Hahahaha. You're really a comedy. Why a comedy? I find you've just shot your own foot. It's funny and embarrassing. I'll elaborate.

We now have a fair idea why you find my posts and reasonings insurmountable. You admit you don't spend time reading any of my posts, then it's perfectly normal for you not to get it. Because you've never read it. It not even that my reasonings are insurmountable, it's unfathomable that you would understand my posts - you've never read it

Oh boy, this is at another level. At least Predator was reading but just aren't fastidious enough. I was right when I opined that, when faced with persons of your level (calibre), there's only so much we can expect

So much for your opinions about me... Big words used in accusation, I.e. delusions, grandeur, I can do no wrong, gibberish.... It's all empty words, ....

Read and understand false dichotomy. Because you're full of it. The world is not black or white. A project is not only good or bad. It's about weighing upsides and downsides and then matching it to your needs, wants and risk calculations

Positive opinions doesn't in any mean it's a "number one project". That's a false dichotomy you continue to peddle in your mind. And certainly I have not ever make any claim that I can do no wrong. It's all in your mind.

This statement of yours, , is aptly directed at Predator instead IMHO. She/he has shown this multiple times throughout this forum and throughout my exchanges with her/him.

You can continue embarrassing yourself if you wish. But if you don't have anything substantive to add. You're wasting all our time. My advice, learn to back up your strong claims or accusations with equally potent elaboration, or else people will soon learn to not take you seriously, regardless if you have made one or more points in the past that are valid. I'll say it, I've found some of your points and opinions valid.

You've made valid points in the past. But at this juncture, seeing so much infantile outburst from you. I've found you wanting, to say the very least. And insufferable.

This post has been edited by when2meets2boy: Oct 17 2021, 12:42 AM

I'll start my views with, we don't know what we don't know, but we can extrapolate from what we see and what we hear

Last we read before the pandemic, the mall was already in dire straits. Losing tenants, incomplete construction, even the main attraction - the ice rink was reported to be in terrible state

I would expect the pandemic to "kill off" much of what tenant left

But on the flip side, we know that Empire City Mall "is too big to fail" for EXSIM. It's also tied to the EXSIM JV, so they would have to deliver. It also helps that DCP value proposition is tied to ECM as the value proposition (selling point). So it's mission #1 for EXSIM to revive it

What we do know. DASH is still ongoing. Sky deck/Sky garden connecting ECM to DCP is being constructed. There is also a cash infusion for ECM with "rubber glove windfall money" being added to the revive ECM JV (Refer to page 20-21 of this thread, the news article is there).

We also know EXSIM successfully gotten its second tranche of loans from UOB/sukuk providers by "monetizing" their sales success for phase 1,2,3 of DCP. (Refer to news article in page 22-23)

So,in my opinion. ECM is dead now.
But there are current positive indicators that it will be revived. Just keep monitoring.

I mean what else in Empire City can be salvaged to revive the veneer - the lowest hanging fruit is ECM. So it will likely be the first component of Empire City to be revived.

A few posts up @flight brought up the issue if "expensive steel", which is a significant headwind since late 2020. And I added an opinion that what we need to watch as an indicator (if EXSIM can weather the storm) will be to watch it's cashflow.

I feel I need to elaborate. So it warrant a quick discussion and overview of the "expensive steel" situation, the undercurrents and the future predictions

This article give a concise and easily readable piece for us to explore the topic.

EdgeProp.my: Would the rising cost of construction materials lead to house price hike?.
https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1857228/wou...ouse-price-hike

A few salient points mentioned in the article IMO.
1. the rise in steel price is a direct consequence of the pandemic way back in 2020.
2. however the key reasons for this is logistics, shutdown of steel mills during lockdowns, low demand due to stop in construction/industry during the pandemic (steel mills have to reduce supply to adjust), and then the spike in demand due to economic reopening in China.
3. Hence the article posits that with normalizing economies, supply, demand post 2021, steel price should normalize
4. The coal crunch in China recently should also throw another spanner into 2021 Q4 steel supply, since China is rationing coal, impacting steel mills.
5. Another upside is Malaysia has its own steel mills, and iron ore supply has no issues. In fact, recently, there is a drive by the steel production "guild" of Malaysia to secure tariffs to foreign steel. Which means the guild meants to fulfill the local demand and the government wants to encourage this so that Malaysia can be self sufficient. It's complex,. but price and supply is expected to normalize. The tariffs mentioned here are abour renewal of existing lapsing tariff, so there's nothing new here to "screw" steel price.

