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AVFAN
post Aug 10 2020, 06:43 PM

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superman is impressive!

QUOTE
SUPERMAX 4Q2020 PROFIT SOARED 2,815.4% to RM408.3 MILLION
Own Brand Manufacturing Model and Distribution Income give rise to strong profit and
EBITDA margins
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA –10th AUGUST 2020 - Supermax Corporation Berhad (“Supermax” or
the “Group”), has today released its fourth quarter results for financial year ended 30 June 2020
(“4Q2020”), achieving its best ever quarterly financial performance since incorporation.
For 4Q2020, revenue surged to RM929.1 million increasing by 147.1% as compared to the
corresponding quarter a year ago (“4Q2019”). Profit after tax (“PAT”) soared by 2,815.4% to RM408.3

million. With this strong performance, the Group achieved industry leading EBITDA, PBT and PAT
margins of 60.4%, 55.9% and 43.9%, respectively in 4Q2020. For the full financial year ended 30 June
2020 (“FYE2020”), revenue closed at RM2.13 billion with PAT of RM535.6 million compared to
RM123.1 million in FYE2019.

The demand for gloves as a personal protective equipment has heightened as the world fights the
COVID-19 pandemic. We are seeing the emergence of new consumers and new consumption not
previously seen before prior to Covid-19. Currently, the Group is in an oversold position. The surge in
demand has resulted in a rapid rise of average selling prices (“ASPs”) since March 2020. Governments
all over the world have increased healthcare spending budgets to contain the effects of the pandemic
and in preparation of a possible second or more waves. At this point in time, the world continues to
discover of new strain of viruses and in light of these developments, the Group expects demand to
remain buoyant in 2021 and beyond.
Since the founding of Supermax, we have adopted the Own Brand Manufacturing (“OBM”) model
whereby we manufacture the products, package and market under our In-house brands. We currently
export 55% of production under our own brands via our own distribution centres and 40% through
independent distributors. The remaining 5% is for OEM production. Due to the current robust demand,
we are taking the opportunity to build new relationships with new customers and distributors in
anticipation that they will continue with repeat orders post pandemic.
Our products are sold to over 165 countries, the largest contributor being the Americas region which
contributed 51% of revenue in FYE2020. Asia/Oceania and Europe each contributed 23% to FYE2020
revenue. In terms of product segmentation, 72% is from nitrile powder free gloves, followed by 18%
from latex powder free and 7% and 3% from powdered latex and surgical gloves, respectively. In terms
of capacity expansion, we have put in place expansion plans of building total of 5 glove manufacturing
plants between now and until year 2022 with additional production capacity of 22.25 billion making
total of 48.42 billion gloves by end of year 2022. The Supermax Group would invest total capital
expenditure of RM1.3 billion for the new plants.
The highest ASPs have not been reflected this current quarter and we are optimistic that our OBM
cum distribution business model will exhibit even healthier performance in the coming quarters.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3076130
AVFAN
post Aug 10 2020, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 10 2020, 08:06 PM)
Yup. Much higher than my 300 estimation....

I had a huge chuckle cos those numbers was kinda of close to that old fart numbers...
the funny thing is... the old fart didn't even have courage on his own convictions as he sold out on Superman at ... err .... 18++?
yaloh... own self shoot out the rocket numbers but before the stock can reach his target of 24, he pandai lari kuat kuat... laugh.gif

this had made my day  thumbup.gif

Anyway ..... Nah... I am not good with these type of number games...
atm ... I really don't think how I can get a speculation edge on it .... wink.gif

SO meanwhile, I shall tell SuperMan I will just continue to sit in the corner and play with my spider ....

notworthy.gif
*
i was expecting 300 too.

the reality was while they slightly more than double the sales units, the ASP incr was impressive.

profit margin almost tripled to 44%!

now, that is very impressive.... any biz wud love to have that.

anyway, i am curious what this will do the rest of the glovemakers tmr in the following days and weeks.
AVFAN
post Aug 10 2020, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 10 2020, 08:30 PM)
And the ASP increases... won't there be repercussions in the future?

