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 Fundsupermart.com v15, 基金超市第十五章 - Rise the Dragon

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AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Oct 13 2016, 12:17 PM)
are tis index funds ?
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AMB and RHB track KLCI while PMB track FBMSHA.

Not sure whether is it right to comment this way?

But in terms of performance in local equities, be it conventional or islamic counterpart, would it be better if you invest in those non index-linked fund?

See attached.


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AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(kswee @ Oct 11 2016, 05:58 PM)
LATEST NEWS, CORPORATE
TA Investment Management declares one-for-five unit split for technology fund

KUALA LUMPUR: (Oct 11): TA Investment Management Bhd, a subsidiary of TA Securities Holdings Bhd, has declared a unit split for its TA Global Technology Fund.

Registered unit holders as of Oct 10 will receive one new unit for every five held, the company said in a statement today.

The fund aims to seek long term capital appreciation by investing in a collective investment scheme, which invests mainly in a globally diversified portfolio of technology-related companies.

TA Investment Management said the relative valuation of the technology sector is attractive, especially given balance sheet strength.

“Meanwhile, technology companies face significant secular changes in enterprise demand, coupled with the maturation of the PC and smartphone markets.

“Therefore, we continue to focus bottom-up on powerful secular themes and growth at a reasonable price,” it added.
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QUOTE(Drian @ Oct 13 2016, 02:21 PM)
wow what happened , TA global technology fund lost 13% in one day.
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Wondering how many will ask the same thing? sweat.gif
AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Oct 13 2016, 02:24 PM)
My fault didn't investigate first.
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But even if you smooth out the unit split, it is still dropping

QUOTE(DearWJ @ Oct 13 2016, 02:31 PM)
Yesterday Asian Market dropped kaw kaw but Ponzi 2 still rose about 1.35%

So today still up up and up? @@
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Ponzi 2.0 had been dropping since last Friday
AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(DearWJ @ Oct 13 2016, 02:40 PM)
Is it? I checked the NAV just now, it's 0.3112 on tuesday, yesterday Asian Market got into red but it rose to 0.3154. What a great pump up huh?

and i topped up yesterday  cry.gif
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hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

what tempted you to top up yesterday?

I will patiently wait until next monday RSP date and let it decide for me nod.gif


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AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 03:11 PM

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How do we actually evaluate the performance for the same fund with different currencies?

Say, Ponzi 2.0 are available in 3 currencies format: MYR for Malaysia and SGD & USD for Singapore

1st one is MYR, 2nd one is SGD, 3rd one is USD

I know is not that simple, but wouldnt it shows that if you invest in USD you will gain more after currency exchange?

Say if you invest both different classes at 1000USD and 1000SGD respectively, after 1 year, based on the performance figure, USD to SGD exchange rate didnt fluctuate much, USD classes earn more than SGD classes? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by AIYH: Oct 13 2016, 03:13 PM


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AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Oct 13 2016, 03:26 PM)
Something to remember when you try to time the market - For foreign funds forex plays an important role on top of the ups and downs in various equity markets
In fact forex would have more certainty in predicting if the fund would go up/down than the market indexes because the fund may or may not invest in the indexed stocks and the weightage in each top holding and market is also dynamic. The only information you have is fact sheet which is at least 1 month old

My simple solution to that is, I don't try to time the market, because I suck at it
Hmm, the answer to this question is rather complex

Each class would be translated to its denominated currency on daily basis

So although the exchange rate for 13/10/15 and 13/10/16 for USD:SGD is identical, in between there were lots of fluctuations and the transactions took place during the year would be affected by those fluctuations

The only instance where it would be exactly the same would be during the RM pegging of USD at 3.8 because there were no forex movement in the whole year.

Hope that makes sense
Anyway, is this an important consideration? The SGD and USD class as I understand is to be distributed by CIMB in other Asean countries instead of Malaysia. If you invest in the MYR class just focus on the MYR performance lor
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Not making decision, just thinking that for such a foreign funds, if forex rate do play a role in it, wouldnt understand the stability/volatility of a certain currency or the denominated currency of the holdings part of the consideration in deciding which denominated currency of the fund we should go for even though they are all the same fund manager?

Secondly, I have heard quite some people saying that Malaysia currency is weakening, better invest outside the country for investment opportunity. I am wondering if we invest these domestic and foreign instruments in different currency and different countries, how do we actually understand or decide which part of our investment has a better performance if the picture I posted previously consisted of different funds from different fund managers from different countries?

