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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Ramjade
post Feb 28 2020, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 28 2020, 10:11 PM)
is there anything that is green now?

why even US short term treasury ETF is also red?
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You do not need green. You need red now actually.
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 2 2020, 11:48 PM)
Fed pumping hard  rclxms.gif
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Jim Cremmer is right. Unless the fed can find develop a vaccine or find a way to fight the virus, it's going to be useless. devil.gif
People addicted to easy money so whistling.gif whistling.gif
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 3 2020, 12:07 AM)
money not yet in but already green! sad.gif
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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 3 2020, 12:20 AM)
Same here sad.gif I put in exactly. Now need to top up more  cry.gif
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Money can't solve virus issue. Temporarily fix. As virus spreads more people stay at home. Already 90 in few days.
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 07:11 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 3 2020, 02:44 AM)
Exxon?? they said, oversold.
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Too late. Market already up 1008 points.
Buy XOM and you have dividend tax.
Buy shell (rdsb) and BP plc and you gave no dividend tax.
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 3 2020, 10:18 AM)
For me, oil & gas is dying.
XLE is not diversified enough for me too with 22% in Exxon Mobil alone.
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It won't die. It just transition. That's why the oil and gas companies have hand in electric vehicle charging, renewable energies.

Don't forget no renewable energy can heat up house in winter completely.
Poor countries like south east Asia, India, Africa still relay on oil.
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 11:31 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Mar 3 2020, 08:57 PM)
Good to see you are back

Oil for now at least seems to be taking a taking a cue form the equity markets.

Was on track for a proper bounce till equities turned lower.

I personally took a chance on Kinder Morgan as I feel it has a bit more margin of safety with the upside caped but have stop-loss order in place in case it turns again.
Yes oil may not die and demand is suppose to grow but finding incremental buyers is the problem as institutional buyers are focused on ESG and whether that is a fad is a story for another day

Oil has only worked as a trade for the past two years

That is the reason NextEra Energy which is a utility that is involved in renewable trades at 33 P/E while ExxonMobil trades at 17 P/E.

Are both irrational?
Probably but in the end of the day we have to setup our portfolio for the best outcome based on our own objectives and price rarely lies in the long run
Don't forget it is election year and markets are choppy unless we are sure the incumbent wins and COVID-19 has added uncertainly to that and disrupted what would probably been a sure win
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If trump mess up the virus stuff he's going to pay big time.

QUOTE(oOoproz @ Mar 3 2020, 11:23 PM)
50 pts rate cut from FED, i never expect this much lol, let's see how it goes tonight, bond yield is going low again
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Feds to the rescue again.sad.gif

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 3 2020, 11:31 PM
Ramjade
post Mar 3 2020, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 3 2020, 11:39 PM)
Fed cavalry has arrived!  50 bps cut. Fed Fund rate is now 1%. Not much room before it hits zero and negative rates.

See gold prices...
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All because of trump devil.gif Economy was good and he ask feds to cut.
Ramjade
post Mar 4 2020, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 3 2020, 11:58 PM)
when? timeline please...
already up also you bought?? sad.gif
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No one knows. Hence need to prepare. Do you know when you will get sick or get into an accident? No.
But you cna prepare right?
Same concept.
Ramjade
post Mar 5 2020, 07:18 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Mar 5 2020, 06:21 AM)
turned to stew by Biden  bangwall.gif
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The only person who stands a chance is bernie sanders.
Hopefully he wins.
Ramjade
post Mar 7 2020, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 7 2020, 01:53 PM)
buy first and store, use later?  biggrin.gif
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That's what happen in 2015. Too much oil. Saudi tried to fight shale oil and lost. Price was very low. Oil was abundance. China buy like crazy and store them on oil tankers at sea cause no more storage on land.
Ramjade
post Mar 7 2020, 06:54 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 7 2020, 02:17 PM)
Oh .... and how did it end? China made a loss?
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Not sure china made a loss or not. All I know is saudi is the one making huge losses. Why do you think they IPOing Aramco? Their kingdom was in pretty bad shape because of their decision to try to fight US shale.



Ramjade
post Mar 9 2020, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Mar 9 2020, 12:33 AM)
With Russia inflicting max damage to the US economy, we can expect blood bath this week.
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I wonder if a 20% drop is possible. hmm.gif hmm.gif
Ramjade
post Mar 9 2020, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Mar 9 2020, 09:53 AM)
Accumulative 20% drop from the previous high is very possible, but 20% single day drop not so much...but we'll see as can't tell now given the higher volatilities in the market now
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What I meant is 20% drop from yesterday price over say 1 month period possible?
Ramjade
post Mar 10 2020, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 10 2020, 10:45 PM)
Beware of what you wish, you may get more than what you wish.
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I have waited a long time for this. Give me another 30% also no problem
Ramjade
post Mar 12 2020, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 12 2020, 01:04 AM)
already dropped 50%, still overvalued? then I guess have to wait until $150 ....
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Look at long term. 5 years data ought to tell you if it's cheap or expensive
Ramjade
post Mar 13 2020, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 13 2020, 06:25 PM)
a cat has 9 lives.

can expect 7 more bounces since 1 already happened! biggrin.gif
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Eh counting tonight is 2 more bounce. Correct?
Ramjade
post Mar 15 2020, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 15 2020, 09:29 AM)
Are we expecting the Fed to cut rates this week?

I want to change some money to SGD but if Fed cuts the rates, then SGD will also weaken, right? So better wait a bit?
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Just change. No need to look at exchange rate. Overtime whatever investment you do will cover back the minimal savings you gain from exchange rate.

Last week I broke out my amanah saham and change regardless of exchange rate. Some things too cheap to ignore.

Normal times yeah look at exchange rate. I agreed.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 15 2020, 09:51 AM
Ramjade
post Mar 15 2020, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 15 2020, 09:54 AM)
hahaha... same here. I'm about to withdraw money from amanah saham... still quite reluctant though.

Yes, but if I can get a better rate, .... 
I need to save every penny for investment. After all, we are not in a rush since this crisis will drag for a least a few months.
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I already got. Last Friday. Double what amanah saham can give me. Will add some more.

Later will buy Starbucks, mcd, Brookfield and family if they are priced cheaply.
Ramjade
post Mar 15 2020, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Mar 15 2020, 01:28 PM)
Consumer stocks? Im looking at brkb, visa and googl/amazon (have to choose one between the two to buy)

Of course, OXY seems good too.
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OXY as in the O&G company? AAlready cut dividends liao. Buy only BP/shell. nothing else. Tax free both of them.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 15 2020, 06:35 PM
Ramjade
post Mar 15 2020, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Mar 15 2020, 06:26 PM)
Are you talking about Brookfield (alternative asset management company)?

If that is the case any reason why as most of their stocks are structured as partnership which means certain fund can't hold them.

KKR and Carlyle Group had the same problem before they switched to  C-corp and finally realized their true value.

I definitely agree Brookfield has really good assets as I used to own them but due to their structure they lagged their true value
Gold generally goes down in a crisis ( same thing happen in 08 before it went to an all time high)

Gold is great for insolvency cycle but not illiquidity cycle

Also a lot of central banks added gold for the past two years so I would not be surprised if they are selling some
Also the risk parity trade got hid badly this week:

user posted image
Dalio caught flat-footed with big losses at Bridgewater fund

Interesting to see even Ray Dalio underestimate the current downturn
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Yes the Brookfield family and the parent. I am not a fund manager so I don't care about their structure.

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