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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Oct 10 2016, 12:15 AM

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Some weekend headlines ahead of a new trading week.
QUOTE
ECB's Constancio says market developments raise increased challenges for future asset purchases

ECB's Lane says Brexit has adverse implications for both the UK and EU economies

Fed's Fischer says FOMC's September rate decision was "a close call"

Iraq's oil minister call for increased domestic output in 2017

Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan weekend comments – will cut rates even further ‘if necessary’

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 10 2016, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 10 2016, 12:57 PM)
what will come next, between now and opec vienna meeting nov 30?
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Looks like it is starting

Oil prices turn higher after bullish Saudi comments on supply deal
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 10 2016, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 10 2016, 09:56 PM)
it was PUTIN's words.

let's see if the rally will break june high of 51.50.
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Yes, 51.60 to 51.70 important range.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 11 2016, 01:04 AM

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Iraq oil ministry announces Monday it has agreed to limit its oil production target to 4.75mbd - 5mbd. current output ~4.6mbd
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 11 2016, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 11 2016, 04:41 AM)
biggrin.gif  Sounds like they wanted to "raise" the limit.
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Yeah and the funny part is we still do not know who will cut.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 11 2016, 10:39 PM

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Total CEO Pouyanne says will lower oil production in countries where it operates if governments decide on quota. (Reuters)
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 11 2016, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2016, 11:05 PM)
What just happened?  How come dow drop so much all of a sudden?
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Kind of following the pattern of the last debate, went up first day and down second.

Also RMB set at weakest in six years.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 12 2016, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 11 2016, 11:48 PM)
it's a dicey situation now.

it's basically all talk, no action yet.

any cut will be only be agreed on nov 30.

and history says everyone will cheat. biggrin.gif

but... the financial markets have bought the talk, so it goes up.

can't fight that.
i think tmrw the paris based iea will release its oct report.

this report usually swing things quite a bit, so we'll see if the tune is "supply glut persist, " well in balance" or "demand will outstrip supply".

and there is api/eia data tmrw too.

will be a hectic day tmrw for oil.
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It is this one right ?

IEA releases Oil Market Report for October

QUOTE
OPEC sec-gen says freeze deal to last six months, then to be reviewed


This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 12 2016, 12:12 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 12 2016, 02:02 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 12 2016, 12:40 AM)
Ah yes, already out.

Not much reaction from markets, though.

I read it as demand not strong, supply glut still on but hope pins on opec cut.

So, will opec cut, cut big or cut small....?
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Probably small cut, as not many want to lose revenue.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 12 2016, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 12 2016, 12:22 PM)
Trump is good at playing poker.. so, he may still have a lot of hidden cards (or fire power) within the next 30 days till election. Don't count him out yet.  biggrin.gif

I actually wish he could win... then, the market will go into shock mode and drop 10%.
Then, we go in and buy buy buy.  After that, cooler heads will prevail, he like other presidents before him will succumb
political pressure.. and will revitalize it again with more QEs with the help from the Feds.   laugh.gif
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Trump may still have a chance as many may lie when they are polled.

The betting odds which is at 83% for a Hillary win may prove otherwise. The betting odds for brexit was a little closer so even if we factor in voters that are secretly going to vote for Trump it still is kind of difficult unless that odds reduces to the 60 % range.

There is even now chatter that Switzerland wants to favor locals and curb free movement.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 12 2016, 08:15 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 12 2016, 09:45 PM

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Reuters
QUOTE
Putin's up for freezing but not cutting oil output

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 13 2016, 11:10 PM

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Oil falls as US crude stockpiles rise by 4.9 million barrels, first jump in 6 weeks.

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 13 2016, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 13 2016, 11:27 PM)
that caused a 2% drop, then recover 1.5%.

will take 49 mil bbls to crash it. biggrin.gif

the bulls are still buying the opec talk, it would seem.
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Yeah no stopping oil, now even above the fall.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 13 2016, 11:34 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 14 2016, 08:36 PM

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Producer price index rose 0.3 percent in September vs estimate of 0.2 percent

Rosengren: Fed's balance sheet could be adjusted to steepen yield curve
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 14 2016, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(talexeh @ Oct 14 2016, 09:53 PM)
Anyone else holding either NVDA or AMD? BABA's announcement on collaboration with AMD just shot AMD up by >5%. Gonna see if AMD will break $7 again & find support there.
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Still holding NVDA, will sell if it breaks 64.

AMD may need to clear 7.15 or it may stall here.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 14 2016, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 14 2016, 11:23 PM)
dow is up 1xx, but wti retreated and barely holding above 50.
what's coming?!
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European close was at 11.30 so not surprised that they took profits after being up big plus Yellen speech is in the afternoon.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 17 2016, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE
Iran talking about producing 5 million barrels per day
Iran's oil minister was reportedly talking about producing 5 million barrels per day today


Do not know how they are going to do it since they just started ramping production but it is still talk.
zacknistelrooy
post Oct 18 2016, 12:21 AM

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Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer in New York

QUOTE
No evidence of heightened risks to financial stability at the moment
'Reach for yield' threatens financial stability
Demographics and productivity among multiple factors holding down neutral interest rate
Low rates make economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks that could lead to recession
No current sign of heightened threat of financial stability from low interest rates

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 18 2016, 02:59 AM

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US crude oil futures settle at $49.94 per barrel

Attached Image

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 20 2016, 06:54 PM

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QUOTE
ECB preview: Is the euro gearing up for an ECB taper tantrum?


Decision in 50 and press conference in 90 minutes.

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