This post has been edited by AIYH: Oct 13 2016, 03:46 PM
AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Oct 13 2016, 03:48 PM)
Now we know who has platinum status  notworthy.gif
And I have to say this, your % of holdings in gold & general times with 750k  mega_shok.gif
Well, last time lukenn always post graphs with forex to show how much of the gains came from forex

A good place to do that is bloomberg as you can plot the feeder fund, the source fund and the forex in one chart

To be honest, I think you missed the boat if you want to ride on the forex gain. Do you think we will hit USD1:RM5 anytime soon? If it's just 4.4, the gain would be rather minimal
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wa, if riding on rhb gold to reach platinum status, imagine if it crashes, wow laugh.gif

Hard to say, and really depends on the political situation in the one/two years laugh.gif
AIYH
post Oct 13 2016, 10:47 PM

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Ponzi 2.0 has around 6.59% on thailand, while RHB AIF has 4.3% on thailand, not sure how much the impact will be, but for all of us who have them, good luck laugh.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 12:27 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 14 2016, 12:11 AM)
I presume the impact, if any is due to knee jerk reaction
Thus, bau if investment is for mid to long term
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Good as RSP date is coming soon rclxms.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Oct 14 2016, 09:08 AM)
it wouldn't be much compared to the double digits that some funds invest in Thailand.

that said it will be a knee jerk reaction as they already slated the crown prince to take over and not the Princess.

if the Princess takes over rest assured she will mobilize the army and spark another civil war.

This comes from my friend living in Thailand and he will move back to Malaysia if this scenario happens.
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From what I know, last time some news said that the prince doesnt seem to qualify to take over the throne.

Not sure what is the current situation or news in thailand, care to share? smile.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Oct 14 2016, 10:02 AM)
everyone thinks the thais really love their king but in truth the king has been hated by the poor thais as he is anti democratic and an elitist.

starting today everyone in Thailand must wear black. failure to doing so will get you beaten up and sent to jail. my friend's family is anti monarchy and rightly so.

the palace and junta have to out the crown prince on the throne as he is next in line eventho everyone hates him due to his wild parties and etc. NOT putting him on the throne will anger the royatlist. putting the Princess on the throne will make the poor happy but the junta is against it.
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Oo, so media coverage from both thai and international had a bit conflict of interest, even some international media gave good reputation commentary to thai king rclxub.gif

So in a way, either prince or the princess ascend the throne, it will still cause a lot of instability in terms of political and social environment? doh.gif

That is a really unpredictable time and market for thailand sad.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 10:41 AM)
My point was already mentioned in the previous post.

The three funds are separate entities, there is no way to emulate Ponzi 2.0 + RHB ATR with RHB AIF.

If one wants to invest only RHB AIF for longer term, he might as well instead invest in RHB ATR due to no service charge.

If one wants to invest in Ponzi 2.0, that's a separate risk accessment, an independent exposure, comes with it's risks and gains.
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According to the latest semi annual report for Schroder Asian Income (RHB AIF Target Fund), the EQ:FI portion is roughly 6:4

Schroder Asian Income Semi Annual Report 20160630

Use that as a benchmark, we similarly create Ponzi 2.0 60% and RHB ATR 40%, and no rebalancing.

Portfolio 1 is combo Ponzi 2.0 and ATR
Portfolio 2 is AIF.

Here is the 3 year result. (as AIF is only 4 years old tongue.gif )

p/s: just a illustration smile.gif
My comment: the combo's incremental volatility is higher than the combo's incremental return in percentage of incremental smile.gif Therefore the combo is not better in risk adjusted return smile.gif

Is this how you evaluate? xuzen, learning process tongue.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AIYH: Oct 14 2016, 10:56 AM


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AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Oct 14 2016, 10:23 AM)
people are afraid now that the leash has broken. the junta and the poor will begin another clash. remember there's almost a thousand red shirts unaccounted for and nobody knows where they have gone.

Anyways not to derail the topic, investors are looking at both news from ground level and it is not a pretty sight. if the palace doesn't short this out and a civil war erupts, fsm will be sure to give it a bad rating.

oh well that's life. let us focus on unit trusts. I derailed the topic enough.
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But at least some one among us can share their perspective in understanding the market to aid learning.

After all, that is how we learn to analyze the market to determine whether it is just a noise or is it a momentum effect to a certain bull or bear market for that affect sector/region (even though UT is designed to let the fund manager do this, but from here we can understand how everyone perceive the market)

I am sure the reaction here will be faster than FSM articles? no? laugh.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 11:06 AM)
This comparison is helpful. But I guess because there is no rebalancing throughout, as such we have removed the most realistic portion of the evaluation.

