okay, we are talking about money enough to move the stock market... big whales like Soros or Buffett. And then the rest of the minions follow the news that they bought/sold... causing the stampede to enter or exit.

And me thinking that mutual funds are professionally managed with their funds very well diversified among many stocks...

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Jul 13 2017, 02:41 PM

I'm not well in touch with the local businesses... do tell the whole story.

"There's always 2 school of taught in everything we do."

I think the right phrase is "there are 2 sides of the same coin."

And its school of thought - meaning a group or collection of similar thinking/opinions... like a flock of seagulls, a school of fish

Do excuse this grammar police, as I write to improve my English as well.

I think in normal terms, a rolling average usually means a moving average. As like in a market index chart, the moving average of 20, 50 or 200 days can be superimposed onto the daily movement.

If one is already having a matured portfolio of funds, with none or hardly any more fresh money to pour in, it would be much simpler to use the Year-to-year ROI in keeping track of the portfolio performance.

Just keep track of the ROI for each year, then it is easy to compute if we want to know the annualised ROI for the past 2-years, 3-years, 5-years, etc. etc.

Say when at the 6th or 7th year, and there was a huge negative ROI in the 1st or 2nd year, then the 5-years annualised ROI will ignore and discard the 1st 2 years ROI, and will show a higher rate of returns than a 7-years annualised returns.

Is this bluffing ownself? Not really, as over the years, one would have improved the portfolio. And the 5-years figure would give a better indication than a 7-years figure of the portfolio's future performance in the nearer future.

How relevant are all these annualised figures? Very, very relevant - especially if there is a need to decide whether to plough in more money into the portfolio. Especially, when at age 50, 55 or 60, and want to decide whether to keep the money in EPF or not.

By then, you will be much ahead of some of the folks asking in forums "Is it worth it to invest in UT funds? Can get better returns than FD, EPF and fixed priced funds, ahhhh?"

==========

BTW before, some smart aleck would say past performance is no guarantee of future performance, please keep in mind that a matured portfolio would have much higher income funds to equity funds ratio. And also that in the next several years, there would be down years as well as up years, but it can be safely generalised that the portfolio can give the indicated x% returns over a time period of 3 or so years.

How confident you are of the portfolio's future performance giving the x% returns? Well, you have been trimming it, topping it, rebalance it, switch here and there from one fund to another over the years...

... and in the meantime holding cash waiting for the market to crash:

Top 5 Funds 1 Month
Fund Name %
Manulife Dragon Growth Fund - USD Class 8.45
Manulife Dragon Growth Fund -MYR Hedge 8.17
Eastspring Investments Dinasti Equity 7.66
RHB Big Cap China Enterprise Fund 7.41
Manulife Investment Greater China 7.22

Top 5 Funds 3 Month
Fund Name %
InterPac Dana Safi 25.96
InterPac Dynamic Equity Fund 21.71
Manulife Dragon Growth Fund - USD Class 16.95
Manulife Dragon Growth Fund -MYR Hedge 15.39
RHB Big Cap China Enterprise Fund 13.53

... others are laughing all the way to the bank.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 2 2017, 01:25 PM

A quick pullback is more likely than a crash.

How quick can it be? Sharp drop and a quick rebound, maybe over one or two days... if able to catch it, then it's a leg up. How great is the leg up or booster shot, well how much you can or dare to top-up?

(In the first place, do you have the money to top-up?)

(As often quoted here: "It is not about timing the market, but time spend in the market." Meaning that the returns are proportionate to the length of time in holding the investments/funds; and implying that it is easier to get these higher returns by holding them than timing and trading them in and out.)

Crash - not yet. If there is no bubble, what is there to burst? And if there is a perceived bubble (in your eyes), how will it burst when it is not over-inflated?

Signs of over-hype, over-inflated bubble developing: All and sundry is in the stock market, including those who normally don't. You will read it in the Sunday papers on normal folks who is now spending time trading stocks instead of working OT or double shifts or doing 2nd jobs or part-time jobs - easy money to be made.

