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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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AVFAN
post Apr 22 2020, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Apr 22 2020, 08:33 AM)
I cut loss on the opening bell and entered into BNO immediately. Still maintain the % exposure in oil, except in a different instrument. Guess it worked out well, USO tumbled like crazy towards the end.

BNO has a lower contango spread. Felt safer for the near term. Storage is more compared to WTI too.
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about USO, there has been changes even last night:

QUOTE
The latest change to USO’s terms came on Tuesday afternoon when the fund said it would invest in varying oil futures contracts. According to a regulatory filing, USO has already moved money into the oil contract for August delivery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/usos-benchm...ract-to-ex.html


brent, others... gotta watch the storage situation.
i remember the previous crisis, oil tankers were near full, lying at sea all over the globe for months.
if opec+ does not cut more production, it can get very ugly too.
AVFAN
post Apr 22 2020, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 22 2020, 01:12 PM)
Scary.luckily i cut loss yesterday for my 3175hk.

Today 3175hk drop 45% similar to USO.
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ya, better stay away... now that the shit has hit the fan! biggrin.gif

generally, i start to think those advocating sharp V recoveries in everything will be wrong.

like many others now predict, it will be more like a "very broad U".... the trough may last even a year.

recession, depression, disinflation, deflation... maybe all in one. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 22 2020, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 22 2020, 09:37 PM)
USO is a very scary play, it keeps changing assets policy. Imagine for those who play options to short it, this can be serious issue.  hmm.gif
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USO is not so scary.
I used to day trade UWTI (long) and DWTI (short) which are 3x uso. biggrin.gif
high pressure, quit long time ago... last 2 days wud have given me a heart attack.

uso has rolled over to aug futures.
which explains why it dropped 5% vs jun futures +26%
i wud think it means the contango is shrinking to a more normal level.
then again, who knows if the same thing will repeat just before may 19!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 22 2020, 10:01 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 23 2020, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 23 2020, 09:32 AM)
Yeah, those 3x leverage ETNs also have huge decay.

After they close UWTI/DWTI pair, they re-open the UWT/DWT pair.
Look at UWT now... DWT after the big dip under 5, with crude under $1, one would like it would zoom back to
40s.. but doesn't work that way. This rollover has collapsed these ETNs.

They're closing up that these two pair too.. now reborn as UWTIF/DWTIF OTC.... doh.gif
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one dies, another is born. biggrin.gif

demand is good, too many retail punters, i guess.
AVFAN
post Apr 23 2020, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE
Norway’s Equinor announced Thursday it will cut its quarterly dividend payment to shareholders by two-thirds, potentially paving the way for other oil majors to follow suit over the coming days.

The state-controlled oil company said its first-quarter cash pay-out to shareholders would be $0.09 per share, down from $0.27 in the final three months of 2019. That reflects a quarter-on-quarter reduction of 67%.

The move makes Western Europe’s biggest crude producer the first oil major to cut its dividend this earnings season.

“It seems there is a chance that other majors will follow suit,” Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via email on Thursday.

“Clearly, suspending share buybacks and cutting capex (capital expenditure) does not do the trick anymore. In these turbulent times cash is king and the battle for remaining financially sound intensifies,” Varga said.

France’s Total will announce whether they also plan to cut dividends on Friday, with Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell scheduled to announce earnings on April 30.

Stateside, Chevron and Exxon Mobil will report their latest quarterly figures on May 1.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/oil-price-n...nings-call.html


this may be useful for those vested in various foreign country bourses.

QUOTE
When $8 Trillion in Global Fiscal Stimulus Still Isn’t Enough
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...nd=premium-asia


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 23 2020, 05:32 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 23 2020, 08:35 PM

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jobless claims report...

expected 4.3 million, actual 4.4.

total apr 26 million.

futures... flat.
AVFAN
post Apr 23 2020, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Apr 23 2020, 11:15 PM)
Ya, I'm vested in various foreign bourses. But I  scratch my head at how it is useful for me  ... maybe coz I like to keep things simple ... like, don't fight the Fed tongue.gif

Cheer up, mang! I read that u sold in March, maybe it's time to reconsider that your thesis may have been wrong?
u can ignore what i posted since u r such a genius that u claim.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 23 2020, 11:54 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 24 2020, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(Moneylust @ Apr 24 2020, 01:07 AM)
Many of us might still be jobless 1 year from now. And without a cure or treatment, lockdowns may last a lot longer than many expect.
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some countries are preparing for some kind of lockdown restrictions for at least next 6 months.

australia pm has alluded to that; sg looks like another given the 300,000 foreign workers under quarantine.
AVFAN
post Apr 24 2020, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE
Researchers cut chloroquine study short over safety concerns, citing a ‘primary outcome’ of death
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus...y-concerns.html


AVFAN
post Apr 27 2020, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Apr 27 2020, 05:47 PM)
I don't think even for long term investors it is suitable for now at least. It is still trading at 6% premium and as long as the extreme contango issue exists it will be quite difficult to hold its value and not to mention the doezens of retail investors holding it currently.
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crude is a very risky thing to invest or even trade at this time.

if USO aug/sep is now at 2.18 and june crude futures at 12.50, the expectation is 2-5 months out, there is still no demand.

