3 months later, you may be saying you should have trimmed down all in October 

2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision 

Me strategy #1 

Exited mid 2017. That time put in 15-24 months maturity and overseas property. Some starting to mature and still reinvesting back to safe products....

Because the older I get, the smaller my LP 

My 2 cents + rationale on my look ahead on this topic using one share in the last crash as example ....

Scene 1 - the ugly (damn ugly!!!)
[attachmentid=10061392]
What to do?
I don't want to see my asset loosing value like that!

Scene 2 - the pretty (too good to be true, alias mission impossible)
[attachmentid=10061393]
Cannot be that lucky to time it at the highest and at the lowest!
So what to do?

Scene 3 (later)
.....
History will not repeat exactly but it tends to follow ...

P/S No share split or share bonus during that period in my last check. I excluded dividends to simply the calculations.

PP/S  I used $100,000 as illustration to highlight the impact. Not that I have that amount. Ha.

Instead of selling before the crash or at the highest price, what about shortly after the crash?

Let me finish my Scene 3 graph.

Mini meltdown in the US stocks since Wednesday, is this the start to bigger crash or just another 'traditional' black october occurence...any thoughts?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

Truth is nobody knows, those who believe this is just a correction would have collected yesterday and tell you to do the same in hope that price can be pushed higher, those who believe a major crash is coming would tell you to save your bullets in hope that price can drop further for them to collect at a bargain

Nothing to be happy. 90 days je. Then expect china/asia Pacific to fall again

Do you all think that we are  currrently at the beginning of recession? IMHO, I think so based on what I have read although some analysts beg to differ.

Based on last recession in 2008/2009, by the time the recession was recognised officially, it was over and the market had went upswing. We know that it is not possible to buy at the bottom and if the market stays bearish for longer period, what would be your investment strategy. 

I am beginning to pick up some slowly in small quantity, especially reits and dividend growth stocks which have historically able to outperform the market index over the long run and also some stocks which are too cheap to ignore.

Official numbers like economic recession gdp data is normally lagging behind the market.

That's right, this has been proven during the previous recession.  Based on what I have read and gathered, I would think that we may be already at the early phase of recession.  This is still very much debatable as opinions are split on this.

There are early indicators for early stage of recession but few people understand or know how or where to read. those have too much to loss or vested interest tend to ignore or couldn't see negative news.

Same replies as in the above !!!!!!!

The Economy is one of the best in our history, with unemployment at a 50 year low, and the Stock Market ready to again break a record (set by us many times) - & all you heard yesterday, based on a phony story, was Impeachment. You want to see a Stock Market Crash, Impeach Trump!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/...607079308251136

weekend entertainment

something something inversion yield curve...recession incoming?

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/22/706073410/st...cession-warning

"We don't see that occur that often, but when it does, it's almost always bad news," said Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University.

That's why warning lights started flashing Friday morning when the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped below that of the three-month bill. The last time that happened was just before the Great Recession.

Harvey's been keeping a close eye on these rare, "inverted" yield curves for more than 30 years, and treats them as a kind of early warning signal.

"My indicator has successfully predicted four of the last four recessions," he said, "including a pretty important call before the global financial crisis."

Harvey won't actually forecast a recession unless the yield curve stays inverted for at least three months. But even a flat curve — in which long-term yields are just slightly above short-term yields — could be an indicator the economy is losing steam.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Saw another inverted yield study with some detail on the frequency and its aftermath. Can't find it now.

Bad news? No. I have sold my important shares. Ha. Sorry to be naughty. Ha. That is one of the reasons why I decided to sell early to avoid worrying on bad news like this, sleepless nights asking myself should I sell the next day, next week etc.

**  Norway pension fund (the world largest) is planning to sell its O & G shares.

**  N Korea and USA denuclearisation didnt go as expected.

**  China and USA trade is not progressing as what DT said

**  BREXIT is progressing many many km but just going round in a circle.

**  you fill in the blank
Wait and see .......

P/S  Saw this weeks before ..

[attachmentid=10209267]

Look at the deflation line in the last 2009 recession and compare with now. Both negative. Maybe just coincidence.

Saw some data on historical inverted yield.

[attachmentid=10213768]

Using average and 1 std deviation on these data, estimates of likely recession timing IY1 and IY2 are included in the previous graph.

[attachmentid=10213769]

Interesting . . . . .

According to some regulatory reports, next financial or economic crisis will likely trigger by fed rate rise and impact could be more widely than previous crisis.

De-gearing is a common sense going forward.