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 Covid19 and MCO effect on properties, Q&A Session on the effects

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nexona88
post Apr 20 2020, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 01:35 PM)
This agent high fever.  laugh.gif
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๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ˜‚

So bad of u ๐Ÿ˜‹
nexona88
post Apr 20 2020, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 02:00 PM)
Only those who has experienced AFC 1997 would understand.
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Well that time very serious..
This time might be even worse ๐Ÿ˜ฃ
2387581
post Apr 20 2020, 02:49 PM

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would this present an opportunity for me to buy a place for own stay at reasonable price?
Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 20 2020, 02:32 PM)
๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ˜‚

So bad of u ๐Ÿ˜‹
*
I'm not going to go into the intricacies to explain why a correction that deep will not happen.

To keep it simple, for asset price to fall that much the rental yield will have to fall significantly.

With no sharp excess supply pouring into the market it is simply not possible.

Unless COVID-20 appears and kills 90% of the world population. laugh.gif
DiRecToRofSaTaN
post Apr 20 2020, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(2387581 @ Apr 20 2020, 02:49 PM)
would this present an opportunity for me to buy a place for own stay at reasonable price?
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The right time to buy if you are having a lot of dough to spare in this trying times.
icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(AHGS14 @ Apr 20 2020, 02:19 PM)
An interesting question to ask is how many of the launched and in progress projects will be completed, instead of being abandoned.ย  I think it's common practise for developers to incorporate individual pte ltd company to undertake each project to insulate the holding company. The bigger companies may be worried about the damage to their reputation should they walk away from a loss making project.ย  Many other SME developers may care less and simply declare bankruptcy for the project company as we have witnessed many past cases of abandoned projects during economic downturns.ย  The banks will own the "project", land & whatever uncompleted buildings and lelong it out to new owner.ย  If banks had disbursed partially loans taken up, would buyers end up owing the banks and need to repay the loans with interest but with no property, nothing to show?
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Only if you know how many plc and big time developers are in talk on restructuring.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 20 2020, 02:34 PM)
Wellย  that time very serious..
This time might be even worse ๐Ÿ˜ฃ
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Yes, this recession will be worse and longer than AFC 97.

QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 02:56 PM)
I'm not going to go into the intricacies to explain why a correction that deep will not happen.

To keep it simple, for asset price to fall that much the rental yield will have to fall significantly.

With no sharp excess supply pouring into the market it is simply not possible.

Unless COVID-20 appears and kills 90% of the world population.ย  laugh.gif
*
Most if not all contractors, suppliers, service providers, etc to developer received multiple contra units. It is not at all surprised for them to offload at substantial cheaper price for cash flow.

If one knows where to look could find.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 20 2020, 03:23 PM
Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 03:19 PM)
Most if not all contractors, suppliers, service providers, etc to developer received multiple contra units. It is not at all surprised for them to offload at substantial cheaper price for cash flow.

If one knows where to look could find.
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That is a fair assumption, correction is to be expected. But nowhere that as deep and wide, and will be short lived.

This post has been edited by Zwean: Apr 20 2020, 03:43 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 03:32 PM)
That is a fair assumption, correction is to be expected. But nowhere that as deep and wife, and will be short lived.
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The elephant in the room is overhang/unsold/idling units in both primary and secondary market.

Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 03:35 PM)
The elephant in the room is overhang/unsold/idling units in both primary and secondary market.
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Developers have already and will slow down launches in the short medium term.

For those that are not strong, let them wind up.

Pity the buyers.
icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 03:40 PM)
Developers have already and will slow down launches in the short medium term.

For those that are not strong, let them wind up.

Pity the buyers.
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Poorperly overhang in primary market is still widening.

Many developers bought land bank with borrowing from bank or bonds, is incurring interest. They are more likely to launch cheaper price unit soon than leaving it idle else the land could become financially not feasible to develop.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 20 2020, 03:48 PM
kochin
post Apr 20 2020, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(AHGS14 @ Apr 20 2020, 02:19 PM)
An interesting question to ask is how many of the launched and in progress projects will be completed, instead of being abandoned.  I think it's common practise for developers to incorporate individual pte ltd company to undertake each project to insulate the holding company. The bigger companies may be worried about the damage to their reputation should they walk away from a loss making project.  Many other SME developers may care less and simply declare bankruptcy for the project company as we have witnessed many past cases of abandoned projects during economic downturns.  The banks will own the "project", land & whatever uncompleted buildings and lelong it out to new owner.  If banks had disbursed partially loans taken up, would buyers end up owing the banks and need to repay the loans with interest but with no property, nothing to show?
*
Your assumptions are largely correct.

