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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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danmooncake
post Aug 15 2019, 04:31 AM

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The damage so far... -800 pts or -3% for the Dow/Sp500 and Nasdaq.

Bulls are looking for some positive tweets from Trump. So far, he continues to bash Fed. shakehead.gif

danmooncake
post Aug 16 2019, 04:24 AM

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QUOTE(oOoproz @ Aug 15 2019, 02:07 PM)
Just like Japan.. but they didn't have negative mortgage.

Wow. it is crazy indeed. Money got so cheap, one would think inflation will zoom back in but these developed countries
currency got stronger because of fear of recession and their govt backstopping it, not giving in recession to flush out the bad stuff,
and they keep issuing Bonds/IOUs to be paid by in the future.






danmooncake
post Aug 16 2019, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 16 2019, 09:26 AM)
question is, to flush out bad stuff in which industry? i tried to find bubbles in an industry, but couldn't find yet....well, in HK, there is a quite obvious one, the housing industry (a drop of 50% sounded reasonable, although that's quite unlikely to happen in short term), highly overpriced products.

But in US, can you find any?

*
Maybe, it depends. Unfortunately, housing (real estate) is NOT uniform but one region differ from the others. West coast.. major cities like SanJose, SanFran, SanMateo - huge bubble.. ridiculously expensive. High end reits will likely run into trouble first if we have another recession. But in the Midwest/Southern states...they're cheap (even cheaper than Malaysia)!

The tech industry is quite lofty now but as earnings continue to grow bigger, valuation and PE expansion just gets bigger.
For. Take a look at this crazy TSLA. Never make money.. so high. Same thing as UBER/LYFT
This BYND ( gmo vege meat, is this food tech? doh.gif ), all overvalue but yet major funds keep pumping it.

Also, maybe need to go look at those high PE China-based stocks like JD, LK, DOYU, HUYA to short ....
imo, all lofty valuation.

If we have recession, market drop 30%-40%, all those high valuation stocks will drop 80%-90%. brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 16 2019, 12:13 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 17 2019, 05:12 AM

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One more thing..

Usually something that cause a recession, and the following recession, it is unlikely the same cause again.

So, if the prior recession is caused by subprime housing/real estate in 07-09, it is unlikely to be the same thing again.

(US market)
1973-1975 oil crisis
1980-1982 inflation
1990-1991 savings and loan
2000-2001 tech bubble
2008-2009 subprime real estate

In '97-98 Asian crisis didn't even cause any issue on US economy during those year, infact it was still growing healthy,
because everything was on sale in Asia, US bought so much assets and at the same time, tech industry was growing,
that in itself formed the bubble in later years.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 17 2019, 05:17 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 18 2019, 01:20 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 17 2019, 07:09 AM)
Actually, what i mean was, the industries that may caused recession, not about valuation of public listed companies.
Tesla, even if it bankrupt, it will not cause any major damage to the US economy. The same goes to Beyond Meat and Uber etc.
Stocks overvalued can only caused a little effect on investors who invested in them, unless it's a broad base overvaluation in entire US market, which may cause financial crisis.

You mention JD. I think it's not too overpriced, just that the market has priced in its current/forward earnings instead of trailing earnings.
For FY19, consider GAAP EPS (in USD), Q1 is 0.74 and Q2 is 0.05, that goes 1.58 full year (although most people think 2H should be even stronger due to holiday season). This gives a PE of 19x at $30 share price. Now see Non-GAAP EPS. Q1 is 0.33 and Q2 is also 0.33, that goes 1.32 full year. This gives PE of 22.7x. I'd say, not so expensive, consider it's likely to maintain double digits earning growth in the next few years. For JD, the kind of company which still at high growth/shaping stage, the earnings and expenses can be very volatile. I like to simply look at its market cap after a healthy balance sheet (JD has a healthy balance sheet and cash flow). JD's market cap is only 10% of Alibaba, and 5% of Amazon. When i look at how big JD is, and how small its market cap is, i say it's a bargain.

Thanks for the info on US housing market, surprise to know that some regions has cheaper than Malaysia house! However, nowadays, Malaysia housing price is overvalued for sure. As for KL, i guess, maybe a 25% overpriced. But in HK and even China, house in city center is ridiculously high!
*
Sorry.. I am very skeptical about JD balance sheet. Not to be trusted at all. E'nogh said. whistling.gif

Which industry that could cause recession? Sorry.. I don't think there is one could do it alone because US economy is so vast and
diversify now. Recession sometimes is not about the industry.. more like sentiments. US is a consumption based
economy. If their sentiments are low, than less consumption. If things are expensive, they'll stop buying.
They're pretty price sensitive and will seek out for better price and alternatives. That's if this tariff war persist on and
if it hits their pocket books, they will cut back and any major cut back in consumer sentiments, consumption will decrease,
major retailers from all sectors will suffer - housing, retails, services, transports, banks, cascade effect... everything, then jobs.

