Ooolala..... tipsy.






So why this SERBADK good?

Interesting but I have to say that it's too newly listed for me to pass any judgement on it.
Having said that, I will 6C 6C....

6 = Look
C = See

Last time his story was on Mudajaya. Brought a lot of people to Holland.

See this sample post # post 1381 .....

His other stories... Xingquan....

Supermax .... again???

I know you always like Supermx and probably a shareholder too but I don't agree you using that 'remark' as an excuse.

Why?

If you do your homework, you would have clearly seen that their earnings performance has been really shitty la.



So if you earn less and less money who wants to buy your shares?

LOW PE RATIO also simply means TARAK LAKU.


Oh yeah... what about the contact lens venture recently?

I for one would be utterly pissed off if the company I own simply simply diversify into totally unrelated business.

The thing about these 2, there are too smallish to be taken seriously. I would not look beyond TopG or Kossan or Harta.

Anyway, I am utterly uninterested in this sector.
It's way over crowded and all the major players are grossly guilty of over expansion.

My 2+1 sen.

Ahhh.... remember theme plays like Elections?

Now that Raya is sort of over....
ask yourself....
has there been a Raya rally this year?

Do the same for others....

Yes, too small compared to other big boys in the SAME industry.

Oh... some like to play stock based on certain themes such as ELECTION, Raya, Depavali, Christmas, CNY etc etc etc....
Since Raya is over... if one plays based on such themes, shouldn't one mark down what had happened this Raya?

Missed that statement.

Dude... check your live stock quote data...
The market cap info is there.

eg. TopG market cap 7.27 Billion vs Careplus market cap 207 million only

Why Traders Give Back Profits After Winning Streaks
By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Articles | 28 Comments

How many times have you hit a big winning trade or a series of winners and shortly thereafter given all the profits back and probably even more? I don’t know about you, but this scenario was one I found myself in more than once early on in my trading career, so I know just how frustrating it can be.
Whilst there is probably a number of reasons you are giving back your trading profits again and again, there is one thing they all have in common: Recency Effect.

Recency Effect is a psychological phenomenon that describes how people are more likely to remember and act in accordance with events that happened more recently, compared to those that came before. It sounds like it’s just human nature, and it is, but as traders, we need to understand the profound implications the recency effect has on us, if we let.

When a trader focuses too heavily on his or her most recent trading results, it causes them to lose focus and perspective. In trading, it is EXTREMELY easy to become overly-influenced by our most recent trade(s), and this can cause us to do all kinds of stupid things.

Recency Effect is the root cause of why traders give back their profits again and again. The main reason it causes traders to give back profits, is by giving them a false sense of confidence about their trading abilities…

False-confidence: An enemy in disguise

When we become overly-affected by our most recent trades (recency effect), it typically manifests itself by feeling a false sense of confidence.

For example, a beginning trader might get lucky and start out doing very well, hitting a string of three straight winners, which is entirely possible even if they don’t know what they’re doing. Now, let’s say the market conditions at the time of the winners were “easy” conditions; very strongly trending, easy to quickly profit in. Next, let’s say the market conditions change suddenly but that trader just keeps trading because they are feeling very confident following the ‘easy money’ they’ve just made. A lack of education, understanding and trading skill, combined with this false-confidence cause the trader to keep trading, but now the trader loses all the money they made on their three winners.

This type of situation is very common and nearly every trader experiences it at some point. False-confidence will make you feel like you’re smarter than you are, like you have some trading ‘gift’ that ‘other people just don’t have’. Well, you probably do not have such a gift (it’s rare), and when you are feeling like you do, it’s a warning sign you’re about to lose some money to the market.

The key to overcoming Recency Effect and false-confidence, is by remembering that thinking in probabilities is the key to lasting trading success. In other words, we are trading probabilities, not certainties in the market, and every trade is unique and independent from the previous one; so, your previous trade result has no influence on your next trade’s. This is how you have to think if you want to get in the proper trading mindset. It is when you start assigning too much importance to your more recent trades that you lose sight of your trading plan and long-term trading goals and start losing money regularly.

Cold, hard, cash.

There is nothing more real than cold, hard, cash in your hands. The feel and smell is something that creates a sensory connection and as a result, an emotional and psychological one as well. This is quite a bit different than what happens when you are simply staring at digits on a computer screen.

What is my point you ask?

When we never touch our trading money, specifically the profits we make from trades, it becomes an intangible and thus insignificant thing to us. In short, we care less about it.

What easier way to give back your trading profits than if you don’t care about them? I guarantee you if you held $500 cash in your hands and another trader walked up to you and tried grabbing it from you, you would probably punch them in the face, right? But, when that same $500 is on your computer screen and you can’t see who is taking it from you, you simply shrug and feel a little upset at the loss, and maybe chuck another $500 in your account.

Do you see the problem here?