Finally, that out if the way. Now why I think watching EXSIM's cash flow is a good indicator of the health of DCP

First clue, the recent relevation that EXSIM's model for financing and securing the loans is based on how well they sell the project. Hence, I would posit that despite the steel price pressures that is predicted to raise property prices, EXSIM would have to keep their launches at an attractive price point to continue to monetize sales records to get more loans

Second clue. Most of the DCP ongoing phases and also the plan to revive ECM, build Mossas, and contruct "niceties" such as skydeck/sky garden/road connectivity - ALL are hatched before 2020-2021. If we follow standard QS and construction best practices, steel price would have been priced in and supply hedged to allow construction to continue unabated. In short, the industry don't buy steel on Monday to construct on Friday. So, I reckon current DCP phases should be cushioned. But we don't know what we don't know unless we have a spy inside EXSIM

Which leads me to third point. Cash flow. Regardless of whether EXSIM planned for the expensive steel or not, in the worse case scenario, to make sure it's business as usual, you will have to buy steel, even if it's priced more. This is when cashflow is key. Watch EXSIM's cashflow

Cashflow is how MAMMOTH Empire got killed, dooming Empire City and Empire Residence. EXSIM's financing strategic plans seems to indicate they don't want to repeat MAMMOTH EMPIRE'S mistake

And in extension, watch how EXSIM's creditors view the health of EXSIM. I.e. if UOB suddenly talks bad of EXSIM, or it fails to secure the third tranche, then red flags!!!!

Then there can also be a scenario that EXSIM cut corners. Of course other commentators have pointed this out. You pay peanuts you get monkeys. So don't have overexpectations. Keep your expectations to what is promised in your S&P and official marketing material (Like what Predator says)

I would think EXSIM will not be stupid to deliver below expectations (below what's promised in S&P)

Main reason. DCP is not only phase 1,2,3,4 it's more. Tearing up its reputation would repeat Mammoth's mistake. What's the point of taking up all the risks to invest into a JV to fix Empire City and make money with DCP if EXSIM repeats Mammoth Empire's Archilles heel.? Nothing to gain cutting corners. They will likely built to spec (S&P, also like others have said, D series spec)

Oversupply of residential is the key headwind faced by EXSIM, so it's is likely they will keep churning out Residential phases before "FOMO investors" wise up.

Shouldn't becomr a problem for buy to stay buyers since they've priced in their affordability, the property's value proposition and their needs. You won't get this price in mature PJ for the entry level offerings. Like Predator said, don't rush to buy based on pretenses. Read the S&P before you sign.

In the short to middle term, If EXSIM wants to keep up the momentum, they'll have to add more value proposition besides the ECM and the offices. They will need new value propositions to add value against the competition,

so I am optimistic that before they launch DCP commercial phases, they will have to do something to freshen their marketing and add new snazzy value propositions. I

IMO, if they don't do this, how do they differentiate DCP commercial Vs Empire City commercial..these two will be direct competitors and the fact is EXSIM can't earn much to anything at all from EC commercial phases that is already built and sold.

It could be new snazzy attractions at ECM or maybe something at the Rock face (hahaha I expect Predator will be incensed by this "imagination")

My 2 cents with some casual careful analysis of what's available in the public domain. Read the articles. Read my reasonings. Critically analyse them. Would like to hear your own opinions and analysis. But don't do empty naysaying that gives strong opinions but provides no elaboration....

