If you know how to value a company, it's less of a lottery. Still need luck to strike, but chances of profiting is almost guaranteed.

Yup. That's what they all said. Do read that link posted earlier: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ipos...gs-fail-impress

So many big names, yes? So many valuations done on them, yes? And yet... these stocks failed big time and let their IPO investors down. So was it a question that the market did not know how to value those stocks?

End of the day... it is what it is. One can lose money in an IPO and they are cases where one can turn into long term investor and yet despite holding the stocks for a long time, they are still losing money!

That's my message.

Here's one of the big name that died from that Edge article... LC Titan.



IPO price was readjusted to 6.50. Closed much lower at 5.92 during listing day.

Kenanga in its IPO research notes (16 pages long too) valued the company at 9.05



the earnings estimates was 1.473 billion for fy 2017 and 1.69 billion for fy 2018.

and how did LCTitan do?



which is way off the estimates......


yeah.... valuations ..... valuations ... valuations....




and of course, the classic teachings teaches one that proforma numbers tends to be optimistic but LCTitan actual performances was way off (which explains why since listing the stock had tanked so much!)

and yeah... LCTitan is a relisting....company listed before then delisted via privatization and then got relisted again...

and yeah... LCTitan is like dejavu all over again.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 13 2022, 06:23 PM

Not the market but blame those investment banking and market listers who just hype pre iPo prices to trap the retail and while exiting a massive profit

Retailer is at the bottom of food chain.

Basically Atm machines for them

What I mean is your own valuation, instead of relying on analyst valuation. Those published analyst report cant always believe 100%, very likely they have their own agenda.

will anyone even get fooled?

Well of course la but how many of us can dare say their valuation skills is better?

Anyway, the analyst report valuation was used as a simplistic example on how even they could get it so wrong.


And of course to complicate things further, many do get rich betting and when they strike an ipo allocation. Some of those local ipo do fly. That's a fact.

Performance of newly listed stocks since 2021...



But forget us not that there are incidents where big name IPO die big time! Strike the wrong IPO and one will be a big water fish!

actually not just tech stock. it is for most IPO in fact. even in bursa. i will avoid those IPOs / companies that have large offer for sale portion at all cost.

typically those PE / VC firm backed IPO.

Many!!!

Many still subscribed to AA recent rights issue.

valuations....... is it art, science or magic?

Asking about the birds and the bees?

hahahahahah! we all know thattttt.....

by the way, what other valuations method do you all use other than PE?

Would you do your own DCF to value a company? Since DCF is one of the most widely used valuation method.

Hehe....

For LC Titan, I blame LC Titan itself. They had that infamous water cut issue which impacted their profits greatly just before their IPO. They DID NOT disclose this issue, which would have forced them to revise their IPO proforma numbers much lower...... and yeah, subsequently the company was goreng and fined by SC. LOL!

DCF? This could easily make valuations sky high.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 14 2022, 10:43 AM

and that entire team got replaced and left the (year of zodiac) IB......

LHI Leong Hup International Bhd 6633

Never back to IPO price lulz

I also dunno how to value, but i know people who do. The IPO they recommend will mostly do well. So its not really a gamble, just see your luck if can be successful in the application.

So i wouldnt really say play IPO sure die.. if you got skills, can win.

The topic of this thread is called ipo stocks CAN die one. It doesn't say SURE die.


Rely on other ppl? Lol. If it works for u, go ahead.

And yeah, if you have your own niche in betting on ipo stocks and winning, stick to it.....



Ps.. My excel table included in that post DOES highlight a lot of IPO winners.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 14 2022, 11:15 AM

Yup. Featured on that Edge article.