Small to Mid even some Big developers may choose to forsake and abandon projects. As almost all developers uses a subsidiary to undertake developments, the parent company would be shielded from the limited liabilities.
And yes, owners who financed their purchases would need to repay the loans disbursed including interest but with no property.
Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 05:36 PM

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Lmao Tony beh tahan
kochin
post Apr 20 2020, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 03:19 PM)

Yes, this recession will be worse and longer than AFC 97.



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i am cautiously optimistic that our country may not suffered much from this and expected to recover with a strong pace.
the last few days has shown very encouraging results and the bank moratorium provided a very huge relief on a lot of parties.

take china for example. start of epidemic to lockdown to uplifting. what is the total period and its implication towards their economy and growth?
and by drawing similar comparison of theirs to us, i can see similarities.

fingers crossed the worst has already passed.

icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 20 2020, 05:38 PM)
i am cautiously optimistic that our country may not suffered much from this and expected to recover with a strong pace.
the last few days has shown very encouraging results and the bank moratorium provided a very huge relief on a lot of parties.

take china for example. start of epidemic to lockdown to uplifting. what is the total period and its implication towards their economy and growth?
and by drawing similar comparison of theirs to us, i can see similarities.

fingers crossed the worst has already passed.
*
What is happening in China will similarly happen to us later. However, most if not all plc and big companies in China are soe, have almost unlimited backing and resources to sustain.

Pboc has wide range of tools and more resources available to support the market e.g property, stocks that may not available to bnm.

If one has access to news for domestic consumption could find sme and private enterprise in China are facing cash flow difficulty, cancelled orders, substantial dropped in revenue, etc, many could soon close or down size especially those in retail.

Given many companies and individuals are over geared in this country; if lockdown is earthquake, there will be tsunami.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-econo...ts-crush-demand

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 20 2020, 06:21 PM
SUSnot timid and slow
post Apr 20 2020, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(koja6049 @ Apr 18 2020, 01:50 PM)
if you compare to fd, it's now only 2.65%...  hmm.gif
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ambank FD promo 3.5% for 6 or 12 months


QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 02:56 PM)
I'm not going to go into the intricacies to explain why a correction that deep will not happen.

To keep it simple, for asset price to fall that much the rental yield will have to fall significantly.

With no sharp excess supply pouring into the market it is simply not possible.

Unless COVID-20 appears and kills 90% of the world population.  laugh.gif
*
thank you for your succint summary. i think you are corect. people still need a place to stay , regardless of whether they buy or rent.

our population will continue growing. urban areas will continue to host foreign labor.
icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(not timid and slow @ Apr 20 2020, 08:49 PM)
ambank FD promo 3.5% for 6 or 12 months
thank you for your succint summary. i think you are corect. people still need a place to stay , regardless of whether they buy or rent.

our population will continue growing. urban areas will continue to host foreign labor.
*
Population growth rate is slowing down and in about 2030, this country will become ageing nation.

So foreign labours will stay in high rise condo?

If demand is rising, how to explain property overhang?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 20 2020, 08:53 PM
Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 08:53 PM)
Population growth rate is slowing down and in about 2030, this country will become ageing nation.

So foreign labours will stay in high rise condo?

If demand is rising, how to explain property overhang?
*
"Ageing" not aged.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/318690/...on-in-malaysia/

2030 median age estimate of Malaysia is at 34.1.
SUSnot timid and slow
post Apr 20 2020, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 08:53 PM)
Population growth rate is slowing down and in about 2030, this country will become ageing nation.

So foreign labours will stay in high rise condo?

If demand is rising, how to explain property overhang?
*
ageing people still need to stay somewhere , correct ?

foreign labor will stay in medium cost high rise housing , with 6-8 people per unit.
icemanfx
post Apr 20 2020, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(Zwean @ Apr 20 2020, 08:57 PM)
"Ageing" not aged.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/318690/...on-in-malaysia/

2030 median age estimate of Malaysia is at 34.1.
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https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019/12/...eing-population

QUOTE(not timid and slow @ Apr 20 2020, 08:59 PM)
ageing people still need to stay somewhere , correct ?

foreign labor will stay in medium cost high rise housing , with 6-8 people per unit.
*
How to define medium cost high rise?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 20 2020, 09:25 PM
Zwean
post Apr 20 2020, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 20 2020, 09:18 PM)
34.1 is not an aged nation.

Median age is still young relative to other first world countries.

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