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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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danmooncake
post Sep 27 2016, 02:03 AM

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There is also Trump vs Clinton debate in 6~7 hours time. Should be interested to see how market reacts the following day.


zacknistelrooy
post Sep 27 2016, 04:39 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 27 2016, 02:03 AM)
There is also Trump vs Clinton debate in 6~7 hours time.  Should be interested to see how market reacts the following day.
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Yes and she has increased her lead in a two person race at least in one of the polls.

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AVFAN
post Sep 27 2016, 04:35 PM

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markets seem buoyed by clinton's debate "win".


crude... all ears on first words coming out of opec meet, i'm sure.

reuters seem to be always the first one to report anything.



zacknistelrooy
post Sep 27 2016, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 27 2016, 04:35 PM)
markets seem buoyed by clinton's debate "win".
crude... all ears on first words coming out of opec meet, i'm sure.

reuters seem to be always the first one to report anything.
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Oil sinks after Saudi Arabia, Iran play down chances of output deal

Headlines king and queen.
AVFAN
post Sep 27 2016, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Sep 27 2016, 06:19 PM)
well, we have this situation:

.. saudi pushed production to record highs.
.. saudi has enough reserves to burn a few usdbil everyday for a few more years for its economy.
.. iran and iraq not back to pre-sanction production levels.
.. libya and nigeria still battling rebels to get back to normal production.
.. venezuela on verge of economic collapse, algeria struggling.
.. russians know everything and what else is happening, what next to come.
.. americans go easy - shale is there, forever, to be used whenever whenever required.
.. >3bil bbls in excess crude now sitting on land or water, drifting, buying time, incurring costs.

so, what to expect?

.. saudi's "i will cut or freeze" will not impress the rest as they are not stupid, will not fall for bait.
.. venezuela and algeria will keep talking up the price - that's all they have been doing and can do - with some success, so far.
.. big oil cos., refineries, traders, hedge funds will need to adjust.

we will see the same farcical circus over and over until... crude goes <40 again for a while.

then, all will wake up and shelve their selfish motives, get on with it.

but will not be very successful since shale, nuclear and other alternative energies will be there.

in short, the glorious days of mighty petro$ and obscene money throwing is over. just like kodak went bankrupt when the digital age came.


*** above is just my observation, not liable for any action that failed as a result. laugh.gif


Ramjade
post Sep 27 2016, 10:38 PM

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You forgot to add:
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 27 2016, 07:27 PM)
well, we have this situation:

.. saudi pushed production to record highs.
.. saudi has enough reserves to burn a few usdbil everyday for a few more years for its economy.
.. iran and iraq not back to pre-sanction production levels.
.. libya and nigeria still battling rebels to get back to normal production.
.. venezuela on verge of economic collapse, algeria struggling.
.. russians know everything and what else is happening, what next to come.
.. americans go easy - shale is there, forever, to be used whenever whenever required.
.. >3bil bbls in excess crude now sitting on land or water, drifting, buying time, incurring costs.
.. China's mystery oil stockpiles could be a 'wildcard' for markets

so, what to expect?

.. saudi's "i will cut or freeze" will not impress the rest as they are not stupid, will not fall for bait.
.. venezuela and algeria will keep talking up the price - that's all they have been doing and can do - with some success, so far.
.. big oil cos., refineries, traders, hedge funds will need to adjust.

we will see the same farcical circus over and over until... crude goes <40 again for a while.

then, all will wake up and shelve their selfish motives, get on with it.

but will not be very successful since shale, nuclear and other alternative energies will be there.

in short, the glorious days of mighty petro$ and obscene money throwing is over. just like kodak went bankrupt when the digital age came.
*** above is just my observation, not liable for any action that failed as a result. laugh.gif
*
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/27/chinas-myst...markets-sp.html
danmooncake
post Sep 27 2016, 10:44 PM

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Yesterday up 3%, today down 3%. Roller coaster ride again. puke.gif

AVFAN
post Sep 27 2016, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 27 2016, 10:38 PM)
that article is much a rewrite.

read it before, posted it some weeks ago. here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-crude-markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-wild...-153918654.html

china is major consumer, not a producer.

with china growth slowing, and its oil stocks at full capacity, this factor can only add to the woes.

not only china, global trade is slowing.

QUOTE
WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast to 1.7%
The World trade Organization cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more than a third on Tuesday, reflecting a slowdown in China and falling levels of imports into the United States.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/27/wto-cuts-20...cast-to-17.html


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 27 2016, 11:45 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 27 2016, 11:00 PM

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hm... wti approaching 44.

didn't short enough! laugh.gif
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 28 2016, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 27 2016, 11:00 PM)
hm... wti approaching 44.

didn't short enough! laugh.gif
*
It is starting to make lower highs which is becoming concerning.

The resolution is going to be interesting.
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2016, 01:25 AM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Sep 28 2016, 12:53 AM)
It is starting to make lower highs which is becoming concerning.

The resolution is going to be interesting.
*
guess -3.6% was a bit too much, so it went back up to 45 - for a while.

w/o fresh news, still same - expected buildup in weekly stocks, little to come out of opec.

so, dwti again! tongue.gif

looking for wti 43.xx tmrw.

after 2am will give some clue.
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 28 2016, 01:29 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 28 2016, 01:25 AM)
guess -3.6% was a bit too much, so it went back up to 45 - for a while.

w/o fresh news, still same - expected buildup in weekly stocks, little to come out of opec.

so, dwti again! tongue.gif

looking for wti 43.xx tmrw.

after 2am will give some clue.
*
Yeah, just keeps bouncing randomly.

Can't even find the importance of the bounce level on the chart.
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2016, 02:00 AM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Sep 28 2016, 01:29 AM)
Yeah, just keeps bouncing randomly.

Can't even find the importance of the bounce level on the chart.
*
it's all gone wild.

2am... looking like prepped to fall further.
danmooncake
post Sep 28 2016, 04:15 AM

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Phew! so far $44 is holding,.at least got some room for tomorrow event.

If they do nothing, then I don't think Oil will move big either way.

But, gotta to stay above $43 by Friday closing.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 28 2016, 04:16 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 28 2016, 09:52 PM

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Oil price waiting for news from OPEC which could be in another 10 minutes.
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 28 2016, 10:34 PM

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Oil prices extend gains as US crude stockpiles fall by 1.9M barrels.

Iran rejects Saudi offer to cap oil output ahead of Opec meeting

Quite weird that they are going to the meeting when they know they are not going to agree on anything. Maybe planning for next month meeting.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 28 2016, 10:36 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 28 2016, 10:53 PM

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crude draw, gasoline buildup.

opec... biggrin.gif

down, down...
danmooncake
post Sep 28 2016, 11:51 PM

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Easy easy easy... a bit of relief here. sweat.gif
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 12:15 AM

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Algeria proposes 796K bpd OPEC cut at meeting-Bloomberg

Libyan oil minister Mossa Elkony said an agreement could come today

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 29 2016, 12:17 AM
AVFAN
post Sep 29 2016, 02:08 AM

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up, down, up... nail biting! biggrin.gif

all will be known later when the first opec person speaks.

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