Put it this way...
If my supplier keeps on increasing price constantly at an alarming rate... there will be a time in the future... if ever I get the opportunity, I would tell my supplier to buzz off

tongue.gif
*
this... those scientists do say, from their forecasts, that the prices will peak in mid or late 2021... 2022 will NOT enjoy that anymore.

with more capacity, maybe less use, etc... that is a reasonable assumption.

so, the game is until then only.
AVFAN
post Aug 10 2020, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 10 2020, 09:05 PM)
the goreng game is still on at least till end of this year I guess?
*
i have no idea about the bigger goreng game with the penny stocks. biggrin.gif

but i do think the bigger glove stocks will continue to be v active until at least early 2021.

so, can be busy until then. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 10 2020, 09:27 PM)
Very soon we will see prices based on fy 22 estimates la...

Else how to get them forty prices laugh.gif
*
think so... the new TP's for 2 of them will v soon become 40, 50...! laugh.gif

QUOTE(mitodna @ Aug 10 2020, 09:32 PM)
Didn't read much, didn't he sold all superman at 18?

Offtopic, is Superman going to fly to 23?
*
superman last high was 24.44 on aug 7.
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 08:05 AM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 10 2020, 07:49 PM)
126 is not by him. Its by one of the analyser from affin bank. He just mentioned that its possible to achieve that.
*
126 is from him, latest.

the affin man quoted 110 as a bull-case with 46 as base call price.
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 08:38 AM)
user posted image
here's a question for u .... tongue.gif

If you had not cashed out on Friday ...
where would you set your cut profit/loss point?

smile.gif
*
ya, that wud hv been shit in my pants! biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 11:12 AM)
TopGun ... current ...

user posted image

'If' you have it...

1. where and how would you plant your exit?
2. what are the sell indicators to look for?
Here are some things that I see...

1. UPTREND of course is intact lor
2. That candle on the 4th ..
3. number of hitam candles is getting more ....
4. the low current volume ...
cool2.gif

nothing too conclusive imo  ......
*
i play it both ways...

some, i keep, no matter what... until split done with, us ban resolved.

the rest... i start taking profit now at 27.96/98... resistance at 28.00.

later in the afternoon, yet to see...
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 11:34 AM)
Ooo.... you see the weak price action huh .....
*
TG vol today will be less than yesterday's 15mil.

i dun expect it to go much beyond 28, even if it does.

i was expecting bigger vol due to spmx "inspiration"... but, no...

it will take another trigger to bring back the vol.

hopefully soon! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 11:37 AM)

4. If only 1571 million... then annualised (divide by 4) ~ 394 million per quarter only wo....

Isn't the scientist behind the curve?  or is the scientist suggesting no growth?  hmm.gif
*** perhaps another report is coming... with bigger numbers?  rolleyes.gif
** my counting correct ah?  rolleyes.gif
this, i suspect he has built in ASP easing off starting sometime in 2h CY2021.


AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 11:51 AM)
they have a new report out on Harta too...

they increased their estimate cy21 eps... lol...

so tp is now ... 26.22

laugh.gif
me? I cannot play this game...

btw.... I think it is pointless to look at Harta already .... waste time .... laugh.gif  laugh.gif
*
harta 26?

i can't wait to read it. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2020, 12:05 PM)
Ah Kong....  Die hard hard ......

Ah Mei..... Die hard .... will it be die hard hard soon?
Goreng so fast so hard until whatever fundamentals also hanggus ... laugh.gif laugh.gif
*
quite straightforward.... they will just return to their usual flatlines! tongue.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 02:28 PM

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today we get these new SUPERMAX TP's:

QUOTE
11/08/2020 0.00 25.00 +25.00 (0.00%) BUY NOMURA Price Target News
11/08/2020 0.00 27.00 +27.00 (0.00%) BUY CIMB Price Target News
11/08/2020 24.30 33.00 +8.70 (35.80%) BUY Affin Hwang Capital
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/7106.jsp


33...!
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 11 2020, 08:46 PM)
in such a short period, in a matter of 1-2 weeks, can see a similar pattern for some stocks , they take turns, pharma > gold > oil . Some penny stocks also. Most of them crashed yest and today.
*
oooo.... u think oil&gas gonna spike?

