I do agree that the benchmark to value a business is in the revenue generation.
If you are using the measurement of a business in turning earnings to net cash (Disregarding profit margins, revenue growth, etc), wouldn't it be better to use Cash from Op instead? Free Cash Flow (As a bank balance) is influenced by investing and financing activities, and high growth companies use a fair amount of cash to expand so how much they leave in the bank will be skewed.

The number of years used in the formula influences the final value so was wondering of the significance of the 5 years. So if I use a smaller number like 4, I end up with a smaller value (2.91). If I expand it to 6, it increases the value.



Anyhow, let's jump into the projected growth of the company at 10%.
I think the industry is expected to grow at 6-7%, not sure if I remembered it wrongly as I read it somewhere and is purely from memory. If that is true, then would it be better to use industry growth rate as a projection?


Sorry for the deluge of questions!

On another note, Magni looks to continue being flat-ish at least until the next QR. Doesn't have a calatyst in the short term.

Waiting for SPMX QR. Guessing it may be record profits, and the market responds by being red again.


For long term positions, I'm more of a guesstimate.
Usually starts off with the basic fundamentals, revenue and balance sheet. Then management and what the company direction is, this one is a little tricky as I'll need to go back and read like the past 10 years AR and see if they have grown the business the way they set out to. This one is really subjective. Then comes the news search to see if any articles come up, and how that ties into the entire 10 year journey. After that, it is checking up on peers if they are competing for the same customers or is largely separated and if they are a better prospect. Industry analysis follow that to see how it generates money, where it is headed and prospects (airlines die here for me). If at this point I'm still game for it, then comes price entry analysis.

This is where I take the 52 week history, plot in the QR release dates and see how it responds to news. Some can be really sensitive to news, others can announce a good quarter and the price doesn't change. Big price swings in between QR, I'll try search for news on that date to map out the story. At the end, I'll probably derive a price range that's acceptable to me with a CL level.


Short term punts are generally less work. I'd call these calculated gambles.


This post has been edited by statikinetic: Jan 27 2021, 01:25 AM

Another day of just sitting in the market.
Numbers are pointing that I'm way better at picking funds than picking stocks. Might have to portfolio adjust next quarter.

Looking at the whole GME drama for entertainment.

Hey, hope you are doing OK and the Covid cases aren't weighing you down too much. Your workload must be on a consistent high!

Internally, I read up that Japan is still trying to unwind the financial Web of sponsorships and investments that have already gone in. Sheer financial power might just see the Olympics through. Not sure about UK, they seem even worse off than Japan in terms of the pandemic.

Shaking legs at the lack of action in the market today.

"The money is in the sitting".
Quote I heard from somewhere before. Peeping at the announcements at the end of the day for SPMX QR.

Am really happy you posted it here.
Very true about market irrationality. And the degree of it has been staggerring these days.

General question : How much of you total portfolio do you invest directly in stocks? Taking into account fund, commodities and cash.

Come come, be first. What's your total exposure to KLSE? 50%?

That's right. Which makes me wonder in a stock forum, what the demographic around these parts. Thought that'll be a good discussion ball to roll around for a bit. I'm about 30% in, which might go lower in time.

I'm not directly in the US stock market, only indirectly via certain funds.
Like you, I have no interest in real estate as I feel there are a lot of unaccounted hidden costs and it is very illiquid. I love liquidity.
Gold is a little too safe, and I'm not considering crypto at the moment.

I like aggressive, equity driven funds though. At least I get to pick the fund strategy, be it sector wise like tech or by geography, like China.
Then at the end of a timeframe of one year, I do my evaluation. If my stock portfolio outperforms any of the funds I selected, I move 20% out from the underperforming fund into my stock portfolio. If my stock portfolio underperforms most of my funds, I surrender 20% from the stock portfolio into the fund. Then I go again. It is a numbers driven evaluation process which removes any personal biases I have when evaluating. I, like most people I guess, think I'm better than I'm really am at the stock game.

Right now I am definitely on track to losing a portion of my stock portfolio. The funds have risen on average 7% in the past 2 months, and my stocks have dragged in Jan.


Instead of play spider, you can organize a GME influenced short squeeze on your fav TG shorties.

Short squeeze is the other way around. It's when you drive up the price, causing massive losses for those in a short position.
Like the GME case. So you get to go crazy LOOOOOOONNGG.

No worries, I'm nowhere near that drama.
When even the uncles at the kopitiam and college students are getting involved, it's goodnight for me.

Makes for a good daily read though. Euphoria is definitely the word.

And sitters gonna sit.

My take on the dip is mainly reflects the start of vaccinations, aided by the start of the Biden era which is a lot more virus-control friendly than the Trump crowd.

For efficiency and if the vaccine is successful, I prefer to look instead to Singapore. They are already well underway for the first Pfizer shot and we will see how vaccination helps the overall control. This is because Singapore's tight government control gives them an edge other governments don't have. If Singapore gets the virus under control (Not talking about mutations yet) this year with the vaccinations, the rest of the word has a chance.

If Singapore shows pain points even after the vaccinations with new mutations and re-infections, I'd say US is bound to blow up again.
Early day predictions which may not age well.

Plan as a skeptic and execute like an optimist!

I wanna believe too. Miss my office already.
Somebody in our government better keep an eye on the vaccination process going on in Singapore to learn how to execute it here. Good learning ground just across the causeway. Have some friends there too so I get to hear firsthand how they feel after.

Some point of reference is better than leaving our Ministers to come up with one I think.
Not much confidence there.

Tomorrow leave your spiders alone and do morning coffee instead.
See tomorrow morning if there is a show for us.

Inspired by GameStop, Malaysian retail investors look to prop up medical glove shares
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/insp...al-glove-shares

Feels like people who are stuck near the top trying for an escape plan.
I expect it to fizzle, but TG at 10% now.

I think because the WSB inspiration was to punish short selers and TG had one of the most shorts.
If they went with low NOSH ACE market stocks, that would be an obvious goreng move.

Show is already over. I"m sure some folks made a nice sum for omakase dinner tonight.

This one barely lasted my one cup of coffee before it went bottom up.

Basic human psychology. The self must be preserved.
It is never really our fault, always other factors at play. Really expensive way of thinking in the markets.