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 USD/MYR v4

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TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 11:14 AM

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Quote from Bloomberg today:

Malaysia’s ringgit -- which typically moves in line with oil prices given the country is Asia’s only major net crude exporter -- was little changed as the dollar’s revival canceled out gains from the OPEC deal
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 1 2016, 11:08 AM)
Just shows how much CONfidence the debtors have in the Ringgit
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The current 10 yrs MGS yield of 4.35% is simply irresistible for foreigners
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 1 2016, 11:54 AM)
Yeah
BUT, are they biting?
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Based on current High yield, it looks like investor is selling
Having said tat, another group of investors may think otherwise
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 1 2016, 12:06 PM)
The RM troughed down early this morning and immediately re-spiked up !!! The cross-currencies have been slower in responding,... This is the time for us to buy-in,.. eg the AUD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/MYR%3DX#eyJ...nZSI6IjVkIn0%3D
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Bro,
In fact u can perform cross currencies in order to hedge instead of direct 1 to 1
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 1 2016, 12:14 PM)
Bro,... I know that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Why do you think I stayed up every night and keyed-in the movements into my program to monitor the momentum ? I buy the crosses, not the USD !!!!!!!!!!
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I must learn from u now since u r sifu notworthy.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 1 2016, 12:12 PM)
Bro,... with this type of environment, you give 10% also nobody will buy the sovereign bonds. Asset prices are good now overseas,... better scrape all I can to convert out to buy overseas assets,............. and certainly before the doors are closed.

With DT as the world leader, many doors will be closed !
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My ony fear sweat.gif is DT might U-Turn his plan in d eleventh hour as global financial markets have factor-in his action plan
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 03:29 PM

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OPEC deal hurts Asia FX; China takes more steps to curb outflows
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/o...s-curb-outflows

The pains continue for MYR despite production cut
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 1 2016, 05:42 PM)
opec deal, oil price up, pressure on rm.
trump win, pressure.
fed hike, pressure.
rmb devalue, pressure.
cpo price down, pressure.
foreigners sell bursa, pressure.
foreginers sell mgs, prsessure.

rm is in a pressure cooker or what?! biggrin.gif
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Hahaha...
I know when speaker speaks at PWTC, delegate pleasure tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 1 2016, 05:50 PM)
pressure cooker with power off, rm already peg, see forever 4.46.
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Some biz man/entrepreneur say 4.46 is gud as they claim 'I can c clearly plus with certainty' tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 1 2016, 06:22 PM)
we see what 2017 will bring.

not good for rm according to goldman:
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Do u know wat is the assumption on exchange rate USD/MYR during 2017 Budget in Oct 2016?
Afaik tat they may calibrate 2017 Budget in Q1/17 to take into account external factors (as quoted in newspaper)
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 1 2016, 06:41 PM)
don't know, but i would think about 4.0 since that was the avg in july-sep.

can recalibrate until the cows come home.

result will be the same - issue more sukuks/mgs.

can't see how else to fulfill the spending or more than likely, overspending.
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I predict there will b many takers for Sukuk/Mgs tis time coz the yield (10 yrs MGS) is High
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 1 2016, 06:52 PM)
hope so.

maybe 5% for 10 yr.

what happens to RM then? tongue.gif
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Perhaps u shld start some homework to determine whether there is any co-relation between 10 yrs yield n RM tongue.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 1 2016, 07:16 PM)
i hope they never said trump will never be president too.
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How to crash when our BNM still have plenty of USD reserves
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 1 2016, 07:50 PM)
and please pray that they are not consistently wrong in their forecasting.
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How to predict correctly as v dun have any crystall ball
Having said tat, a small variance ranging from 1% to 5% (depends on circumstances) is acceptable
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 09:12 PM

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Dollar pauses after OPEC-led surge
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/d...-opec-led-surge

Gud news for MYR?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 1 2016, 09:43 PM

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I tot some Ppl said BNM have indirectly peg the currency @ 4.45 in order to calm n stabilize d rate hmm.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2016, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 2 2016, 08:12 AM)
Yeah,.. assuming the above is true,.. then if the RM happens to strengthen below 4.45, say to 4.30, the peg will be wasted.
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It won't b wasted coz it will calm those users who require USD for daily settlements
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2016, 04:34 PM

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Awaiting gud news tonite from USD nonfarm payrolls n employment rate which shall push USD to greater height
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2016, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 2 2016, 11:24 AM)
THIS is very worrying...........Ringgit may become a pariah currency with the Western developed nations
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Saw an article by Pascal Najadi in Linkedin
He wrote : The Malaysian Ringgit - The disappearing currency
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 2 2016, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Dec 2 2016, 12:57 PM)
I foresee it to reverse the gains made today next week due to the speculation of the Feds rate hike. It's safe to say that if the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment rate that would be released today is positive, then the market should be pricing in for a rate hike on the 13th/14th December, right ?
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If u blif in reversal of USD strength, perhaps u shld consider to short now brows.gif
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