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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 12:15 AM

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Algeria proposes 796K bpd OPEC cut at meeting-Bloomberg

Libyan oil minister Mossa Elkony said an agreement could come today

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 29 2016, 12:17 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 02:11 AM

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OPEC reaches deal to limit oil production, to be executed in Nov - RTRS

Update: It may be awhile before we find out the details because OPEC leaders are now taking a break but say they will continue afterwards.



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 29 2016, 02:57 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 02:58 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 29 2016, 02:56 AM)
at least some "deal" reached.

fair gain, 5%, 47.

volatility will probably persist for a while.
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The Reuters report suggested a 700K bpd cut but another one suggests it's not yet decided and in the 200K to 700K range.

Oil has pulled back to $46.84 on this report from $47.45 at the highs. In my experience, Reuters has the best OPEC reporters, by far. So I wouldn't bet against them.

The only thing that could undermine it are the details. Countries certainly have time to maneuver between now and the next meeting, which is scheduled for Nov 30.

Update: It's looking like they're just going to walk out with the 32.5 mbpd target and a plan to figure it out in November. What could go wrong?

QUOTE
Source: Oil Analyst


This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 29 2016, 03:00 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 03:13 AM

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**Update:**
QUOTE
Iran oil minister cited by Retuers

He says after two years OPEC has finally reached a consensus to manage the market.
Getting more news, hopefully can get some confirmation before market close.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Sep 29 2016, 03:15 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 29 2016, 03:36 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 29 2016, 03:14 AM)
i am skeptical. it may just be another "show" - to talk up the price.

i will not fall off my chair if nothing concrete but more talk develops in the coming days. biggrin.gif

having said that, it is probably not a good idea to short anymore until the picture is clearer.

it's past my usual bedtime... goodnight!
*
Yeah could be all for show, only time will tell.

Last Update
QUOTE
The WSJ on the deal

The OPEC meeting may continue for awhile yet but here's what we know so far.

    Reuters sources say output cap will be 32.5mbpd
    WSJ sources say 32.5 mbps to 33.0 mbpd
    August production was a record 33.2 mbps

The latest reports say they will wait until November to finalize a deal.

"A committee would be formed to study how to carry out the cuts and then report to the cartel at its next meeting on Nov. 30 in Vienna," the WSJ reports.

zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2016, 12:35 AM

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Dow Jones Transportation Average Index going for a breakout/ new downtrend ?

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zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2016, 12:54 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2016, 12:53 AM)
strange... dow suddenly -170?
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Deutsche Bank news came out.
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2016, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2016, 01:05 AM)
The problem is I have heard this story for two years already so I would expect some people have a plan since it did not hit them surprisingly but worse case scenario it is like 08 but for European banks.

Only time and price action of equities will tell.
zacknistelrooy
post Sep 30 2016, 03:47 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 30 2016, 03:43 AM)
If oil is above 50, more shale oil will be online.
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Yes that is what will probably happen.

Even now I heard there are a few shale plays that are making money.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2016, 12:07 AM)
dow first reached 18k in jan 2015.

yesterday, it was near 18.1k.

now it is 18.3k.
FLAT for last 2 years.

hard to make money in US stocks.

only brokers made.

even hedge funds are reeling from losses.
personally, i lost $ in us stocks in the last 2 years.

only in RM terms did i not lose! laugh.gif
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Yes the breakout is not as strong as 2011-2014.

More of a stock pickers market.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 01:05 AM

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US oil rig count rises for 13th week in 14, up 7 rigs to 425: Baker Hughes
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 01:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 1 2016, 01:16 AM)
Even rig count rises, the bulls aren't afraid anymore because of the OPEC pseudo agreement that basically like most agree - we got floor at the low 40s.

Now, the question is, is this enough to push Oil back over $50?

Personally, I hope it won't.. I kinda still like it here between $43-$48. This is where I made most money.  biggrin.gif

Tonight, all options expired worthless and next week calls are good premium to sell too.

I like to see another pull back by next week.. maybe make it rolls back to $46 also acceptable.  devil.gif
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Yes looks like it will trade in the 40 range unless Dollar goes down or OPEC says something else.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 1 2016, 04:26 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 1 2016, 02:04 AM)
it's a long time from now to nov opec meet.

unless some opec fella decides to jump the gun and say something extraordinary.

and no fomc meeting until early nov.

for now, it'll probably be just weekly api/eia data impact.

rig count been rising but no effect on stocks, it seems.

i think oil price volatility will go down dramatically for now.

barring some unforeseen big event happening.
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Yeah you are right, looks like oil volatility is starting to head down.

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zacknistelrooy
post Oct 5 2016, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 5 2016, 11:07 PM)
Wow.. those inventory numbers should help crude to blast thru that $50 barrier now.
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Yes, looking quite bullish important levels will be around 50.45,51.70.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 6 2016, 05:23 PM

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U.S. 10-Year Bond key levels are 1.72 and 1.75 on the upside and 1.68 on the downside ahead Initial Jobless Claims.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 6 2016, 05:24 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 6 2016, 08:40 PM

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US initial jobless 4 week average

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zacknistelrooy
post Oct 7 2016, 12:34 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 6 2016, 09:37 PM)
wti i n a frenzy, past 50.

time to short? tongue.gif
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With the Hurricane approaching the East Coast that might be tough.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 7 2016, 12:35 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 7 2016, 09:12 PM

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The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said. U.S. nonfarm payrolls was expected to show that 176,000 jobs were added in September, compared with the 151,000 increase in jobs a month earlier.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 8 2016, 01:13 AM

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Crude holds losses as US oil rig count rises by 3 for 14th increase in 15 weeks.

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 8 2016, 05:52 PM

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Trending upwards, oil production rise ?

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