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billy_overheat
post Jul 1 2020, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2020, 09:35 AM)
There's nothing that really fits into my trading setups.  That's all. Several iffys but nothing really seduces me.

LOL! You cannot follow what I do exactly la.... siao ah?? laugh.gif

Before COVID hit hard? Look for companies that's most likely gonna make more money in the future. They need to sell the sexy story....

Chasing trends? Not easy game to play ho. Even I no good at it.
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of course I wont. LOL

nobody's the same because of style and personality. laugh.gif

and this is what I look for ----> "Look for companies that's most likely gonna make more money in the future. They need to sell the sexy story...."

after covid hits, snatched a few techs but patience is needed especially after the supply and demand chain were disrupted.

but it happened just right after MCO started. did my last buy in the early april and nothing afterwards. and that's the time I got more time to read whatever I found and did some catching up.

paper trading during that period was great but i'm not sure it suits with my personality. but you've given a super important point, buy only when there's a certainty and confidence on a stock with BIGGER lots since the risk is the same. april and especially in may gave me so much time to catch up with things and when i looked back now, earnings were ok-ish but I wish I should have been more confident and not to diversify too much.

the change is there. doh.gif one good thing is I have immense patience. gonna utilize that and now revamping my overall strategy slowly. hmm.gif hmm.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 1 2020, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2020, 10:29 AM)
Did you read my initial glove posting and the back test data I did?

See that back test data was crucial. It showed that ...

1. During the SARS pandemic ... the glove stocks really flew.... we are talking multi baggers here. And obviously the best strategy is whack it as much as possible and then sit and do nothing.......

the in and out strategy makes no sense. why go for a few bucks profit when there's big money to be made?

2. The profits soared.

Okay but this time it was slightly tricky. Cos during the SARS period, players like Supermax and TOP were still babies... now they are big. So I did have some doubts on how big of a profit growth is possible....

This was what was needed. Back test the strategy you want. If it made sense and there's a possibility of big money... swing hard at it....  cool2.gif

That's all....
See how important back testing is?

At times like this, one of the common things you here is go for dividend stocks..... but as proven numerous times before via back testing... this strategy is iffy. It's not a sure win!

Without back testing, you won't know what's good or what's iffy....
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backtesting is extremely important. googled every kind of indicators and backtested them within a few years' timeframe. ended up giving mixed signals.
scrapped everything and focus on the good old price action/volume and trend.

so currently i just look through the companies' fa, compared with the companies in same sector, korek their figures + news, and wait till I get good entry.

diversified too much I guess. although like I said, it did balance out the risk but it also shaves off the profit much. it's only within the satisfactory region for my taste.

about SARS and COVID, read something about chances amidst crisis and how one should get hold of it. totally forgot about this till I cleaned everything, saw that book and realized that
I totally missed the ride of gloves.

but, you've let go of your TG right? assuming the pandemic will still go on and ASP will still keep rising, why did you let it go? the few small ones like comfort etc are posting good results
and expecting ASP to raise still for the next few months to fy21. hmm.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 2 2020, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2020, 08:20 AM)
I did not say I played TG. tongue.gif

I posted my exit. One really needs to know when to sell. When to admit you farked up and sell your mistake and know when to collect your winnings.... Know your setups.
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understood. looking at the chart now, it's breaking previous high, so I assume that if one has it, looking at the near-term prospect especially when the market almost guarantees a record-breaking profit in the coming quarter, wouldn't one to hold for another few weeks or months for better profit? but of course, one can't have everything. hmm.gif

user posted image
billy_overheat
post Jul 3 2020, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 3 2020, 03:53 PM)
laugh.gif

Long time you no come kacau......

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


innocent.gif  ? LOL!

Yeah... I think it's best to avoid all them indicators. tongue.gif

my chart usually kosong one mah...

at most .... if need to show .... I add in some blue lines lo ....... lines macam ini ......

user posted image
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Why why whyyyy although I'm also on kosong chart mostly with only one ma200 and volume. laugh.gif

billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 5 2020, 10:51 AM)
Two charts with the 200MA included...

[attachmentid=10528794]
[attachmentid=10528795]

1. Maybank... can the 200MA tell me something that I don't already know?  hmm.gif

2. Superman... do I need the 200MA to tell me the stock is trending very highly?  hmm.gif

Oh.. the 200MA crosses....

