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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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ChAOoz
post May 4 2020, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 30 2020, 11:11 AM)

*** By "move below their 200sma", are their prices on the decline? Have not checked one of my favourites (Hartalega) for some time now. Worried that Hartalega was expanding TOO fast with their new plants. Now, with covid, that expansion fits into their business earning very nicely.

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No lar, health care counters such as glove counters are having an awesome time now (Pandemic + Optimism about share (greedy when people are fearful catchphrase bla bla..).

I plan to use them as a buy indicator because when health care stock move below their 200ma in general, this would mean two things

1) Likely the pandemic is at its tail end and investor foresee demand for health care product is going down

2) Market optimism has waned off, health care and consumer staples are the most defensive right now. If even they are lower than their 200ma this mean market is really over pessimistic and a bottom might be near, or market has became rational and nearer to reality

There are many crazy indicators analyst use, like sales of undergarments to predict economic downturn etc, so i guess mine is not so far-fetched ahaha
ChAOoz
post May 28 2020, 11:07 AM

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So TS, whats your take on this "market crash" so far ?
ChAOoz
post May 28 2020, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ May 28 2020, 01:03 PM)
Ha ha. I just whatapps to my friends this morning that maybe I have missed the boat! Saw all green in CNA news.

Going to jump in now as a compromise?

No. If I missed it, tough luck. I still want to be 98% sure that I am doing the right things. Now it is so uncertain, the economy and market are going in opposite directions.

Glove companies have very high PE, 70+, 80+ now. It will take 70-80 years for annual earnings to pay back. And people are still buying at that price! Unless they think it will naik, naik again.

What about you? Bought some and waiting for bigger ones later?

Cheerio.
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Nope i bought in march and have unwind most of my position by May.

Not planning to buy anymore anytime soon unless a crash or a correction back to fundamental happen. The share market is totally out of sync with the real global economy.

If there is no correction back to true value by this June - Sept period, i might look into shorting the market, as it had gone insane.
ChAOoz
post May 30 2020, 01:05 PM

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TS, another side of the argument on market valuation. Maybe you could check it out.

https://brockvalue.com/

The theory seemed solid, so it kinda offer me a new perspective on the overall market valuation now. Maybe it could help you on your decision as well

ChAOoz
post May 30 2020, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ May 30 2020, 01:29 PM)
I really think I need to go back and redo my UPSR English. Thought I said I was happy that I sold before the crash. Did I say there was no crash?

Hope Sifu can help this rookie by recommending your best 2 stocks to buy now, to save rookie from missing the express boat. Thanks.
Noted and thanks for sharing.

Good to have counter-argument to force this frog out of the tunnel. Ha.
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haha another counter-counter argument is the buffet indicator. Which showed highly overvalued for US.

BUT if you use the buffet indicator on Bursa it showed we are undervalued. hahahahha doh.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif

we are just 1/3 of the valuation in terms of ratio before the run up to 98 crisis.

So meaning, if wanna short bursa. Don't short the index, short particular stock. If wanna short US, short the index not particular stock.
ChAOoz
post Jun 4 2020, 11:37 AM

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Ts, 42% rebound during march low. Looked like a v shaped recoveey
ChAOoz
post Jun 6 2020, 01:08 PM

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I guess in the end, the real winner is consistently staying in the market.

Eg DCA all the way, regardless peak or low. You will come out ahead after a long term horizon, eg 10 - 20 years.

Have been waiting the longest time for Apple stock to correct, but it never came. I guess it won't happen this round as well.
ChAOoz
post Jun 6 2020, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 6 2020, 05:54 PM)
I can think of many stocks in Malaysia, Singapore and US where regularr DCA over long periods will make you much poorer.
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But if you really dca even during this whole covid saga. I think most probably can get returnd overall.

But still S&P is the best for dca.
ChAOoz
post Jun 12 2020, 11:46 AM

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Honestly TS, i think for now only one thing will truly kill the market. Raising interest rate.

Apart from that, the market will continue on its irrationality with speculative risk takers profiting from a secure investors based holding the floor. There is simply no where else to park their savings / retirements apart from equities. As all safe yielding assets such as bond and treasuries are too damm low to matter nowadays.
ChAOoz
post Jun 12 2020, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 12 2020, 12:23 PM)
Interest rate rise mean increased in demand, is good for the economy. Deflation is believed to be the worst fear for the market and economy.
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The cycle is always the same.

