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AVFAN
post Aug 15 2020, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 15 2020, 12:03 PM)
well ... I am not too sure. Is there really so many contra players out there playing stocks like TG and SM?

And could one broker caused so much havoc?

Not sure myself....

for whatever the reason ... I do hope market recover...

a livelier up market certainly wouldn't do the people no harm!  thumbup.gif
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this kind of thing, 1 or more to come, rumor or fact.. is contagious.

next week will confirm what is really going on! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 16 2020, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 16 2020, 12:03 PM)
When is TG QR report release?

I really believe that the market really needs the big big numbers from TG.
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not announced yet.

should be known shortly after EMG on 18 aug.
AVFAN
post Aug 16 2020, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 16 2020, 12:50 PM)
Its already announced much earlier, can refer below. But of cos, its subjected to change.

https://www.topglove.com/corporate-calendar/
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ah... 17 sep.

my bad... i was thinking of the ex-date for the split. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 17 2020, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 17 2020, 12:32 PM)
ya, read that.

there was another one this morning crticizing maybank for its "necessary" article on windfall tax.

not sure if it is from him.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...r-some-pressure
perhaps too many are trying to kill this goose that lays golden eggs!




AVFAN
post Aug 18 2020, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 17 2020, 02:37 PM)
I would very much agree with Dali comments but then ... decisions made by gov ... can be unpredictable.... wink.gif
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a summary from TG's egm this morning:

QUOTE
Aug to Sept - ASP increased 20-40% depending on the type of gloves
TG allocating 30% for spot orders
Target to resolve CBP detention issue by the end of August
Expect to pay a final dividend which will be higher
Average TP from all the analyst is 31.13
Average PAT expectation from all analyst is 1.4b
Windfall tax was debated on Parliament yesterday.
For now there is no intention to implement the windfall tax.


1.4b? i dun remember that being the average expectation!

ok, we wait for sept 17.
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2020, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 18 2020, 07:31 PM)
laugh.gif ... and the market is crazy hot....  thumbup.gif

just like 4th Aug .....  laugh.gif
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it has gone crazy again...!! laugh.gif

well, maybe, there is nothing else in boland that can make good profits anymore...?

but.. more borrowings, bigger debts coming....

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: The government has launched the RM500 million Sukuk Prihatin which aims to raise funds from the public and corporates who wish to help contribute towards the Covid-19 Fund.
https://www.nst.com.my/news/government-publ...digital-islamic

AVFAN
post Aug 18 2020, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 18 2020, 08:32 PM)
Only 500 mil la... lol... too small. tongue.gif
Ps...

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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appetizer la...

wait till u read 5bil, 30bil... biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 19 2020, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2020, 07:24 PM)
taikor, need a favor, again! biggrin.gif

the gloves top4 ... or just topgun, superman will do.

after today, i see some resemblance between the periods aug 11-13 and july 14-16.

if u can take a quick look... if what i see is half correct, we should get a short leg up tmr aug 14... like july 17.

like to hear from u, thanks.
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 08:41 PM)
not really seeing what you are seeing ....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
But that msci news ...... it should be positive....

watch the volume.... if the volume doesn't kick up and disappoints again ... err...........................
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taikor, wanna revisit this....

aug 14 did not turn out what i thought it might... it went down another 2 days.

yesterday, aug 18, it rebounded... guess if wait long enuf, it will happen! biggrin.gif

or maybe it needed a trigger... maybe the EGM was it?

is it looking like some bullish engulfing now? a new run up has started? volume has improved.

today's outcome will be interesting... any views on it?
AVFAN
post Aug 21 2020, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 19 2020, 09:07 AM)
Sorry went for a morning walk... laugh.gif

not much view on it ....