You will read replies in forums telling the jobless to 'earn' some money at the stock exchange instead of the usual advices of doing uber.

Some bubble will be about to burst when you hear folks saying they can get easy money sitting at home in front of a terminal rather than spending time on the road doing uber or manning a burger stand.

And how would a market crash affect normal folks like you or me? Nothing much unless your company is affected and you are retrenced. If you still have a job, life goes on... and your regular savings into UT funds continue on...

And if you not in the accumulating and beginning stage, and had already build up a tidy sum of money and nest egg, I think you would already structured your portfolio of funds and its equity/income ratio such that it is ready at all times to handle any eventualities.

Just my 2 cents....

Future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 7 2017, 03:44 PM

wah, you still want to pretend you are sharing your opinions and ideas, when in actual fact you are sharing stupidity and nonsense.

Your above comment in reply to my long post... looks like english, sounds like english, but it is greek. All are incoherent nonsense.

"Yes. Most likely a quick pullback. But must pounce when there are opportunities. That's why must have ready cash."
So the YTD gains and monthly gains for the last 3 months are what? Are they not buying "opportunities"?

Do you know that a pullback is defined as a drop of about 5% from the peak? So tell me whether it is smart or foolish to wait 6 months for a sharp 1 day drop of 5% to make your purchase, and missed the 6 months gain of 20%.

'In the past 6 months, an UT fund had grown by 20%, this morning today, its benchmark index drops 5%, today is the best time to buy with all your money that you have been saving and keeping for the last 6 months.'

It sounds logic or not? Of course it sounds logic to a jobless graduate who is funded by parents. Easy money - easy come, easy go.

"Can a crash happen? Of course. You just need either china or US to be in trouble. People seems to forget that unit trust is still a basket of stocks."
Why are you saying this in reply to my post? Did I say that the market will never crash? Did you really read and comprehend what I wrote?

"A pullback is nothing. A crash is what one needs to be worried whether the company will retrench or not."
Do you know what happens during a market crash? Don’t la talk like a smartass who has been through a real market crash and thinking that a market crash will affect everyone in the country. Then what the fuck were you going on and on about hold cash?

You are one fucking moron… yes, I am damn annoyed. (Yes, I too can pretend to be angry, just like you pretend to be smart and talking like a know-it-all authoritative figure when you're just a jobless duke fresh out of school.)

Who wouldn’t be annoyed? I took the time to share some opinions and to further the discussion, and here you are replying to my post, trying to counter my input and brushing it aside with a seemingly sounding authoritative voice – "A pullback is nothing. A crash is what one needs to be worried whether the company will retrench or not."

What a moronic, trolling, waste-of-time-and space, useless piece of shitty comment which you had so effortlessly pull out of your arse. Great job! Well done!

He should. That 90k is a starter, and the first few steps of the journey. Should get on and stay on the fast lane.

U already living it up and on the fast side la...

Investing in sweet sweet things not living it up on the vroom vroom lane meh...

The only things I can recall are learned from Hollywood - so don't know whether it is true or not - that the Chinese curse their enemies by wishhing them "May you live in exciting times."

=============

So things sort of quiet down... Korea Angst Shows Signs of Abating as Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...pi-markets-wrap

... till DPRK shoots some test missiles later this week or maybe next week, and my guess is Trump will shoot them down in mid flight - just to show that USA can do so.

Then there will be mad rush to exit...



The future's so bright, i gotta wear shades.


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 14 2017, 03:14 PM

There is no such thing as 'indicative price'... and it causes the confusion perpetuate by FSM.

There is only one price published by the fund companies. The term "Forward pricing" explains when the price are released... after each closing day.

Funds with foreign equities are released the next business day as they need to wait for the forex quotation publised by some party in London at London's time.

Funds without foreign equities don't have to determine the forex to calculate its nav price, and are usually released the same evening after the bursa closes.

FSM is an intermediary, for faster updates - see the fund companies sites.

===========

2/3 business days to know the prices - those were the days when there was no internet and the only place to read the prices are from newsprint.

