team to "secure" buyers with lots of freebies, easy entry, rewards etc. Buy sub-sale and a lot of things you have to do your self. Nowadays a lot of folks got no ready cash in the amounts required to buy sub-sale and thus have to buy new. Although by buying new, they are actually buying at market rate (unless they know somebody high up in the developer's office). In sub-sale, there is better chance at finding a bargain.
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Transacted price of most older condo in kv remain at pre-2014 level. taking developer's spa price as the market price almost certain will loss money when vp.

Cavatzu
post Sep 25 2023, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 25 2023, 12:57 PM)
New launch price could be exorbitant but in reality, transacted subsale price didn't rise as fast or as high as new launch.

low entry cost doesn't equal to affordable, is often a trap.
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Of course it doesn’t. I agree with your point and I stated it myself subsale is almost always better value.

The entire banking and developer ecosystem is to incentivise you to buy new. Gov is happy with this like I said before due to circular economy. Subsale doesn’t benefit those fellas besides OG owner. Are they here to enrich you or themselves?

But PA is right also subsale does go up albeit at a slower pace and it’s indirect. You can leverage on the equity to buy more new units!
TSzxcv96
post Sep 25 2023, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(PAChamp @ Sep 25 2023, 10:00 AM)
The covid days were the best times for those wanting to pick up "cheap" property. Some buyers still expect properties to be cheap like those days. We can see that the auction prices have also been steadily rising generally as newer launches are getting more pricey or more dense. Crash is not going to happen because if it did it would have happened during covid. Forest city is an anomaly in Malaysia because Malaysian developers know our market and would never have developed and launched so many units at one time. The China developers fuelled by easy credit constructed a lot all at once because the costs were lower when more units built at one time and they misread the demand. Just wondering if they were allowed to launch forest city in PJ, i think they could have killed a lot of smaller developers...
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I thought its because China Xi Jing Ping limit outshores investment cap to 50,000 RMB. Dont want outflow of capital out of China, cuz the rich are fleeing. And they have been fleeing for a long time, but just very recently China tighten up their money again
Cavatzu
post Sep 25 2023, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(zxcv96 @ Sep 25 2023, 07:07 PM)
I thought its because China Xi Jing Ping limit outshores investment cap to 50,000 RMB. Dont want outflow of capital out of China, cuz the rich are fleeing. And they have been fleeing for a long time, but just very recently China tighten up their money again
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I think with Forest City they could pay in China so that was the big get around. And that’s why it was priced like a “Shenzhen” equivalent. For local developments yea a bit more of an issue but not for the elite.
zack.gap
post Sep 25 2023, 09:16 PM

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Does anyone here think property will boom despite the elevated interest rate environment? BNM isn't going to cut anytime soon, inflation macam on the uptrend due to supply issues which may mean one last hike. Overhang for condos/apartments still damn high. MYR weakening which means costlier labour and materials. China, Europe, US property woes due to crazy hikes all around. All in all a bad time to enter the market/industry..
Chanzeryl
post Sep 26 2023, 01:39 AM

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Location and job opportunities. Period.
Cavatzu
post Sep 26 2023, 06:30 AM

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QUOTE(zack.gap @ Sep 25 2023, 09:16 PM)
Does anyone here think property will boom despite the elevated interest rate environment? BNM isn't going to cut anytime soon, inflation macam on the uptrend due to supply issues which may mean one last hike. Overhang for condos/apartments still damn high. MYR weakening which means costlier labour and materials. China, Europe, US property woes due to crazy hikes all around. All in all a bad time to enter the market/industry..
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It’s funny how people interpret things how they want to.

There’s 2 camps - you of course make perfect sense based on aggregate fundamentals then there’s the other - oh rents have gone up a minuscule of a percent and developers are still launching like mad so we must be in for a boom phase and I better buy before I’m priced out.
icemanfx
post Sep 26 2023, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(Cavatzu @ Sep 26 2023, 06:30 AM)
It’s funny how people interpret things how they want to.

There’s 2 camps - you of course make perfect sense based on aggregate fundamentals then there’s the other - oh rents have gone up a minuscule of a percent and developers are still launching like mad so we must be in for a boom phase and I better buy before I’m priced out.
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Contemporary history shows; those have vested interests tend to ignore facts and data, paint a rosy future to attract someone to take over their bag.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 26 2023, 09:42 AM
Cavatzu
post Sep 26 2023, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 26 2023, 09:24 AM)
Contemporary history shows; those have vested interests tend to ignore facts and data, paint a rosy future to attract someone to take over their bag.
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Typical SA BBB speak works on a lot of people.
zack.gap
post Sep 26 2023, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Cavatzu @ Sep 26 2023, 06:30 AM)
It’s funny how people interpret things how they want to.

