Election themed stock is way too over rated.

Point me, over the past years/elections ..... just one stock that made it great during pre-election

Don't rely on articles such as this or analysts reports la.

Don't be lazy. Do it your own.



I can't CAN straight away tell you the one who wrote that article is simply cherry picking.



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 8 2017, 09:48 AM

there was a typo in my earlier reply..

Anyway....

So the election was announced on 10 April 2013. What would have been the best strategy?
Buy before (like early in the year) ? Or buy after the dates was announced? Or buy the last trading day before polling?

And when would you sell?

Oh. You used the chart of Tenaga.

I shall say I STRONGLY disagree.

Oh yeah, the chart was very the canton then but have you done the extra work and check out Tenaga's earnings performance then?

Sorry England was out.

I disagree simply because it was an earnings driven stock (and not election theme stock).

So back to those stocks you highlighted on the star newspaper la

Apa macam? You have not answered the issues I raised.

Why no ask black dog and brown dog?

But that's simply cherry picking.

And with past data, so easy to be good.

Take the utusan example. The author highlighted the high of May. But if he used May end data, the performance would be very average only.

And if a punter bought Utusan on any other random date...punter might even lose money.

Yes. Key word is still LOUSY STOCK.


See I could cherry pick a bad example for Media Prima from that Star Article.

Early April 2013, I might chase the stock on breakout and purchase on 8th April. Maybe bought at the high 2.05.
(Why chase on the 8th? Well inside info ma... cos the polling was announced on the 10th April)

On 3 May, the last trading day, Media Prima, was sliding ever since....
It hit a low of 1.71. Down 34 sen.

what would a punter do then?
Media Prima wo...
Heavily linked politically....

Cut loss or not?


See? I cherry picked the trading...... and showed you the worst possible scenario....



Dude, we can use other election years data also.
There's NO conclusive signs that says it is profitable to make trades on election themes laa...

Yet to see the high return.

Well. Check back other reports in 2013.
Look at what these media and analysts where suggesting.
'Election theme' suggestions was early as 2012....


If you play the market long enough....
it's all the same la....

christmas rally....
Raya rally....
CNY rally....
New Year rally....
Depavali rally.....

all also they suggest one....

any how.. any way also can say out one....

Concentrate on the good stocks la.
That way no need scare if Kambing Rally no come.

what took you so long to reply?

Back on to the current malaysian election stocks.

I believe RHB made a long veggie list, consisting of stocks for potential election play last year. As early as Nov 2016. (see the contrast in the star article?)

Now compare stocks like FGV. Use Nov 11 as start date. If buta follow RHB and buy FGV at the closing price of 1.96 or better still, use the lowest price of the day, 1.90. Price today?

Take a past favorite. Prestariang. Price then? 2.33. Price now? 2.12.

Or DRB. Price then 1.23. This one handsome boy but some might argued its up due to asset play situations.

and so on and so on.....

How? Till now still no election kambing.... and in general if simply follow RHB... isn't it much better to ask Miss Kambing to throw some darts?

twhong_91

Looking good or whuutttt ?

Haha! Me holding? You should know that I do not talk about what stocks I hold.

Selling at 32.....
I understand many like to use this self half strategy....
I don't.

For example, 32 doesn't look like a selling point and for me, you are selling just for the sake of selling.
If I have this one.... I would probably just sit on it.

You will always need other bullish people.

Stocks are basically not kia cars. They no kaki kia.

Some check points.

1. Is valuation out of whack?
2. Any deep fundamental concerns/risks?
3. Stock technical sell indicators? ( I might be relax on this if the uptrend is rather solid )

Etc etc....

Always better to work on your own niche. Just don't sell for the sake of selling as this usually ends up with deep regrets of seeing stock multiplying after you sell. Good stocks don't come easily, so if we catch one and the future prospects remain rosy, don't be afraid to hold on to it a bit longer. (Remember.. there is no rule that says the next stock you jump into will be as good.)

My 3 Sen la.... who knows your one might be better than mine one.

But overall you roughly know my style.
Trade fewer stocks, fewer frequencies.

Switching tends to lead to careless mistakes. That's my observations. Maybe it's me.
The reason is one tends to find the urge to switch.
It's just pure impulse.
The stock they have sits on nice profit.
The urge to switch causes the trader to sell just in order to facilitate the trade switch..
The stock they switch to, ends 'early'... stock endures few months of uo and down, not going anywhere....
and the stock they switched from, shoots up another 50%.... sometimes even more.

Seen far too often.
It's also one my mistakes during my early paper trading years.....

I know, sometimes, holding on to the stock can be frustrating....
I once, endured a stock that was up close to 50%...
but somehow the stock...that blardee stock .... went into a much deeper correction that I had anticipated.... maybe I err-ed my technical assessment of the stock... and boy oh boy.... before you know it... I carried close to a 5% loss for the stock....

Yeah.... shit happens....
However, luckily for me, my assessment of its future prospect was spot on.... and rest was history.... made close to a 2 bagger.
Luck I guess....



Now this new one....
this 'new gem'.... of yours....

your concern is the sustainability of its profits growth.
Basically it's a turnaround stock.
Profits are finally returning back to its glory years... 3 solid years of turning around... (you highlighted the strong uptrend in the stock)
So perhaps you might consider the risk of sustainability....
Can the earnings continue to grow?

In short... are you maybe a bit too late to play this one game?

Thanks for sharing anyway.....

Ah.... 'listening to a blogger'....

You should develop your own strength. Listening to others could mess you up (me included )

Anyway... it's past already. You took half profit already. What I would suggest is mark this one trade down into your 555 book for future reference. Keep track of your success and those not so successful. See where you can improve yourself.


hehe.... for stock whose earnings are growing (or turning around) , it's better to know what stage of the growth you are in. Growth do not last forever and usually after a robust growth period, growth tends to slows...... this is my general believe.


ps: anyway, your reasoning process is well thought out. well done and good luck to your new trade.

It depends on situation. No straight answer.