LOL. Another fun post to whack! Was thinking whether to do another dreamer style line by line... nah, will be spending too much time in trolling... so just a few choice sentences to whack.

"Even a working adult can do all that."
Every working adult knows it and have done it. Except you - who can only make assumptions and imagine what's it likes.

Only a juvenile likes to do theorectical anaylysis on which is the better investment vehicle... while a working adult with the means would already have A, B, C and now moving onwards to D.

"...if you seen what I have seen that the market being irrational lately, you should know it's better to stop buying rather than buying..."
wah, still talking kok and pretending you have been through lots of events and sharing hands-on experience.

"...can you get 12% yearly...."
Another stupidity. He was showing you a annualised figure la. You knows what it means or not. It means that the ROI in that 10-years period, was over 1,600%. Fund A gained more than 500% over Fund B... and you go widely off tangent to say that 6% consistent annual returns is much more preferable.

And don't go saying that the ROI was lump-sum 10 years ago, and that using the DCA method will gives a different ROI. If want to use DCA, then give same threatment to Fund B too. A better fund is still the better fund - no matter how you viewed it.

Spend so much time hanging in this UT thread, and still hyping and wanting consistent positive returns in a straight line growth.

Where is all the volatility, dips, crash, bull and rally that was talk kok all this while?

Okay, all of them rumours/news, market trends, bull & rally are talk kok only for theory theiory... in your head! This is serious money la... but then again not something you can easily imagine when there is no regular money rolling in every month to spend on investments that can generate a lost one week after buying.

Yes, we buy UT becuase we have the money to lose!

=========

PS. Sometimes I have too much time to lose too!

Edit: wah,,. too many spelling errors!


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 16 2017, 01:04 AM

KLCI is the index of a group of the largest companies in the country's stock exchange, alike Dow Jones, STI (Singapore) or HSI (Hong Kong). Good as a barometer to gauge the state of economy in general.

I don't think the incdex would be any help in picking stocks - especially those listed outside of the main board, in the ACE market.

===========

As an investor in UT funds, I think it is advisable to read the fund's prospectus to know what sort of stocks it can have. For example, for a small-cap fund, its prospectus would define what are the permissible stocks it can invest in - like being a component in the bursa small-cap index, capitalisation from 300 million to 1.2 billion. etc. etc.

If the fund is picking stocks in ACE, then it should not be compared to another small-cap fund holding stcoks in the small-cap index and compare only their returns without taking other factors into consideration. The risk is not the same. Extraodinary returns, extraodinary risk.

It adds nothing new to this thread that we didn't already knew.

"Only 5 of the 13 managed to beat..." sums up why this thread is active.

One good fund to hold is more than enough.

Looks like english, sounds like english, but it is greek to me... on head, no tail, jump here, jump there... can't see which view he is coming from or getting to.

Another gibberish waste-time-waste-space post to say he knows something that others are ignorance of.

wow, talk kok post also you check for factual facts!

Good thing you miss my 1,600% ROI in a previous post. LOL.

Now we are getthing somewhere... I think you can see for yourself how incoherent was the previous post. And you have also given up to defence your 'wait till market crash before buying" and talking something else completely.

Yes, timing can be important in our purchases. But what you have shown is that there is an investor's returns which is different from fund's returns. The investor's returns as you had correctly said is depended on the time we make the purchase.

As for waiting for the right opportunity to invest and on compounding, you are mixing them and contradicting them against each other.

When you can foresee a better opportunity in the near future, of course you wait for it. So does everyone else.

The gist of this 'wait for market crash' discussion is that how can we foresee it. Who can tell when it will happen? And what will actually happen when the market dropped sharply 20 or 40%? If you read the article in the previous page, it was argued that a rebound is more likely to happen than a long recession (where the market will stay flat and move slowly downwards for a long time.)

By waiting for the right moment, you could be wasting a lot of time. An option to overcome it and not let time goes to waste is investing little by little, on a regular basis - ie. DCA method.

As we understood, compounding of interest works its magic over time. The DCA method of little-by-little over a long period of time recognise this compounding magic.

