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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2016, 03:47 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 30 2016, 03:43 AM)
If oil is above 50, more shale oil will be online.
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Yes that is what will probably happen.

Even now I heard there are a few shale plays that are making money.
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2016, 11:40 PM

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BREAKING: Deutsche Bank shares spike after report it is near DOJ settlement



false alarm, all is good now. biggrin.gif

DAX went from, -2% t o+1%.

DOW +200, recovered from yesterday.

crude... holding at 48.
yok70
post Oct 1 2016, 12:00 AM

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was there any correction happened this year? why i can't recall any? whole year bullish? wow!
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2016, 12:07 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 1 2016, 12:00 AM)
was there any correction happened this year? why i can't recall any? whole year bullish? wow!
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dow first reached 18k in jan 2015.

yesterday, it was near 18.1k.

now it is 18.3k.



FLAT for last 2 years.

hard to make money in US stocks.

only brokers made.

even hedge funds are reeling from losses.


personally, i lost $ in us stocks in the last 2 years.

only in RM terms did i not lose! laugh.gif


zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2016, 12:07 AM)
dow first reached 18k in jan 2015.

yesterday, it was near 18.1k.

now it is 18.3k.
FLAT for last 2 years.

hard to make money in US stocks.

only brokers made.

even hedge funds are reeling from losses.
personally, i lost $ in us stocks in the last 2 years.

only in RM terms did i not lose! laugh.gif
*
Yes the breakout is not as strong as 2011-2014.

More of a stock pickers market.
yok70
post Oct 1 2016, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2016, 12:07 AM)
dow first reached 18k in jan 2015.

yesterday, it was near 18.1k.

now it is 18.3k.
FLAT for last 2 years.

hard to make money in US stocks.

only brokers made.

even hedge funds are reeling from losses.
personally, i lost $ in us stocks in the last 2 years.

only in RM terms did i not lose! laugh.gif
*
so basically it's a dull market.....that slowly moving upwards though....
it's just too bullish to trigger any meaningful corrections....wondering....
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 01:05 AM

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US oil rig count rises for 13th week in 14, up 7 rigs to 425: Baker Hughes
danmooncake
post Oct 1 2016, 01:16 AM

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Even rig count rises, the bulls aren't afraid anymore because of the OPEC pseudo agreement that basically like most agree - we got floor at the low 40s.

Now, the question is, is this enough to push Oil back over $50?

Personally, I hope it won't.. I kinda still like it here between $43-$48. This is where I made most money. biggrin.gif

Tonight, all options expired worthless and next week calls are good premium to sell too.

I like to see another pull back by next week.. maybe make it rolls back to $46 also acceptable. devil.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 1 2016, 01:17 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 01:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 1 2016, 01:16 AM)
Even rig count rises, the bulls aren't afraid anymore because of the OPEC pseudo agreement that basically like most agree - we got floor at the low 40s.

Now, the question is, is this enough to push Oil back over $50?

Personally, I hope it won't.. I kinda still like it here between $43-$48. This is where I made most money.  biggrin.gif

Tonight, all options expired worthless and next week calls are good premium to sell too.

I like to see another pull back by next week.. maybe make it rolls back to $46 also acceptable.  devil.gif
*
Yes looks like it will trade in the 40 range unless Dollar goes down or OPEC says something else.
AVFAN
post Oct 1 2016, 02:04 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 1 2016, 01:16 AM)
Even rig count rises, the bulls aren't afraid anymore because of the OPEC pseudo agreement that basically like most agree - we got floor at the low 40s.

Now, the question is, is this enough to push Oil back over $50?

Personally, I hope it won't.. I kinda still like it here between $43-$48. This is where I made most money.  biggrin.gif

Tonight, all options expired worthless and next week calls are good premium to sell too.

I like to see another pull back by next week.. maybe make it rolls back to $46 also acceptable.  devil.gif
*
it's a long time from now to nov opec meet.

unless some opec fella decides to jump the gun and say something extraordinary.

and no fomc meeting until early nov.

for now, it'll probably be just weekly api/eia data impact.

rig count been rising but no effect on stocks, it seems.

i think oil price volatility will go down dramatically for now.

barring some unforeseen big event happening.
danmooncake
post Oct 1 2016, 03:50 AM

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Well, as a trader, I am hoping their "agreement" will fall apart as it gets closer to the next meeting. devil.gif
More skeptism and disagreement will arise.

I think a lot of people the market just won't believe them anymore.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/david-pe...-103820300.html

I hope so too... let Oil continues to linger down here for another two or more quarters...
or until Yellen raise another 25bps to 50bps in rate. devil.gif
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 04:26 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2016, 02:04 AM)
it's a long time from now to nov opec meet.

unless some opec fella decides to jump the gun and say something extraordinary.

and no fomc meeting until early nov.

for now, it'll probably be just weekly api/eia data impact.

rig count been rising but no effect on stocks, it seems.

i think oil price volatility will go down dramatically for now.

barring some unforeseen big event happening.
*
Yeah you are right, looks like oil volatility is starting to head down.

Attached Image

danmooncake
post Oct 3 2016, 11:58 PM

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Darn...Oil vol down (^OVX), premium cheap. Can't make enough to sell 'em now.

Just long commons and buy protection and wait for another black swan.
danmooncake
post Oct 4 2016, 02:40 AM

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Wow.. reached $49 already.. just $1 more to go.

UWTI is about break above that resistance line.
mikehwy
post Oct 4 2016, 08:58 PM

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looks like an evening of uneventful activities.
.for crude and indices, with little clear directions.
long time no see crude > 50. buy or sell then ??
AVFAN
post Oct 5 2016, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Oct 4 2016, 08:58 PM)
looks like an evening of uneventful activities.
.for crude and indices, with little clear directions.
long time no see crude > 50. buy or sell then ??
*
the way i see it...

wti has gained 10% in 5 days.

just opec's "agree to agreement to cut in nov".

while iran and libya doing record output.

nothing else.

it's all oil bulls and short cover.

but must not underestimate that power.

so, i stay away, wait for it to touch 50..

may short then.

today-tmrw, api-eia data may swing sentiments for next few days.
danmooncake
post Oct 5 2016, 12:58 AM

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No volatility tonight... dry.gif
danmooncake
post Oct 5 2016, 11:07 PM

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Wow.. those inventory numbers should help crude to blast thru that $50 barrier now.

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 5 2016, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 5 2016, 11:07 PM)
Wow.. those inventory numbers should help crude to blast thru that $50 barrier now.
*
Yes, looking quite bullish important levels will be around 50.45,51.70.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 6 2016, 05:23 PM

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U.S. 10-Year Bond key levels are 1.72 and 1.75 on the upside and 1.68 on the downside ahead Initial Jobless Claims.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 6 2016, 05:24 PM

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