16% annualised over 45 days is 2%. Now think about markets going up n down 0.2 to 0.6% per day sometimes and 2% per day once or twice in a year.

My 2nd part of my advice, don't analyse the market over short term helps me sleep at night.

Over the long term, yes everyone who invested long enough know the returns, annualized and compounded. It will be as stashaway advertised.

7 to 8% with lower risk than stashaway? Do tell.

Gold while it does recently give a reasonable return does not have a great risk vs return, right? Sharpe ratio of 0.65 over 3 yrs.

In any case I'm well aware of the returns from stashaway. I've invested since 2019. But again to expect something above 10% over 20 years....thats something....

Good discussion.

beating is one thing, many things beat gold too. Many things also beat stashaway, or S&P500.

Example Tesla, Amazon, bitcoin, rubber gloves. The metric one should remember is risk, or standard deviation. Tesla has a standard deviation that is 5 times of S&P 500. If you put so much value at risk, it means getting your high returns are barely justified.

Just by having it in the portfolio probably will NOT beat it....

Wish - always match or exceed s&p 500.
Expectation : s&p500 is around 36% value at risk. Same as my 36% portfolio. With 99% confidence interval. Ie std deviation around 0.9% to 1% daily.
It has been tracked over many decades that it gives 8%, and 10 to 12 % recent decade.

Thanks for putting this up.
Yes, GLD has been providing annualized returns of perhaps 8-9% for the last 15 yrs.
SPY - 10% over last 15 yrs.

Backtest

I think, my hopes are anything above 2 digit growth, my expectation is 8%

It is correct. You may use my backtest link. Try until you happy.

For those of you who think lump sum entry right now is not advisable or that current market levels are “too high”.

I present to you another way of thinking this complex lump sum thingy from my perspective.

Suppose like many of us, you built your portfolio over 2 years of DCA, 1k per month. Now you have to 100k.

If suddenly thru no fault of your own, StashAway accidentally liquidates your entire holdings today, say RM50k to 100k, and they promise you no fee / no charge buyback in any way you want, will you buy back everything as is in lump sum (and get back what you had)?

Or will you think that you will DCA again, split over some arbitrary comfortable time period?

See, whichever way you do you need to be comfortable (with self assurance that this is more profitable than the other way).

If you do think the “DCA” way is surely better, May I suggest you liquidate now and do it! The only reason not is you are confident it will actually go up more than down over time isn’t it?

I learned this over some investment newsletter r and books. As of today, I’m happy to rebuy anything I have, but this is a personal thing.

Interesting. But the question is do you have the same amount of holding (in shares or in $ value) if compared to before COVID was announced....either way what’s happen in the past is in the past...

And generally speaking, as of today will you liquidate and rebuy the same things immediately or will you DCA?

It’s very important you are comfortable. And that’s all that matters. Not more money or less money.

At any age for that matter....
Pursue self sufficiency rather than a number

And thanks for teaching us young punks a thing or two about investing, dear sir/mdm

Stashaway is designed for folks like you, but the advise from MUM is extremely relevant.

You must know what you are buying which is a split basket of ETFs comprising of index funds, and usually some Gold.

Now once you know you are indexing, in a way you need to accept that it goes up and down according to the market of the fund you are buying. And if you know that then you also know that once in a while something bad happens and it can even drop 10-20% in a year, or even slightly more. THat means that in the absence of something catastrophic anything else can cause drops of 1-9% without too much "reason".

You also need to know that generally markets tend to go up over time.

after considering various options, this is the best. Especially for international holdings.

Take a longer view, recently Stashaway is underperforming SP500 due to KWEB. You can do backtest of a few years or you can see graph like this:


You can argue until the cows come home but to me, I take it as it will match SP500 eventually. Otherwise I will dump it.

Yahoo finance, if you enter you holdings in a portfolio, over time you will see a benchmark graph appear. But it takes time.

Yes.

Actually doesn’t even have to be so regular. I just put in there to track the relative movement.

the back test data does not support your hopes.

Tbh how many really bear markets can you find these days?

A proper bear market is a mini recession followed by a true recession. You need to monitor bond market and bond prices to be really sure of that. I’ve encountered 2 in my 15 years of investing. What do you really want to do at those times can make or break if you do the wrong thing whereas in both cases just doing nothing also not that bad eventually.

According to SA, their own prescribed risk index (Value at risk) of 36% IS indeed matching and equaling the the S&P 500 Risk index (this is a well known figure you can just google it).

The logic is with equal risk (standard deviation) the return should be equal.

Now, the job of SA is to make sure the standard deviation remains the same at 36% Var, and if that is the case year in year out, then if your portfolio does NOT match S&P500, then there is really no point to give SA your 0.8% fee.

Back when KWEB shot up early this year, we handily beat S&P 500 for a few months. It means nothing now that KWEB is no longer erectile, and it also means nothing if not compounded over many years....so, as many investment cases, beating S&P 500 is over long period is indeed no simple matter. It is not impossible, just improbable. I believe we will match S&P 500 and outperform it in the long run by maybe 1-2% if we are lucky.

It does beat EPF, but there is no guarantee. The thing is, if you withdraw from EPF, you are subjecting your money to RISK. Now you are the only one able to gauge the worth of taking such a risk. TBH, I will never withdraw from EPF, as I always aim to squeeze my own income for savings and investments. That is a personal thing.

You need to understand more on bonds.
Central banks judge the pace of growth, and economic expansion.
If they think equity, growth and especially inflation is getting out of hand, then they will start to raise interest rates.

When this occurs, companies who need money to invest, will need to RAISE interest on their bond coupons, beyond interest rates to attract investment. The nett effect becomes the investor then will decide that a bond coupon is actually a safer and higher yielding investment than a piece of share of the same company that issues the bonds, and also higher yielding than just saving it in banks.

This means he will either not price the share so high, or he will sell the share and buy the bond instead. This is the trigger of a bear market. This is what it means to be in the bear market.

All this is actually very natural in a capitalist accounting world. An Equity is a shareholder liability, and a bondholder is a debt liability. They both exist in the balance sheet on the same side. After the debtor, next the bondholder has the second right to collect the debt to the amount owed (Principal+interested and bonus), but has no right to a share of the profits or the assets which the shareholder has. When a company is bankrupt, the shareholder has a certificate of a proportion of the remainder of the assets which in theory you liquidate and distribute.

i think you are just joking, there is no real benefit for malaysians in the long run for a continuously weakening currency....as long as you and your children plan to live in Malaysia....