Your "If you topup small amount, your gain is insignificant..." is a misguided notion. When we are talking of returns, it is in terms of percentage growth. A x% growth on 1k, 10k or 100k is still the same x%. If the returns in dollar terms for a 1k or whatever it is, is too small and puny for you to bother to invest it, and wait till you have a larger amount, then it is fine with us.

You are waiting and saving for a larger amount of money before you begin your purchases. Nothing wrong, and everyone does it too. But if you are trying to say that you are waiting for the right moment... well, read back the above part on lost opportunities and compounding magic of doing it little by little.

Take s bit of time to think... hopefully you can see that in your previous posts, you were going in circles without giving a valid or reasonable opinion why it is better to wait for the right moment to invest and NOT begin as soon as possible where there is any spare money to start the purchases.

=============

BTW Compounding is about keeping the interest or dividend or returns in the initial principal sum of money. So that the next phase of growth or interest/dividends payment is on both the initial principal and interest/growth.

It is applicable on somethings like annualised returns - where it is referring to annuallised compounded growth. I have yet to see it is apply to forex and yet to hear people say "oh, this currency had a dropped of so-and-so compounded lost for the past 10 years."

Once again you have gone widely off tangent in the last part... which makes it difficult to counter since I have no idea what you are trying to say.

And for your info, a fund that is holding foreign equities, bonds, or whatnot that are listed in the stock exchange in that foreign country do have the risk of forex too, eventhough the fund is quoted in ringgit.

The only difference between the fund quoted in ringgit and in USD (or whatever currency) is that the ringgit fund has to convert the forex to get its unit price very business day.

Your notion that only funds in USD or Sing dollars or whatever currency can have forex growth when ringgit drops is misguided.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Aug 19 2017, 09:12 PM

Question is what was your expectations when you bought it. If it is meeting your expectations or beyond, then why bother with other funds, be the other 4 winners or the 8 other losers.

That's was the point of my previous comment: you can show all the statistics that are in favour of ETFs with lower fees and whatnot, all the stats and figures becomes meaningless to me if the fund I am having is giving me my expected returns. (Read it also like nothng gained lohh...)

Unless of course, the stats jotted me from slumber and show that I was holding a real loser fund... which is not a likely event if I keep track of it and review it against other funds periodically.

And of course it is a boost to the ego when we happen to hold the fund giving the best returns... can show-show, brag-brag.



Past track record is everything... else the fund would not even make it onto the short list for consideration in making a purchase into it.

They means the same thing. It is mandated to hold a mixture of bonds, income securities and equites. In some of the older funds, the permissible ratio of bonds and equities is usually in the ratio of 40/60 to 60/40 or 30/70 to 70/30.

In some newer funds, the ratio can be from 2/98 to 98/2. (It can't sailang 100% into equities because it needs to have some liquid cash to run the fund.)

Having a balanced fund in a volatile market is good in that the fund manager is permissible to varies the equity portion accordingly. If the fund manager time and get it correct, then everythink is fine and good. But if he got it wrong...

Because of this flexibilty to adjust the ratio as the fund manager deems fit, some (if not most) people likes to do it on their own by having a mixture of equity and bond and money-market funds and do the adjustments themsleves.

Normally, for a beginner, if only one fund to hold, it will be an equity fund. Needless to say, greed and the want of fast money is the reason to have an equity fund over other types of funds. It is either go big, or go home.

============

The future's so bright, i gotta wear shades.

Reading the 1st para already giving me cancer... sorry, can't bother to read further and decipher which is my words, which is yours.

If you want to further the discussion, make youself coherent first. Take some time to phrase your sentences that I can see what you are speaking about.

And without referring to some article which I have to read first to get what you are talking about. If you can't form any opinion out of the article, then it is a waste of time for me to read it too.

Lol. You are funny! Making gibberish sentences that are contradictory to each other do not makes one a contrarian.

No need to shut up & be driven away as this is an open forum.

Carry on & keep us entertain with more nonsense posts!