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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Apr 27 2022, 12:01 PM)
the entity (trading company?) that setup the ETF create ETF shares for it to be traded in the exchange. market makers will use arbitrage to ensure that the ETF price will more or less be equal to the basket of shares. liquidity is based on how many buyers/sellers willing to trade the ETFs

see how much of my comments is accurate/wrong
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arbitrage is buy low from exchange a... sell high at exchange b... no?

etf price is based on market forces and will generally track its underlying index... illiquid etf will have some slippage...

whole idea of index fund is to match the index composition
dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Apr 27 2022, 01:30 PM)
any "free lunch" trades counts as arbitrage.

so etf arbitrage exists https://www.investopedia.com/articles/inves...trage-works.asp
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i was replying to your "market makers will use arbitrage to ensure that the ETF price will more or less be equal to the basket of shares."

I don't think so...

btw... I've done arbi exchange a to exchange b... also premium/discount vs underlying...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Apr 27 2022, 01:51 PM
dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Apr 27 2022, 01:53 PM)
in what sense? not enough market makers so prices diverge or?

i'm lucky to play an options market that was illiquid (but the underlying futures is ok enough), manage to earn some dinner doing spread between futures and options
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during big moves, sometimes the exchanges' price matching got slippages... so market buy here... market sell there... make 5-6k a night... next day zombie to work... lol

but is not "free lunch"... you risk price gap closes and price dumping... kena before also... lol

dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 27 2022, 02:35 PM)
MM can arbitrage a few ways.

One way is using the ETF primary market, as all ETFs are convertible to underlying shares of the index, and vice-versa.
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Yes... trading the spread... the premium or discount vs the underlying... wink.gif

dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Apr 27 2022, 03:42 PM)
The number seems to tally. I would appreciate if anyone can explain the relationship between currency strength and ETF tracking divergence. Trying to understand but this is not my forte.
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Same stock in USD = same stock in GBP * USD/GBP rate

there is no tracking divergence... it's a charting error... two different units on the same scale

This post has been edited by dwRK: Apr 27 2022, 05:22 PM
dwRK
post Apr 27 2022, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Apr 27 2022, 06:09 PM)
i see... the liquidity i was concerned about is secondary market liquidity. then yeah, your post is correct if referring to primary market liquidity
https://www.etf.com/etf-education-center/et...dity?nopaging=1
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But he was replying to buying etf on the secondary market wink.gif

Carl Sagan's quote comes to mind... to make apple pie from scratch, first you create the universe... lol

dwRK
post Apr 28 2022, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Apr 27 2022, 10:35 PM)
Just some of my observation. Might be something or maybe it is just pure nonsense (aka correlation =/= causation). Do appreciate any insights and knowledge.

Just as an example, from 29 March to current time, the S&P500 index has dropped by around 9.1%. CSP1 has only dropped by around 4.5% during the same period. At the same time, USD has strengthened against GBP by around 4.3%. CSPX which is denominated in USD is similar to S&P500 gains/losses. So, is currency value one of the main reasons for the difference in ups and downs magnitude of both charts?

yes

If that is the case:
1. A weaker GBP vs USD will cause GBP denominated ETF to rise faster and drop slower compared to S&P500 index.
2. A stronger GBP vs USD will cause GBP denominated ETF to rise slower and drop faster compared to S&P500 index.
3. Therefore, in the current situation where GBP is weakening against the USD, I shouldn't be expecting CSP1 value to drop at the same magnitude as S&P500 or CSPX.

yes x3

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additional points... accumulating vs index/distributing... lse closes at ~12am vs nyse at ~4am vs forex at ~5am... will have discrepancies when looking at it non real time

dwRK
post Apr 28 2022, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(RayleighH @ Apr 27 2022, 10:35 PM)
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come i plot "properly" for you... wink.gif

orange line is cspx(usd)... blue line is csp1(gbp) converted to usd + $2 offset... i added offset so it can be seen otherwise it is mostly hidden under the orange line... they track almost perfectly...

user posted image
dwRK
post Apr 28 2022, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 28 2022, 09:52 AM)
Earnings is still impressive. What now with the price correction? What's not to like?
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only -25% from peak... looking for > -40%... laugh.gif

dwRK
post Apr 28 2022, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 28 2022, 12:26 PM)
Becarefull.

Baba drop 71.5% from peak. Will you enter?  sweat.gif
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i will start ladder in some tech sector... wanna see -40 to -90% drop from peak... laugh.gif

this year got feds/inflation, putin, mid terms... see how lah...

dwRK
post Apr 28 2022, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 28 2022, 10:25 PM)
dwRK Just curious, are you a die-hard fan of TSLA?
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got pissed off with tsla... so didn't buy... lol

long story is... around 2013-14, ppl was still heavily shorting tsla and they continue to lose money... but i thought price was quite stable at $200-230... was into battery tech and their industrial battery division is doing quite well... i kiv it... then i watch i think their 3Q results when they turn profitable but didn't jump on it... so just watch the big crazy rise, stock splits, worldwide fomo and all the fanbois nowadays singing praises... lol

fan of their engineering... their motor is amazing...also spacex... but i'd probably buy btc and eth before i buy tsla so i don't get reminded why i so stupid... hahaha

dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 08:22 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 29 2022, 12:51 AM)

Well lets just say the risk/reward for shorting tesla seemed to look pretty good now.
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how low you think will go?
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 08:49 AM

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buy buy buy...

laugh.gif
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 29 2022, 01:02 PM)
Expecting bounce back?

"Elon Musk Offloads $4 Billion of Tesla Shares, Pledges No More Sales"

Yahoo
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as you know is earnings season... very volatile period... after this continue dumping probably...

insiders selling outsiders buying... good luck to you all... laugh.gif
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 01:54 PM

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TOS... get ready to load usd... biggrin.gif
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 29 2022, 02:10 PM)
You mean time to sell MYR or SGD? USD appreciates with different magnitude against multiple currencies though. No idea which currency pair you are referring to.
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Sell myr... buy usd, sgd also can... dunno what you wanna buy...

i finished buying myr for now... lol
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 29 2022, 02:35 PM)
It is happening before in dec last yrs. When Elon sell the share to pay tax.

People are emotion and sentiment. Once the Twitter dust settles down, the thing back to normal.

After all it's nothing to do with the company and its financial.

For us, it is buying time.
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Sell in May... go away... biggrin.gif
dwRK
post Apr 29 2022, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 29 2022, 02:22 PM)
US market still pretty resilient. Need to wait for the magic 36% 2 s.d. sell down... So, nothing to buy

I wanna buy Euro actually. Standby for my LVMH and Air Liquide purchase. EUR/SGD and USD keep getting lower, so I keep reducing my buy limit price on IB laugh.gif
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selective counters ok... Russell 2000 not looking good...
dwRK
post Apr 30 2022, 09:01 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 30 2022, 04:00 AM)
Everything is deep red this week... even AAPL can't save the tech anymore.  doh.gif

I think we'll going to visit another level down next week when Fed meets.
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as we know... us 'market' is artificially propped up by a few mega cap...

with commodity shortages driving up prices and inflation, the best feds can do imho is prevent a big recession this year... feds raising rates not gonna fix the problem

dwRK
post Apr 30 2022, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 30 2022, 07:56 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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I'd buy amzn over goog n tsla biggrin.gif

wait for bottom first...

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