In order to help you to see a clearer picture , I use KLCI as an example :-

KLCI started from about Year 80 with 100 pts . Right now even with recession fear , it is trading above 1300 pts, meaning it is always on the upwards trend, but not a a single straight line up. In between, there are Asia Crisis, Sept 11, SARS etc that cause serious corrections.

If an investor let say jump off or sell off during the crisis would tend to suffer more or losing money. Those stay put would eventually be able to sell at a gain.

And those prepared to invest more ( do dollor cost averaging ) during the crisis would tend to gain further bcos they get more units.

That is why we are promoting Unit Trust as 5 more years time horizon investments.

Currently, it is my personal opinion that China this year could be in a consolidating due to overheating of economy and impact of US economy, but should be good in the medium term.

If you are medium term investor, the impact on you would be less though current price is low.

For equity fund whether you are prepared to switch to bond fund partially when price or valuation is high or stay put is your personal choice. Balance fund is in 50% equity and 50% bond, and it stays invested in that manner, might not take advantage when market is low or high


Again, from KLCI chart, it is not upwards on a straight line.

Public Mutual has the softwares to show you whether to stay invested or stop investing according to past chartings. You would see a clearer picture if you go through the softwares and investing with virtual money. Dollar cost averaging downwards do have certain advantages.

You can approach your agent to discuss further.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 19 2008, 12:35 AM

>> And those prepared to invest more ( do dollor cost averaging ) during the crisis would tend to gain further bcos they get more units.

This works best *if* the investor has also been divesting when the market is good.

>> Currently, it is my personal opinion that China this year could be in a consolidating due to overheating of economy and impact of US economy, but should be good in the medium term.

I share the same opinion, but wanted to see what other people think when I asked the question about the 2 China funds.

>> For equity fund whether you area prepared to switch to bond fund partially when price or valuation is high or stay put is your personal choice. Balance fund is in 50% equity and 50% bond, and it stays invested in that manner, might not take advantage when market is low.

Different funds have different percentages for "balanced" funds, but the idea is that the percentages should not be exceeded. So using your 50/50 example, when equities are going up the percentage would increase to greater than 50%, so the manager should sell some to bring the balance back to nearer 50%. Conversely, when equities are down, the percentage would decrease so the manager should buy some more. In theory, at least.

>> Public Mutual has the softwares to show you whether to stay invested or stop investing according to past chartings. You would see a clearer picture iif you go through the softwares and investing with virtual money. Dollar cor averaging down wards have certain advantages.
>> You can approach your agent to discuss further.

That's news to me. I will talk to my agent next time. Thanks.

As long as they said something in a more neutral point of stand, and not totally meant or try to sell their product when commenting, then any opinion are welcomed which will only benefit all of us.

I had actually invested 15k into a PB Asean Mutual fund about half a year ago. Now, it has grew to 17k within half a year!! its very good profit i think

One good advice is never to time the market.
We won't know what could happen next, as the market could go up a lot today, just to come down a lot tomorrow.
We've seen a lot of people stuck because they try to time it.
So, just do some reading and analysing. If you invest with fundamentals, don't worry about timing.

I think you are talking about PB Asean Dividend Fund?
I invested in it too, and it really performed for me.
Got 15% profit from that fund too around 5 months.
It was the second best fund to my PCSF

As my earlier discussions.

I personally prefer Consumer Fund, i.e might have a better potential over PCSF . might be wrong anyway. Too early to tell.

Asean regional funds should be good too, no doubt about it.

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Added on February 20, 2008, 1:11 pmP/S : I pick Consumer Theme over China Theme.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 20 2008, 01:11 PM

I disagree with the advice because it is only part of the story.

Fundamentals are important, of course. But one should not ignore timing altogether.

One can never tell for sure what's going to happen next, but one should be able to tell the difference between bull and bear markets.

If one believe the fundamentals for a particular stock or fund for the long term is good, then it is better to buy in a bear market, and hold off buying (or at least not buy so much) in a bull market. NASDAQ is a good example of what happens if you go in at the wrong time - it was at a peak in year 2000, and 8 years later it is just half of what it was.

Timing is also an indicator of fundamentals. In a bull market, when people are chasing the price up and up, you can almost be sure that whatever you are buying is not going to be cheap relative to the fundamentals. Besides, as far as the China funds/shares are concerned, I suspect there is far more sentiment than fundamentals involved.

PCSF started in Jun, 07. Now it is sitting at (minus) -6%. And that is only if you had gone in when the fund started. If you had gone in at a later (read much higher) price, the loss is even worse. It is difficult to see how that can be defined a "best fund" in any terms.

It should be like that, you don't need to timing exactly when is the lowest or highest. But you need to time roughly (don't need exactly) when the market is too high/expensive or market is low or cheap. You don't buy when market is too expensive or bubble time. But when market is reasonable cheap then you buy, don't need to time the lowest. On the other hand, you sell if market is on bubble or too expensive to hold but don't need to sell at highest.

Basically, it is like that
You don't time the daily movement but you need to 'time' or know the market whether it is high or low roughly.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 20 2008, 04:54 PM

China inflation rate is above 7% in the month of January 08, could be double digit for February 08.

Food inflation as high as 17%.

just read a research paper.

Anybody got idea how to capture the whole page of the closing prices in 1 image file?

Right now I have to split to 4 images due to my screen resolution

Yes, I do agree on the bold part
I was referring to your previous question "Have they reached the bottom yet, or could drop further?"
Of course I do mean the bear market when I stated that, but I do not mean to completely avoid the market condition.
Hope I could clear this misunderstanding a bit

I was advised by my agent today to sell back my PFES funds with over 40 - 60% Net profit. Had a few funds of PFES since 2005. The market is too volatile, time to take the profits and come back later...

How much do Unit Trust agents make when they sell for you ?

There is no service charge / exit charge being imposed by Public Mutual for selling/redemption of Unit Trust fund.

So, your agent is not making any commission by selling it for you. But she might make commission if she later ask you to go back in n buy again...which is the 5.5% service charge.

If she ask you to switch instead, you need to pay rm25 transaction fees only and there is no extra service charge, and agent will not make commission from this as well.

SO, it might be better to switch into Bond fund instead of taking the $ out and go back in later to be charge 5.5% service charge again. If you do plan to take out d $ & not reinvesting it in PM Unit Trust later, then it is ok to sell

Wah looking back your crystal ball not bad lah!!!

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Added on February 20, 2008, 11:35 pmThanks for the valuable info...How did you know it was a SHE

Switching may be a better option like you said but a bit worried with the current trends...I'm looking at close to 22k - 25k accumulated gain from the last 3 years

This post has been edited by gsdev: Feb 20 2008, 11:35 PM

I juz simply type only...dunno ur agent is a she oso


Your concerns are not unfounded...in these kind of market everyone is worried...Anyway, Bond Fund generally are quite safe, instead, it has move quite fast during the market downturn as people will turn their money to keep in Bond...a safer investment.

Else, you can consider taking it out and keep in FD...more safe. But just have to pay another round of service charge when you re-enter. But if you think this way is more comfortable and can preserve your profit better...go ahead.
Judge your own...

I kinda set my mind on reaping the profits first...never actually sold before, always just pumped in more $...Thanks again for the info and advise. I will still have some PFES, PIEF PIDF invests in, only taking out which shows more than 40% above Net profits so far. I eventually will invest again. Ironicaly just got my Gold member card yeterday , hehe now looking at pulling back some.

If you are a Mutual Gold member ady, switching is free...

Good to hear you get a considerably very good return in your investment