I had SuperMan on my fake trade cos technically it was a sell and I wanted to see if I can catch a trade based on 'the correction had been too much too fast etc'...
well... i didn't catch a trade .. even for my 555 book.
laugh.gif

I really got nothing much to say...

more negative on the bonus issue...
this is what I am guessing...
once it goes ex and the price is adjusted...
those few days... it might see a pop but once the bonus shares are credited into account... i think could see the stock actually slide...
size of a shares matters a lot for me....
big shares stock is much harder to move .....
compared to smaller size....
stocks like TG will be a 8 billion size listing....
it's not gonna be easy to move ....
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i had to wait until closing today to check with you again! biggrin.gif

if u can take a fresh look at TG... for learning purposes.

.. i see 3 white soldiers after 9 days of correction/flat... should be a confirmed reversal, bullish next week!?
.. uptrend is intact.
.. rsi 61 is ok, not overbought.
.. vol is not big but is decent.
.. bonus/split ex-date sep 3.
.. QR sep 17.

i dun see same with any other.

superman is a bit like TG but not as good... i have doubts.
talking of which i make rm50 from spmx today! laugh.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 21 2020, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 21 2020, 07:06 PM)
Looks like 3 white soldiers but it isn't...
they're not?

2nd, 3rd bodies too short?

can call them 3 tiny white soldiers?!! laugh.gif


so much for a beginner...! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 21 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 21 2020, 07:23 PM)
Too big la laugh.gif
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u mean the first one?

ya, too long.... maybe?!
AVFAN
post Aug 21 2020, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 21 2020, 07:52 PM)
LOL....

Have a good weekend dude
*
ok.... let's see what happens next week. biggrin.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 22 2020, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Aug 21 2020, 11:16 PM)
Hmm based on the three white soldiers definition, isn't it meant to be used as a reversal of a downtrend? TG doesn't seems like in a downtrend? Though i have no experience in trading using 3 tentera putih tho biggrin.gif
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TG declined from a high of 28.xx for 9 days aug 6-17.

followed by 3 days rise on aug 18, 19, 21 back to 28.00.

that's why i said i saw a confirmed reversal from bear to bull with the 3 white soldiers.

ok... maybe not really 3 askar putih or a distorted one, or fake one... but don't u think it is at least a bit bullish?! biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 22 2020, 11:46 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 22 2020, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Aug 22 2020, 07:13 PM)
Ah yes i guess is also depend on your timeframe. The way i see it ever since it touched its high of 28-ish, now its making its first retracement to 22-ish (17 aug) then start to rebound from that 22-ish after that. So see what TG wanna do lo if consolidate, shud be the range 22-ish to 28-ish. Else if wanna uptrend/downtrend, depending on >28-ish closing/<22-ish closing ar. This just my view ar. No right or wrong, i'm also just learning only XÞ
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time frame...

if u are day trader, u look at 1min, 5min, 15min, 1 hr sticks, i guess.

generally, day sticks tell more... so, i usually look at and consider daily sticks only.
AVFAN
post Aug 23 2020, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 23 2020, 10:29 AM)
No wo....

Must be losing my touch.... tongue.gif
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u still haven't spotted a big win coming?! biggrin.gif

last 3 months, there was gloves... tech, pharma, gold... some sustained, some yo-yo.

off and on, there have been spurts... "sanitizers", "ppe", masks".

latest.. i read touting... "plantations", "oil" and even "developers".

really... there isn't much going on that actually makes good profits, is there?!

noises, plenty.

seriously, it does not bode well after >6 months.

how the hell is the economy going to recover if there aren't enough engines tocut it.

debt alone cannot do it.
AVFAN
post Aug 23 2020, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 23 2020, 11:34 AM)
laugh.gif

Ya lo...

Back to TG..... tongue.gif

There's basically nothing 'new' and this I have to say is all due to our lack of quality in the scientists. It's overdone. Giving new TP based on profit revision every couple of weeks early on will have its consequences, in which they set the bar way too high that whatever profit the glove makers will not make/cause any new surprises.. what's the latest profit estimate? It was 800m early on and they just went up and up... now 1.1 billion for q4? I lost count already laugh.gif

It's so high that it's not gonna seduce ppl like me unless it's 20% above their estimates... err... which is gonna reach 2 billion at the rate the estimates keep revising.