Speculation -> Bubble -> Inflation -> Rates Increase -> Credit Crunch -> Crash -> Restart

Problem is from 2011 - 2020, we got this instead:

Speculation -> Bubble -> Inflation -> Rates Increase -> DT Election -> Rates Drop -> Corona -> Rates Drop -> Liquidity Support -> More Speculation -> More Bubble

With global economy being so bad not due to a financial crash, the system does not have the opportunity to reset itself, so we will be drowning in liquidity in a low interest rate environment until the economy overheat and central bank need to step in to cool it and we will get a huge reckoning.
ChAOoz
post Jun 20 2020, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jun 20 2020, 04:13 PM)
But he didnt sell his holdings wor...

That being said, GuruFocus' top holdings data shows Grantham's five largest positions as of the quarter ended March 31 were Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH), Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA).

hehe

cheerio
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Nice holdings.

You can see a bubble but its hard to timed its bursting. Better just go long on very good company with strong balance sheets and ride out the thing, rather than missed out on gains.
ChAOoz
post Jun 22 2020, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jun 21 2020, 05:11 PM)
I did not expect this crash to be so different compared to the previous crashes. I was planning to use a similar approach I used in the early 2000's. But things are so different now and cannot proceed.

Think ahead about what things will be in demand when things recover and then invest in these industries. Obviously, companies will need more electricity. So, I invested in Malakoff mainly due to its good dividends. Some 5 years later, bingo, it went from RM2-3 to RM10+! It was a good cash cow and I think the guys inside preferred to keep the profit to themselves and thus they privatised it then.

I asked myself the same question now on what things will be in higher demand when things get better, but this time, much more difficult to answer with certainty. Eg office spaces may be reduced, more drive on web-related businesses, etc.

If you have some ideas to share here, please do.

P/S Malakoff has relisted some years back. Be extra careful, it is a different cow now. Ha.
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There are many structural issues created by loose monetary policy.

Basically we just kicking the can down the road. But it is amazing how long we can sustain this. This recent black swan event will have its implications. May not be this week or this month, but i think 6 months down the road we can see more cracks open up on corporate side.

But still don't fight the fed. Make your analysis and just put some capital to go long for good company when price is attractive. You cant outlast the fed, by then your capital would have been depreciated once there is a major crash that the gains from buying cheap cancels out the losses in putting capital to sleep for such a long time frame.
ChAOoz
post Jul 2 2020, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jul 2 2020, 09:53 AM)
He still owns 5% of apple though ! so ok laa, he did mention he regret not buying Amazon earlier. But he had a small stake in AMZN now, not sure whether he sold it off or not

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-...0503-story.html

Most tech counters ATH again . woohoo, lucky didnt clear AMZN before the coming crash
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Growth stock has been outpacing value stock since the financial crisis. So naturally buffett and many of value fund are at best at par with S&P performance

So against conventional logic, I plan to pile more into value stock. Everyone has their decade i feel tongue.gif

This post has been edited by ChAOoz: Jul 2 2020, 01:05 PM
ChAOoz
post Jul 2 2020, 08:57 PM

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Bear camp, just got wiped out by the latest NFP numbers.

Even bad NFP the market is also partially immune. Now with good news, the rally going full force i guess.

@TS if there is no crash, your cash pile is going to get devalue very fast with all major economies in the world having a very loose monetary policy with no negative implications.
ChAOoz
post Jul 2 2020, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 2 2020, 08:29 PM)
More like the power of #ddtg in play.
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Just a matter of time i think US people gonna refinance en masse their house to bet on the stock market.

As they say, stocks only go up. Don't fight the FED. Crazzzy sweat.gif
ChAOoz
post Jan 1 2021, 11:48 AM

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Hindsight 20/20, but seemed like staying vested was the right choice for 2020.

Happy new year everyone.
ChAOoz
post Jul 18 2022, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2022, 08:27 PM)
laugh.gif

The main point was selling based on assumption that the market will crash was a pretty bad idea. Proven time and time again.

Initial post was Aug 2018......
whistling.gif
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Well timing market not my forte so i leave it to ts.

Usually i only do some rebalancing and rotates fund around either defensive or growth based on their valuations, but very seldom i take money off the table.
ChAOoz
post Jul 18 2022, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 09:17 AM)
... what blew my mind then was the refusal to accept that such strategy is nothing but market timing. wink.gif

oh well....
it's a good time to observe.... hehe...

for example... I am an investor so when drop I will buy more.  laugh.gif
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Well market not the best right now, so the less one do the less mistake will happen.

Share price wise many company will be hit by volatility due to changing fundamentals, some margin impacted some sales slowing and some might lose access to cheap funding.

Not sure how this will all play out, it might resolve itself or government intervene and we have another relief rally or the real bear cycle approach. Either way im defensive for now

 

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