If we look at the history more than 3 years ( where human-dependent rebalancing were carried out ), in reality, the RHB AIF has become very closed to RHB ATR.
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Erm you are comparing a combo and a single fund, how rebalancing will be helpful in comparing the 2? laugh.gif

Plus this tool only consider initial investment without considering DCA/RSP/Irregular top up (only rebalance date based on when you play the simulation) rolleyes.gif

Not really, they are not close, yet they are not distinct... could it be that both of their target fund come from the same fund manager (both from schroder)? hmm.gif tongue.gif


AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 14 2016, 11:22 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


I am a student / follower of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory. What you mention above = siapa punya teori ar?

Xuzen
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Newbie baby step theory laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

I do know sharpe ratio to measure them, but dont really understand how to evaluate them based on them in real life, because sharpe ratio alone is not enough

When we talk about better risk adjusted return, what metric(s) do we based on?

QUOTE(puchongite @ Oct 14 2016, 11:26 AM)
I am not sure we are talking about the same thing. All I was saying that your comparison of portfolio 1 vs portfolio 2 is not realistic in the sense it is not conveying the true picture, because you have fixed the ratio of ponzi 2.0% and RHB ATR % vs the dynamic (internal) rebalancing within the RHB AIF itself.

So when you use these charts to drawing a conclusion, your conclusion might be skewed.
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that would be very complex laugh.gif

and it is kinda impossible unless you feed all the funds annual report or fact sheet and all of them mention their equity fi portion and simulate them whatever proportion you wish to compare which is kinda complicated laugh.gif

you can try to do the simulation by keying the transaction in FSM mobile app, but too much to enter in phone laugh.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 14 2016, 11:49 AM)
Below is copy & pasted post I wrote in Feb 2015. Read see if you can understand better what are risk - adjusted return performance measurement tools are.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Roughly learnt during studies smile.gif

Do they have tool to calculate those?

I only come across Sharpe ratio readily available

Also our UT risk free rate is based on which instrument? Annualized EPF?
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 14 2016, 07:47 PM)
I have a few queations regarding RHB ATRF
(i) can the return be (-)/at FD board rate after holding say 1 year?
(ii) can it give min 7% or it will be less? (I am using rhb islamic bond fund as a benchmark for stable yearly returns)
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Actually the tools in FSM, such as fund info, chart center and portfolio simulator can assist you in answering those question smile.gif

But to give you a hint, ATR return is not bad, but both funds you mention invest in different region

And given the nature of ATR, will recommend you to DCA instead smile.gif

This post has been edited by AIYH: Oct 14 2016, 07:55 PM
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 14 2016, 08:18 PM)
Actually I am looking for bond fund which can give min >=7%. No point buying one if it can give lower returns than the proven rhb islamic bond fund which can give 7% p.a when both are bond fund. Who cares about where/how it invest. As long as the returns match one's expected return (in this case RHB IBF). After all, end of the day, it's all about making money.

Returns not bad, but have the returns dim below 7% p.a (the table shows not) but I would like to hear from fellow forumers.
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If you can do DCA, then RHB ATR can net you higher return smile.gif

But if you prefer lump sum and have a peace of mind (still got fluctuation but not as much), just stick with RHB IBF IMO biggrin.gif
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Oct 14 2016, 08:46 PM)
if I am SURE that you don't need to use the money in the next 12 months....
(I will allocate my funds to ensure that I don't need the money)
worst come to worst...pay the redemption fees....

I would go for the RHB IBF....
VERY MUCH lower volatility, continuously progressing at pace....
(But, there is always a risks for this type of BOND fund....the quality of its holdings.....how many % AAA, AA, etc,etc...)
study and compare them with other FHs.....why others did not have such good returns? how is their holdings?
Few years ago, i shown RHB IBF holdings to another FM......he said, some of the holdings in RHB IBF failed their preliminary buying assessment...
he continue by saying,....that is why RHB IBF can gives better returns,.....if you can stomach the possible debt default risks...go for it.

RHB ATRF......only the last 2 + yrs performing....most probably due to the RM depreciating.....

my take is the RHB ATRF, splendid performance may not repeat in the next 2 years......
but if you look at the IRR...it is still showing "GOOD"
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What does it mean by preliminary buying assessment? Sort of like for a product to be qualified under PIDM? or is it like a credit rating/quality assessment? smile.gif

This post has been edited by AIYH: Oct 14 2016, 08:51 PM
AIYH
post Oct 14 2016, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Oct 14 2016, 08:58 PM)
I believe he meant, they have a criteria to assess the quality of the debt papers. (RAM Rating....)
sort of bank assessment of the loan applications....
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So in a way, he described the RHB IBF's holdings similar to sub prime loan/mortgage? laugh.gif

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