Yup... so for me... unless the numbers come in really big and force these already over optimistic scientist to drop their glasses.. TG next QR will be a non price boosting factor.... which is utterly stupid if TG reports a billion in profit for the quarter and these jokers say oh, no big deal, we were expecting much more...

and if the profits don't dazzle how these jokers gonna create higher earnings numbers?

.... and as it is... the 2022 numbers are not even indicating booming numbers....

just some few sen for you to ponder.. M
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then u probably will truly dislike KOSSAN! biggrin.gif

kossan, QR due mon or tue, i think.

last 3 qtrs PATAMI - 64.8, 61, 49.2 mil.

kenanga gave it TP 17.1... expecting this qtr PATAMI between RM96m and RM116m.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56106.jsp

this is a bit worrisome:
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 935,620 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 353,200 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 261,800 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 228,800 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 335,000 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 639,900 shares on 14-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 346,100 shares on 14-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 1,500,000 shares on 14-Aug-2020.

kossan currently rm16.40.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 23 2020, 11:40 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 23 2020, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 23 2020, 11:43 AM)
It’s all about the sentiment now. Ppl don’t really look into the details in such a bull run. Still plenty of newcomers will pick up the expensive stocks. No idea when the musical chair will stop.
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sentiment... punters sentiment at bursa is quite clear.

retailers are betting on 1. penny stocks, 2. gloves, 3 healthcare... in that order, imo.

but really, the overall economy... i somehow feel it's all too quiet... some strong undercurrent brewing.

while gomen is totally preoccupied with power and positions, it is all too tranquil, i find.

which gives me the shivers that some big shit is coming... all the big bad bear news will rain at the same time..??

better we stay prudent and not goreng anything that falls from the sky! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 23 2020, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 23 2020, 05:12 PM)
laugh.gif

Are you kidding me? That's a terrible way to compare. Must be desperately trying to promote Maybank.

Clearly most knows that such profit growth is unstainble. Even in the reports.. the 2022 numbers are missing the growth.

But yeah in a bullish market its hard to talk sense with the punters... stocks like Karek, Notion, LKL, Nice...and many more.
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The question then is what profit level is sustainable?

Very simply, if that touted 1.4bil for current qtr is sustainable, 1 year is 5.6bil... for 2.7bil shares.

About rm2 per share... pe of 30 already give a share price of rm 60.

Nobody is so silly to believe that will last.

When stabilized, how about half it... say 700mil per qtr... 2.8b pa.... or about rm1 eps, rm30 for pe30?

That wud be more reasonable... and if 50% to be paid as dividend, 50sen per share p.a.... i can live with that. tongue.gif


But of course, there is a doomsday scenario where a perfect vaccine arrives tmr, nobody need glove or mask or ppe anymore.

And everyone lives happily ever after!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 23 2020, 05:52 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 25 2020, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 25 2020, 09:17 AM)
Possible Top Top for TG forming .......
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yep, all glove counters prices may be capped now becos:

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-glove-industry
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/08/619...ngerang-complex
AVFAN
post Aug 25 2020, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 25 2020, 10:09 AM)
Ahh....

kinda explain the declining volume (waning interest) seen lately on TG....

every tom dick and harry wants to join the bandwagon ...... laugh.gif


I guess over capacity will now be this industry biggest concern in the future....
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yes, that petronas news is the one that spooked gloves this morning.

not vaccine or DT or russia.

consolidation will come for sure... 2-3 years?

from TG MD:

QUOTE
Newcomers venture in Glove business (same situation seen in the past pandemic but not able to survive when demand normalize)
250 gloves manufacturers 30 years ago, and 40 players left now.


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