See the Superman picture. Price crossed down the 200MA in March 2020...
Oh oh... if one used that as a sell signal...  bangwall.gif
My own preference...
better not see the 200MA then see ....  innocent.gif
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nothing actually. somebody once told me that trade only stocks above ma200, this also means I wouldn't be able to buy anything in march/april tongue.gif

due to its simplicity, what's shown is already shown in the chart, it's just a habit of mine to put it there. but if I forgot to log into my chart, kosong chart will show and I just take a look on the candles. much cleaner and easier. candles do tell lots of stories eh but again, i'm still learning. any tipsy to how to learn more? brows.gif

not stock tipsy eh, dont bash me icon_idea.gif

then, better not see 200ma, see apa? brows.gif

recently came across with klinger oscillator. still backtesting. doh.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(prozfromhell @ Jul 5 2020, 01:04 PM)
so will superman crash down this coming week?
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nobody knows. laugh.gif

if someone knows, someone will not tell us too.

look at the chart, it broke previous high, is that a fakeout? is that a real breakout? I want to know too. biggrin.gif

user posted image

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 5 2020, 02:27 PM
billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 5 2020, 02:20 PM)
"know"... biggrin.gif

only time travelers and demigods "know.

but really, all the indicators i see with my simple eyes do point to higher.

cimb gave it 9.80, ammb 10.40.... others expect 12, 14...

so, we will just see what we will see.

i personally find supermx a superb trading counter lately, hope it continues to kangaroo higher. tongue.gif
*
IBs are really giving them high prices ehhhh. I also feel like jumping in but the gain doesnt seem much compared to the risk one might anticipate sweat.gif sweat.gif

a lot of demigods in the market recently ehhh, and a lot more followers ehhh laugh.gif laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(prozfromhell @ Jul 5 2020, 02:22 PM)
opps  tongue.gif  i rephase, do the charts indicates that superman is crashing down soon?

hahahahaha

anyway, lets hope the glove bubble can maintain for few more months then only burst
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ops, forgot to quote you into the same reply. tongue.gif if gloves dive, others dive together. laugh.gif

gloves are like techs holding up everything in US laugh.gif

my 2cents la. let's hope not
billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 5 2020, 02:45 PM)
oh no... most local IBs gave "low".

public bank on 26 june, just a week ago:

"hold 11.10"... harta went gangbusters to reach 16.00. biggrin.gif

maybank 30 june:

spot on for topglove but all the rest were beaten soundly.

only this aussie co. has been gungho, gave topglove rm30.4.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/55915.jsp

the fans are cheering becos they expect the 2Q profits to be monstrous.
just take an average p/e, u get high TP's.
the sours are saying ponzi, collapsing, vaccines coming, war coming...
that's the fun of it... take yr pick! laugh.gif
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and the rumored spot price is higghhh.

the one from MQ was new right, maybe IBs gonna revise them? people are really having confidence on the gloves brows.gif

really feel like doing that but chasing high isn't my forte. gonna sit out with popcorn and watch. laugh.gif

or you have some secret formulas to share eh wub.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 5 2020, 04:16 PM)
Ok.... maybe what I wrote is too susah to understand....
This is what he wrote....

[attachmentid=10529566]

See? After all his calculations, his ESTIMATE EPS is 90sen.

Now this is what Superman is doing at it is....

[attachmentid=10529567]

Based on current twelve months (or trailing 12 months) Superman eps is only 10.37 Sen.

Ok an eps of 10.37 is way, way to low.... maybe an estimate eps of between 20 to 30 sen is more acceptable....
BUT that bugger estimate eps is 90 sen wo...

90 sen.....

can understand how rocket the estimate is....  laugh.gif
But anyway..... market is hot.... lol..... anything bull also is usually accepted...
all people is interested is...........how much is the Target Price....
no one cares how the target price is derived......

icon_rolleyes.gif
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I often read all these posts like novels. laugh.gif too many sheep in the market following and praising their own 'siputs' like you said and what I learnt these years is to following my own informed instinct. others' earnings are theirs and not mine to begin with and I'll just follow my own footsteps although like I said, I'm still learning biggrin.gif

kyy, like usual, writes many posts to lure his supporters in because why not, gloves are hot. recently the post of charlie munger saying that teaching youngsters to trade is like feeding them heroin came up again. many traders are in for the sensation they get in trading. while one should always educate themselves before going in, many dont.

i didn't beat the market by a huge margin, but better than EPF for the previous years, not good enough, relearn everything again and again. buy & hold, errr, i dont know. need years to prove sweat.gif sweat.gif or maybe trade in the right time will yield me better results? rclxub.gif

ma200 wise, many books are too claiming its holy grail and actually, it doesnt really do anything when I was buying nor selling. laugh.gif

test test test, no more mco, not much time can be used on charts and balance sheets d. sit tight and see how things gonna do sweat.gif sweat.gif


billy_overheat
post Jul 5 2020, 08:03 PM

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Takeaway from margma interview in bfm