have u been following opec+, non-opec, shale, production, storage, tankers, consumption?
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2020, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 11 2020, 08:59 PM)
I dont think the oil prices will hike up so soon. but oil counters already start moving. Dont they think its a little bit too obvious? the goreng intention is so obvious.
*
ah... if u mean the sharks have started to bait fresh fish in O&G, ok... i agree.

they are always looking for innocent ones with some cash and itchy for cepat kaya.
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 02:51 PM)
Let's take a look at Ambarella (AMBA) in the summer of 2015. The system-on-a-chip designer made a big move due to its relationship with GoPro (GPRO). GoPro, the hyped camera-on-a-stick maker, went public at a 24 IPO price and quickly ran up to 98.47. But that lofty valuation was quickly shattered. At one point, GoPro plummeted to an all-time low of 4.42 in April 2018, 95% off that all-time high.
ambarella, gopro... man, u invoked my sweet-bitter nights! laugh.gif

overall, i made money from these 2 at that time... left them sweethearts long time ago.


taikor, need a favor, again! biggrin.gif

the gloves top4 ... or just topgun, superman will do.

after today, i see some resemblance between the periods aug 11-13 and july 14-16.

if u can take a quick look... if what i see is half correct, we should get a short leg up tmr aug 14... like july 17.

like to hear from u, thanks.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 13 2020, 07:28 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 08:41 PM)
not really seeing what you are seeing ....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
But that msci news ...... it should be positive....

watch the volume.... if the volume doesn't kick up and disappoints again ... err...........................
*
i must be stretching what i see! laugh.gif

yes, i agree... it has gone below the trendline... in fact, same for the other 3.

but what concerns me as u pointed out is the VOLUME.

it is only doing 1/2 of what it did then.

harta same, TG is a bit better.

and of course, other compelling news matter - msci, GDP data...

so... will be watching tmr morning.

thanks for the pointers, as always. thumbup.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2020, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 13 2020, 10:13 PM)
There's a possibility that what happened in the Amba example (there was a reason I posted that article.. tongue.gif)  might happen to SuperMan. So if the rebounds further tomorrow on weak volume.. you really need to be cautious on playing long...

Reason I feel is they are getting edgy with the QR reports. See Harta and then now Superman. Hence I feel the market is expecting TopGun to produce good earnings (around 800 million plus) but that is not gonna satisfy the market. They really want strong blowout numbers. More than 1 billion will bring the whole gang gaga over glove stocks once more. Anything less would see reaction like Superman...
And yes there is the Harami cross in Superman but I don't trust the candle enough ( plus my candles trading is far from good) as it's not a conclusive candle, as it needs confirmaton. Are you seeing that?


But yeah.. it should trade higher but watch the volumes... where is the big kaki?
*
harami cross in superman... maybe "harami cross like"! biggrin.gif

what i see with TG looks better.

i agree the market is expecting explosive PAT from TG... will be hard to satisfy all.

still, with some weeks to go, i find TG the best one to hold, if i were to hold any.

i did trade superman today, in/out 30min... ok, good for groceries tmr. tongue.gif

but i am reluctant to long superman.
AVFAN
post Aug 14 2020, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 14 2020, 11:52 AM)
The biggest worry is .... where is the big kaki?
If the glove makers prospects are so good...
we should see sign of them mopping up the shares (leaving their footprints in the volume) .....
but so far ...... price action has been poor ..... does this indicate that the big boys weren't interested?

today... sellers have been more aggressive ....
*
punters got mauled today. biggrin.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 14 2020, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 14 2020, 07:13 PM)
the msci thingy did not help... it gave false hope to early punters ....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

and the intraday bounce, which usually happened, disappeared.....

volume increased and the sellers were aggressive throughout the day ......
better let the market show where it wants the stock to consolidate .... and let's not jump the gun
*
i was actually a little surprised.

then, as it always is, there was a trigger. we already know which broker it is.

QUOTE
Contra trade ban rumour sends rubber glove shares lower
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cont...ve-shares-lower


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