This post has been edited by when2meets2boy: Oct 17 2021, 01:52 AM

8, 9: Thank you for your perspectives and POV for ECM in point 8, 9. Give us another aspect to think about. Wbich adds another indicator to monitor - the revival of ECM. Because we know the JV has the cash, it's now for then to prove to us how effective they are at using it for this purpose. The success of ECM would be pivotal. Since any new launches and the attractiveness of the current residential phases will be tied to the ECM. Most pundits would evaluate DCP's value with the ECM.

On, I think your perspective on the impact of steel price is superior. You're right that the steel price affects construction directly, which is now. I was fixated with preplanning and quantity survey in my analysis, Which is in hindsight incorrect. There is a risk that when EXSIM priced in the current cost of steel, if they cannot take the price pressure, they will have to adjust the future property price. So in short, early buyers would have benefited from the lower entry price point, while future phases might see a rise in price offered

I doubt EXSIM will reprice the existing unsold Inventory, as it would risk a negative backlash from existing buyers, which is counter productive to their strategy to sell as much as they can.

As for point 10, a lot of the infrastructure seems to be DASH, a was in the vicinity just now, the EXSIM specific constructions looks to be more focused on the sky deck and garden. They will need to start working in the existing incomplete Empire City infrastructure soon though, because their Mossas is there.

All is all, EXSIM's cash flow health (management of cashflow) is a key indicator. And how this cash flow translate into sales performance or revival or delivering KPI is another key thing to watch. Because their loans seems to be tied directly to this metric.

Yes, as for the rock face park, I also think it's not going to be short to mid term. It's an opportunity to tap if EXSIM finds there is a need to sizzle up marketing of future phases.

End product quality for the Empire City portion will always be a question mark, as it's building on shaky quality inherited from Mammoth Empire. And a lot of commentators mentioned D series as the benchmark for the phase 1, 2, 3. That's a good perspective. But we'll never know, developer's only care for their bottom line and Malaysians are easy to forget if you wow them with snazzy marketing. I guess exisiting buyers should keep taking about such concerns and how they believe in EXSIM and will be angry if EXSIM betray this trust. Make it a recurring talkpoint. EXSIM will take notice. And this might work to temper their bottomline considerations.

The whole DCP marketing as it stands seems to hinge on FOMO. So prospective buyers need to weigh the upside and downside. Study every line if the SPA before you sign in the dotted line.

Yes at the moment there seems to be three to five exits in the works, including direct access off and into DASH, and direct access off and into LDP. Whether they will be completed remains to be seen, but recent construction works are seen in progress if you do a site recce. https://youtu.be/t-NmJafdwTw .. we can see from the site that almost all of the illustrated road access shown on the video has its equivalents being built and completed at various degrees. I was nearby in TTDI and Kampung Palimbayan, so I drove by to have a peek. Some new photos below.


There's a few hidden gems in Kampung Palimbayan which is still there, including the used to be famous Subak, Bora Asmara and a couple of forest homestay chalets. Can visit and support if you are doubly dosed.

This post has been edited by when2meets2boy: Oct 18 2021, 11:03 PM


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EXSIM should do more and invest more effort into really sounding their own official plans, position, timeline, vision and mission for their masterplan for Damansara Central Park, like an unifying official page with all the above infomation, and then protecting the IP so that you don't see multiple urls claiming to represent Damansara Central Park

Just a cursory search and I get more than afew websites claiming to be the official, and each with its own twist and marketing of the "masterplan", it is confusing and really doesn't do well in inspiring a sense of a developer's commitment, clarity, and vision for their master plan

in short having too many cooks will spoil the broth. True, having multiple channels for marketing will definitely scale and increase sales, but having to many different messaging really just draws confusion and maybe even negative perception for their project - as evidenced by the various input and exchanges on this thread

EXSIM should think about it...... just went to their EXSIM official website, its like the Damansara Central Park isn't even an idea there. A couple of individual websites (which is good) for each of the ongoing residential development that is "somewhat considered " to be part of the DCP masterplan, but dig into these official websites for each project, no (?) mention of masterplan...

one have to really wonder what strategy is EXSIM going about? anyone in the know?

This post has been edited by when2meets2boy: Mar 2 2022, 01:23 AM


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