- qoq +220% and will go upwards from here
- asp increases 40/50/60% and expected more
- labour shortage is a problem + more initiatives have been done to attract local labours
- in the 80s/12 workers needed for 1mil production
- now 1.7 workers are needed
- aim for 1.2 with automated machine in near future
- all glove makers are over-capacity and capex is otw
- orders are over 8 months solely for medical. Other sectors like food handlers/dentist/tatoo artists, etc are currently rejected for orders

Pandemic will only keep happening from the perspective of epidemiologists, so with the expansion of more factories and more awareness about such possibility, maybe it's not so crazy about the future of such valuation?
billy_overheat
post Jul 6 2020, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 5 2020, 09:37 PM)
Firstly... try see it as it is.... without any bias...lol..cos I am guessing you now have vested interest. tongue.gif

1. Q-Q comparisons are meaningless of course m

2. Yes, of course one can expect some increase in ASP but there's only so much one can increase price. That's business. Anything more than 30% is beyond my opinion of reasonable.

3. Add in the 30% increase in asp, one is Not gonna get anywhere close to the insane projections made by that kyy. It's rocket. No business net profit can grow on a 15% compounded monthly. It is logically not possible.

Profit will be good for the glove sector no doubt but I reckon you should keep your feet on the ground and not rely such fantasy profit projection..

Do you ever back tested bullish earnings projections? Yeah, I know. Nobody does. No one cares. As long as these earnings estimate projections help to justify the sexy price targets, everybody is happy. All they want to hear is the high price target and they compare it versus the current price. The higher the better. It is what it is.

But if you ever do back test the data.. you will find that most of the earnings estimates are never hit.... Lol... but yet, nobody cares. Lol.

Ps.. dont worry what I say la... sentiments are way too bullish...
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Haha, I was curious and dont really plan to do anything. We are discussing and I like discussion. All opinions are very much valued.

user posted image
CIMB posted this on 9/6. net profit of 3.7b tongue.gif

and nope, I didnt backtest any earning projections and at most, I merely look at the numbers and that's it. The report changed a lot since their last on 13/5.

from TP 10.4 to 25 and to be honest, since I've missed the train, my interest is solely on research purpose. laugh.gif

for my own reference purposes

QR 11/6
user posted image

report 13/5
user posted image

report 9/6
user posted image

the profit is gonna be good like you said, and it makes me wonder, how high can the gloves still go? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 6 2020, 09:18 AM
billy_overheat
post Jul 7 2020, 08:57 AM

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Looks like the many had forgotten the lost in June. laugh.gif groups were quiet, posts were lesser, sifus pun diam diam that time

now all come back out from their caves posting gains, even my friends who never invested before were feeling great whistling.gif

let's see
billy_overheat
post Jul 8 2020, 04:14 PM

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I remember I asked questions about MAS before in this thread on why were people buying into company with bad news and debt a few years ago.

Now, looking at AA. laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 9 2020, 05:37 PM

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2020 belongs to gloves. When is time for techs?

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billy_overheat
post Jul 9 2020, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Jul 9 2020, 05:53 PM)
greatec mana tongue.gif
*
Ini pun ok. Jhm too tongue.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 13 2020, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 13 2020, 03:22 PM)
those retailers chasing after glove put warrant is going to burn badly
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many indeed. does anyone want to explain what are all these about? anything related with gloves gonna fly in their minds? sweat.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 13 2020, 03:58 PM
billy_overheat
post Jul 13 2020, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 13 2020, 03:59 PM)
Put warrant = U are betting the stock direction is going to go down
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yup. but many just seem to chase both the put today. it was once 400% lol and the fact that both TG and supermx are on uptrend hence the confusion.

can I take it as those who hold both TG and supermax buying in to hedge them?

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Jul 13 2020, 04:11 PM
billy_overheat
post Jul 14 2020, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 11:20 AM)
Market turning cowboi huh.....  laugh.gif
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the trend is strong for almost all the glove counters, did you re-enter? hmm.gif
billy_overheat
post Jul 14 2020, 12:36 PM

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Seeing two of you char Lai char qu laugh.gif

Looking at the current ATR of the glove counters, I'm kiasi too. Sit diam diam eat super ring and popcorn enough. laugh.gif

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