Come on in and complain.............

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ipos...gs-fail-impress




This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 12 2022, 11:50 AM

Wow!!! Didn't realise that...

Yup, nothing to see until the next bunch of ipo punters lose big just like in SengHeng's IPO.....

Yup! Exactly. The IPO market is like a lottery. Even if one is lucky enough to strike the jackpot, there's nothing written in the wall that the lucky strike will even win money!
If bad cow luck, you strike a lousy ipo like SengHeng, one will end up losing money!


and yea... then of course, if one delve deeper, then there's the world of the discount for the big boys.

So far since 2021...

IGB Commercial... IPO price 1.00 Closing price on listing day 0.7
Swift Haulage...... IPO price 1.03 Closing price on listing day 0.96
SenHeng............. IPO price 1.07 Closing price on listing day 0.855




*sorry for error since IGB Comm IPO reference price is much complex*

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 13 2022, 05:19 PM

Thanks for the correction!

Now looks too complicate for me to count. Hohoho....


Anyway.... here's an interesting stat for stats lovers....

Most of the IPO stocks listed since 2021, on listing day, they tend to close LOWER than its opening price (15 out of 19 or 78.9%)



which means... if one is a betting person... on average, one tends to lose money if one buys the stock on its listing day!





* yeah... some will say 'screw the stats'....

Yup. That's what they all said. Do read that link posted earlier: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ipos...gs-fail-impress

So many big names, yes? So many valuations done on them, yes? And yet... these stocks failed big time and let their IPO investors down. So was it a question that the market did not know how to value those stocks?

End of the day... it is what it is. One can lose money in an IPO and they are cases where one can turn into long term investor and yet despite holding the stocks for a long time, they are still losing money!

That's my message.

Here's one of the big name that died from that Edge article... LC Titan.



IPO price was readjusted to 6.50. Closed much lower at 5.92 during listing day.

Kenanga in its IPO research notes (16 pages long too) valued the company at 9.05



the earnings estimates was 1.473 billion for fy 2017 and 1.69 billion for fy 2018.

and how did LCTitan do?



which is way off the estimates......


yeah.... valuations ..... valuations ... valuations....




and of course, the classic teachings teaches one that proforma numbers tends to be optimistic but LCTitan actual performances was way off (which explains why since listing the stock had tanked so much!)

and yeah... LCTitan is a relisting....company listed before then delisted via privatization and then got relisted again...

and yeah... LCTitan is like dejavu all over again.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 13 2022, 06:23 PM

Well of course la but how many of us can dare say their valuation skills is better?

Anyway, the analyst report valuation was used as a simplistic example on how even they could get it so wrong.


And of course to complicate things further, many do get rich betting and when they strike an ipo allocation. Some of those local ipo do fly. That's a fact.

Performance of newly listed stocks since 2021...



But forget us not that there are incidents where big name IPO die big time! Strike the wrong IPO and one will be a big water fish!

Many!!!

Many still subscribed to AA recent rights issue.

Asking about the birds and the bees?

Hehe....

For LC Titan, I blame LC Titan itself. They had that infamous water cut issue which impacted their profits greatly just before their IPO. They DID NOT disclose this issue, which would have forced them to revise their IPO proforma numbers much lower...... and yeah, subsequently the company was goreng and fined by SC. LOL!

DCF? This could easily make valuations sky high.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 14 2022, 10:43 AM

The topic of this thread is called ipo stocks CAN die one. It doesn't say SURE die.


Rely on other ppl? Lol. If it works for u, go ahead.

And yeah, if you have your own niche in betting on ipo stocks and winning, stick to it.....



Ps.. My excel table included in that post DOES highlight a lot of IPO winners.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 14 2022, 11:15 AM

Yup. Featured on that Edge article.

Thanks for the share!!

And then there's the sticky issue about LHI IPO....

cause it was once listed and like LC Titan, this was basically a relisting.

Internet searches would quickly showed that during the privatization of Leong Hup, many had complained that the owners delisted the company at a very cheap valuation.
It was delisted on 2012 and relisted 2019.
When it was delisted the offer made for the privatization was 300 million plus.
During the relisting, based on LHI ipo price, the company was valued at 4 billion....



the disconnect was there, no?

delisted at a cheap price, relisting price high, high.....

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/leon...longawaited-ipo



That was from the edge article before listing .... LHI had a PAT of 247 million for fy2017.... and nice annual growth rates....

but after listing....






and this is why some of those superinvestors like unker Buffett had mentioned that they do not invest in IPOs.....



* other reference links: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...cklustre-debut/

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 14 2022, 01:50 PM

And how about Siab Holdings?

IPO price of 30 sen.

Opened at 31 sen. Briefly reached a high of 34 sen. Closed at 30.5 sen?

An IPO winner?

not even 12 trading days later....

LOL!!! Yeah IPO winner for one day only.... (where the meat???)


the 34 sen was on offer for the first 10 mins only....

the 10 min chart



and if don't sell on the first day.... ahem....

Not mine too!!!