Here’s the solution: Each month, if you made money trading, even if it was $10 profit, WITHDRAWAL SOME IF IT, and go get that amount out of an ATM or from your bank. Set that cash on your trading desk or put it in a jar where you can easily get to it. Take it out once a week, play with it, smell it, whatever. Realize that it’s REAL money and that you really don’t want to lose it! Now, trade in-line with that feeling. In other words, trade defensively, in order to preserve your trading capital, because THAT is how you survive and eventually thrive in the world of trading.

Conclusion

Unnecessarily giving back trading profits is probably the most frustrating part of trading and If allowed to spiral out of control, can trigger an avalanche of trading mistakes that eventually lead you to blowing out your account.

By sharing these insights it is my hope that you avoid a situation where you have grown your trading account and then proceed to lose all your profits. The mental aspect of this event can do long term damage to a traders confidence. It can be hard to recover both mentally and financially from such an event, so it’s very important traders are prepared.

After working with my students over the past decade the most common trait that I see bring down a trader is ‘over confidence’ after they experience a winning period. I encourage people to remain humble and treat each trade and each day the same as they did all those before. There is no room for egos in the market, nor is there any room for hot headed traders who feel the need to prove the market wrong, usually trading erratically to claw back losses or stubbornly holding losing positions.

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex...winning-streaks

You got to compare against the SAME industry.

Telling my honest opinion on Supermax is considered pouring cold water meh?

I got elephant's memory ma.... and of course I remember them old Supermax discussion.

I dun have



How are you?

Early, early morning got brain twister



For me, if that was me, I bought the stock (which I thought had value) but yet the stock went down, the first and best thing to do is ALWAYS try to look at it with an unbiased mindset. Forget the value thing. Forget the discount. First thing is that the bloody stock went down. Which means is that I have to ask myself if I had bloody well farked up on my assumption of value there. DID I MAKE THE BLOODY MISTAKE IN THE FIRST PLACE? That's what I would ask instead of using quotes like 'BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL. When we do not analyse ourselves first, that would utterly render that quote useless.

Take that Parkson example again. Take Feb 2012. Profits 100 million plus. NTA 2.39. Parkson price then was 4.40++

So Parkson was tumbling down....

Assuming one spotted it but decided that they would take the good old value+patience approach.

They wait ONE year later before pulling the mighty trigger. May 2013. Profits 70 million plus. Still bloody good ma. NTA increased to 2.59. Price was 3.0+. And they note, got dividend and got share buyback. What can go wrong?

Well profits continued to fall. From 70+ million, profits plunged to 30+ million.'

Now assume this fella did not average down YET.

He/She played the patient game... but come AUg 2015.... profits turned into MASSIVE losses. ...... and Parksom traded only around 1.10++

Hey its NTA still 2.43 wo...

Then came the aggressive AVERAGE DOWN..... how can go wrong? ICAP fella still invested in the stock. Big massive discount now....

Ahhh..... this is where it can get really interesting.

Say initial investment was 3.00. Bought 10,000 shares.

Now price 1.10. Buy how many? Buy 30,000 shares?

Then price dropped 90 sen? Buy 10,000 shares?

Then price dropped 80 sen? Buy 50,000 shares?

Then price dropped 70 sen. Buy how much?

Ooops.... price dropped a lot this year too. Now 55+ sen. Buy how how much?



Now add them up.

What's the average price?



You know... if I throw away all my market knowledge and just analyse these actions.... isn't one BUYING MORE, MORE, MORE of one's initial mistake?

But then the stock market is a beast, an unpredictable beast.

So badly and deadly the Parkson example is, there are always exceptions. As we all KNOW, any stocks can be fried up. Good stocks or bad stocks. Doesn't matter. It's just a stock and it all can be fried.

Naturally this complicates and confuses the hell out most beginners.

They will say... ah... Parkson just one bad example.

They would then use maybe Vivocon and throw that share at my face. They will say... see that share use to be 25 sen. So I bought at hald price. 12.5 sen. I was confident. When it drop to 11.5 sen, I sell all my underwear and buy, and buy and buy. When it hit 14.5 sen, I sell all. Now I buy many new underwear.

Yup.

It does complicates things. So damn confusing.

Which one to use?

One thing I do know is..... WHEN you average down and WHEN the stock keeps falling, one is gonna need A LOT, LOT MORE capital just in order to help recover the losses. So do ask yourself, got enough money ah?

There are many published strategies on how to average up. Basically (unlike averaging down) you are NOT ADVISED to 'double up' when you average up. Most suggest that when we add to our holdings, we should not increase our new average price by more than 10 percent. Google it.

Also do note, WHEN to average up is just as important as HOW MUCH to average up.

YES I do agre . Position sizing & expectancy will help us limit the risk but we still need to do all the little things right.

Why do ppl average down?

Do they average down because they really see that it's an opportunity to make more money?

Or they average down because they want to rectify their losing position?

twhong_91

See? 395 also got.