There’s 2 camps - you of course make perfect sense based on aggregate fundamentals then there’s the other - oh rents have gone up a minuscule of a percent and developers are still launching like mad so we must be in for a boom phase and I better buy before I’m priced out.
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Property dev tend to have long gestation period, so this sudden influx of launches most likely started when interest rates were at an all time low, like 125 bps ago. Not to forget, listed developers are sitting on swathes of landbanks that they purchased aeons ago and need to monetise because shareholders expect certain revenue contribution reported every quarter.

Either way, with rising interest rates and high cost of everything really, I don't expect developers to escape this period unscathed. We're already seeing signs of distress in the debt market for certain developers, matter of time before it flows all over really
loyiwei
post Sep 26 2023, 11:39 AM

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Macro view only contributes 10% to a property investment success and 90% is depending on the merit of the layout/ building/ area. Be it bad market or good market, there is always opportunity to get profitable unit (Southbrooks, R22, Sunway Belfied first launch, DPC landed, Elmina etc). Happy hunting.

This post has been edited by loyiwei: Sep 26 2023, 11:39 AM
fourzee
post Sep 26 2023, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 21 2023, 09:35 AM)
If price is the key to boom; poorperly price in Taiping is cheaper than kv, why not invest in Taiping, no visa is needed.

What is more important? Affordable home price or developer profit? Contemporary history show, the higher home price, the lower the disposal income.
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Every day sure rain ..if you miss British weather then Taiping is perfect ...
jojolicia
post Sep 26 2023, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(zack.gap @ Sep 26 2023, 11:11 AM)
Property dev tend to have long gestation period, so this sudden influx of launches most likely started when interest rates were at an all time low, like 125 bps ago. Not to forget, listed developers are sitting on swathes of landbanks that they purchased aeons ago and need to monetise because shareholders expect certain revenue contribution reported every quarter.

Either way, with rising interest rates and high cost of everything really, I don't expect developers to escape this period unscathed. We're already seeing signs of distress in the debt market for certain developers, matter of time before it flows all over really
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Its still the number game with the right product that sells. The value chain must go on
Cavatzu
post Sep 26 2023, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(loyiwei @ Sep 26 2023, 11:39 AM)
Macro view only contributes 10% to a property investment success and 90% is depending on the merit of the layout/ building/ area. Be it bad market or good market, there is always opportunity to get profitable unit (Southbrooks, R22, Sunway Belfied first launch, DPC landed, Elmina etc). Happy hunting.
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This is like 10 projects over the last decade. So one a year? Majority are average, some are failures and only a few are exceptional.
zack.gap
post Sep 26 2023, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(loyiwei @ Sep 26 2023, 11:39 AM)
Macro view only contributes 10% to a property investment success and 90% is depending on the merit of the layout/ building/ area. Be it bad market or good market, there is always opportunity to get profitable unit (Southbrooks, R22, Sunway Belfied first launch, DPC landed, Elmina etc). Happy hunting.
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You should rephrase your 90% criteria. Good location, good quality and good price is what determines the merit of a property investment. Obviously if you have all 3 then no need think, just BBB. But if you only have 2 (which the vast majority has) ? Good price and good location but horrible quality. Or good location and quality, but stupidly priced. Only large macro trends (low interest rates, low overhang, more FDI, gov support etc) can save your investment.
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 26 2023, 01:20 PM

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Buy in the right location at the right time with the right unit(s)

Timing wise doesn't hav a restriction of buy at down time or not buying at high time

Certain units perform beta than other facings.

Location wise I would say it depends on one's portfolio. Eg resi Vs commi Vs industry. Gd loc for fac doesn't mean gd for resi.

Sekian kamsiah
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 27 2023, 11:54 AM

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https://www.nst.com.my/property/2023/09/959...yP9tpWbKooXGSAg

Relevant authorities should just slow down the approval for new launches especially the mismatched products at certain areas.
Cavatzu
post Sep 27 2023, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Sep 27 2023, 11:54 AM)
https://www.nst.com.my/property/2023/09/959...yP9tpWbKooXGSAg

Relevant authorities should just slow down the approval for new launches especially the mismatched products at certain areas.
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If anything, this will encourage developers to continue to launch. The data is generally positive. Product mismatch I think hopefully they’ve learnt by now as it hurts their bottom line even more for a product that can’t sell.

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