Keeping this chart....

this is the minute chart of TopGlove this morning....


the day they tried a GME play on TopGlove....
gapped up strongly on high volume....

then ...... declined.......
those that chase above 7......
buy high and never sell?

Two simple questions such as ....

1. Did we overpay for the stock?
2. Was our valuation of the stock too optimistic?

usually not asked ......
got some other stocks doing fairly well....

.... and then .... were you around when stock forums had stock promoters?

http://www.investsmartsc.my/pump-and-dump/

Google the name mentioned....

In all honesty, not much different than old fart at i3...

And yeah....every now and then... a smaller version would show up even in lowyat.

Forums/social media... cavaet emptor

Well.. we got the billion dollar profit.

Huh. You wanted the bee and u got the B.

Now you want it to fall?!

LOL... Duunowhatmorehewant!
stillplayingwifmespider

Okay... I won't say more.

Well, have a good weekend. Cheers!

Thanks for informing me statikinetic

I shall take these few days to go through their annual reports, barring any unforeseen circumstances, I might pull the trigger if price not going any lower 

Mind sharing with us how much in percentage of Scientex you hold in your portfolio?

On the side note, I came across dividendmagic’s Scientex total investment cost vs current share value..it makes me feel I’m little behind the journey 

Today it dipped down to 3.95, that would be 11.85 pre bonus, my 6th sense tells me it’s fairly valued seems like there’s some homework to do this weekend..

Speaking of QL, it occupies approx. 12% of my stock portfolio, I’m not adding anymore position as it defies some of the quantitative metrics in my book, but I do not want to miss out such a solid company too..so there’s that

This is CIMB coverage on Superman



1. Remember post #3603...

In Nov the TP was 13.20
In post #3603, the lowered it to 10.80
Latest, they up the TP higher to 11.80



2. Their earnings forecast they changed...

21F 3.231 Billion changed to 4.453 Billion
22F 2.286 Billion changed to 2.703 Billion
23F 1.598 Billion changed to 1.607 Billion (LOL! ... really? )

They increased the estimates all over

3. The declining earnings trend is the same, Superman is expected to earn much less money next FY.

4. They are basing the earnings on CY22 numbers. Be very careful... it's calendar year and not fiscal year.

CY22 numbers for Superman will effectively consists of the following quarters...

fy22 Q2, fy 22Q3, fy 22Q4 and fy 23Q1 numbers....

  .... yup, so situpid. If they are gonna use CY, then give the readers the earnings tables based on CY and not FY.
5. The target price of 11.80 is based on 15x CY22F P/E..... which means their CY22 estimate eps is 11.80 / 15 = 78.6sen

With a share base of 2.721 billion shares, the estimate profits should be around 2.138 Billion.

6. Point 4. CY22 consisting of fy22 Q2, fy 22Q3, fy 22Q4 and fy 23Q1 numbers....

note .... fy 21 Quarterly profits aren't there. It's no longer used to calculate the TP.
Yup... what is important for the market is what the stock can earn in the future.

For the glove cases, roughly one can estimate based on annual production volume & ASP...the main main / concern here is the declining ASP. (eventually in the future)...which lead to decline profit..Hence i'm not sure current share price is traded how many years ahead 

The one big misconception is 'ASP normalizing' .... cos I feel they think the ASP will fall straight back to pre Covid...

I believe they do not realise that .. a  simple decline of a mere 20% in ASP ....  would bring havoc to earnings.

The TA report link... did you download it?

there's a lot of interesting points.

The table again...



1. It includes the production numbers ....

2. See the ASP estimates for fy21 and fy22. They are projecting ASP of rm284 in fy21 to fall/normalise to rm174.80.

That should be around 30% plus... I think.

3. The pre covid level is below rm90.

4. With the production numbers and the revenue of the past, clearly the ASP is the boom boom boom factor.

5. See the naughty CY numbers.... esp for 2019 and 2020. See how the CY numbers differ. (the CY numbers is higher _

Now for example, the fy22 estimate net profit is 3.888 (see page 1 of the report), the CY22 estimate is 4.262 Billion.
So by using CY numbers, we see that the profit numbers are much higher versus the FY numbers.
Lastly .... the ASP numbers. My arguments on the past is based on simple business practice. Cos I do not believe a business can jack up their Selling Prices for a long period of time.  For TG, using TA numbers, we saw pre covid ASP of rm89 increasing all the way to rm265.00. For me, such alleviated prices can never last.....

statikinetic

Just saw this ....   

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3126156



Boss gets big chunk!!!
Brother & wife also get!!!
64 million new ESOS!

The amount of ESOS options offered to the bosses directly... is shocking. It's not as if the bosses are underpaid....

Rather disgusting imo ....
... sadly ... not many will bother or care ......

Today it dipped down to 3.95, that would be 11.85 pre bonus, my 6th sense tells me it’s fairly valued seems like there’s some homework to do this weekend..

Speaking of QL, it occupies approx. 12% of my stock portfolio, I’m not adding anymore position as it defies some of the quantitative metrics in my book, but I do not want to miss out such a solid company too..so there’s that

Missed the boat