while the oil tankers are getting filled up in the next few weeks.


but dow/s&p keeps rising... sweat.gif

QUOTE
Global $6 Trillion Slump May Be Optimistic, Economists Warn

That a contraction of this magnitude is based on “optimistic assumptions about both the outbreak and the recovery” underscores the challenge facing policy makers trying to cushion the blow of the pandemic. Under such scenario, U.S. gross domestic product will shrink 6.4%, while euro area GDP is set to contract 8.1%. Japan will shrink 4%, while China will expand at the slowest pace on record.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...nd=premium-asia


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 27 2020, 10:47 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 27 2020, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(oOoproz @ Apr 27 2020, 10:26 PM)
Crude and Equities are probably inversely related?  hmm.gif
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i think more like decoupled, little relationship at this time.
AVFAN
post Apr 29 2020, 11:45 AM

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GDP report tonight.

if actual is close to expected, a rally will happen... futures already +200.

these days, small positive news = big rally.

QUOTE
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is poised to release its advanced estimate of first-quarter 2020 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus expectations compiled by Bloomberg as of Tuesday morning:

1Q GDP annualized, QoQ: -3.9% expected, +2.1% in 4Q 2019

1Q Personal consumption: -3.5% expected, +1.8% in 4Q 2019

1Q Core PCE QoQ: +1.7% expected, +1.3% in 4Q 2019

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-1q-2020-....tsrc=fin-notif

AVFAN
post Apr 30 2020, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(goldrush @ Apr 29 2020, 11:04 PM)
Reserve split... 8 to 1.... but still untung sikit la.. enough for 5 days expenses...
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about this USO reverse split 8:1...

before split it was about 2.18; last night closed 18.00 = 3% gain or so.

may be moving higher from now on... as opec+ cuts take effect, and china cities reporting traffic jams.


there is no major bad news now to bring negative sentiments; small positive news sparks a massive rally.

interesting times!




AVFAN
post Apr 30 2020, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Apr 30 2020, 02:19 PM)
Lots of bearishness surrounding USO.
I see eToro social all calling this a rubbish stock.
People calling potential investors to avoid at all cost.

When there's too many people on one side of the boat, the other thing will happen. We'll see.  laugh.gif
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yes, gotta be wary of that.

anyway, overall, all O&G looks screwed for a long long time, stay away... tongue.gif

QUOTE
Oil major Shell slashes dividend as first-quarter net profit tumbles 46%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/shell-q1-2020-results.html

Oil producers scramble to find ‘creative’ storage options after historic price crash
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/oil-and-cor...ge-options.html

AVFAN
post Apr 30 2020, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(goldrush @ Apr 30 2020, 05:08 PM)
I only do 1-2 days trade for this... aim small to cover 1 week expenses is enough..
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Yep, i do same. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 30 2020, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(Fenix98 @ Apr 30 2020, 10:34 PM)
Just some sarcasm on fed manipulation, wonder how long can they keep this up for.... At some point bullets do run out.....
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well, the man just said:

QUOTE
“We won’t run out of money,” Powell said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-c...-213347357.html


AVFAN
post May 4 2020, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(wjchay @ May 3 2020, 01:14 PM)
Hi,

I am going to use CGS CIMB, but first time buying US shares. I think the min USD25 brokerage is still quite high, but anyway, too lazy change platform and take new risks on foreign brokers or online platforms. I only have Maybank KE for sg investments, but the funds there are limited.

May I ask if you settle in MYR when you buy US shares? Does this give the best forex conversion?

How about when you sell, assuming that I want to keep USD in my trust account for future purchases, should I settle in USD?

I had posted this question in the iTrade thread but nobody replied so far.

Thanks in advance.
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for ICMB, by default, every time u buy or sell a foreign fx counter, it will be settled in RM.
to mitigate this, u need to sms/call/email yr remisier each time u do a transaction to keep in foreign currency.
a pain the ass, but that's their modus operandi.
check with yr remisier for details.

QUOTE(prophetjul @ May 3 2020, 07:31 PM)
What's CIMB brokerage fees like?
Do they charge for dividends admin?
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cimb brokerage rates are negotiable in any currency.
USD can be 0.3%, SGD can be 0.275%... even lower for some.
every dividend payout, processing fee = $10 or SGD10.

the charges are much higher than foreign based brokers becos local banks rely on their foreign associates in SG or HK for this.
BNM, FX laws do not allow direct local outfit operation in foreign currencies.
which explains why this sector can never grow much locally.
AVFAN
post May 4 2020, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ May 4 2020, 10:21 AM)
Meaning CIMB brokerage is negotiable from 0.275 to 0.4%?
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yes, but that's the case from a few years ago.

u gotta talk to them what's current.
AVFAN
post May 7 2020, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 7 2020, 09:19 AM)
Are we ready to SELL?  brows.gif
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r u seeing enuf signs now?! biggrin.gif

"sell in may and go away".

i m hibernating, wake me up when october arrives. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post May 7 2020, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 7 2020, 12:57 PM)
heh-heh... my internal bearish biased still exist. 
I don't think I seen enough blood on street yet.

Need another bear raid to shake 'em out.  brows.gif
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ya, let it all shake out.

for me, i go into hibernation, shielded from the noise. laugh.gif

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