However, there is one area (not industry) of the US economy that could cause the next financial crisis..but I am not sure how to play it yet.
Still looking at the data at the moment. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 18 2019, 01:22 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 18 2019, 01:13 PM

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I was talking to a friend about housing bubble in certain cities, and it's been quite unaffordable to many people due to
the disparity in household income and what not. One city that came to mind in North America is Vancouver, BC.

Over the last 10 years, since the financial crisis, Vancouver been the target of hot money (QE) coming in, mostly from
China. They've pouring billions into the city real estate market, and homes that were merely 200K~300K CND now inflated 2M-3M CND.

One can't find a decent detach home in Vancouver for under 1 mln (canadian dollars).. even small 1-2 bed apartments now cost around 600k-800k

Vancouver per household avg income is around 70k-80K/annual, which makes it around 14x multiple for avg 1 mln home.
It's ridiculous. Maybe the REITs in Canada is ripe for shorts to pick.

Then again, in Asia, we got Hong Kong tops at 20-22x household income.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 18 2019, 01:16 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 19 2019, 10:54 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 19 2019, 07:38 AM)
Thanks for sharing  rclxms.gif

In Malaysia, I think middle class household income in big city could be around 6000-12000. Affordable house price is around 500K. Lets take 10K as income (it's 120K annual). That's 4.16x, pretty decent! Surprisingly! So there will still be huge leg up potential then, if economy able to improve long term. You are making USD income, you must have bought dozens of house in Malaysia.  laugh.gif
*
The funny thing about affordability in Malaysia - there is big gap between the T20 and M40 household income.
That RM500K is for the T20 groups and majority of them already have a home. The M40 group needing more homes but
they can only afford RM300k-400k and these are getting more difficult to come by and they're pretty bad in quality.
The M40 income group who desires the RM500K types, the affordability is around 10x~12x their annual income.

Until the M40 income can move up, little value in investing in property above that price. Furthermore, bank rates have to come down more so that they can borrow but a lot of the M40 (and T20 too) are heavily in debt.

The wave of foreign buyers coming to buy has slowed down dramatically with new govt rules
and made it difficult to speculate on prices.

For me buying property to invest in Malaysia - nope. To live - yes. Investing property in Malaysia also
too long of a cycle for decent returns. For better return, it has to generate cash flow - eg. rental income
plus turnover cost and dealing with tenants and mgmt company - another headache. shakehead.gif

For the last 10 years, SP500 returns better than property. Stocks still rule here and more liquidity. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 19 2019, 11:50 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 20 2019, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 20 2019, 05:55 PM)
Most invested in property because of easy and cheap leverage.
*
Easy and cheap leverage? hmm.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 21 2019, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(Irresistible @ Aug 21 2019, 12:59 AM)
Anyone can recommend an online US stock exchange tht is [i]cheap for [/i]newbee and not big capital player?
May not bw frequently Trade.

Thanks
*
The really cheapy (commission-free) for US stocks/etf/options available now is Robinhood (mobile platform).
But, I don't know how non-US resident can join.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 21 2019, 10:52 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 23 2019, 01:06 AM

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The market is addicted to the low rates.. like drugs.

The US economy isn't sick, little signs of recession, but the banks/hedge funds and even this crazy US President is
crying out for more 'low rates' for the market. Giving it antibiotic when it isn't sick, will end up badly. shakehead.gif


danmooncake
post Aug 24 2019, 02:13 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 23 2019, 11:13 PM)
do you think fed will raise rate?
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No...fed won't raise rate but market expects Fed to LOWER rate but Powell tonight didn't indicate anything short of "we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion". Therefore, no 100% commitment that there will more lower rate but depending on data later.
I think he wants to save his ammo for real recession later.

Trump is very angry..berates Powell immediately. China announced more tariff on US products in retaliation for Sept 1st.
Market sold off.

We're going down for sure. Let see if the 200 day will hold as support here. Bears haven't really mount full scale attack yet.

Update after market, DT added:
250 bln to 30% (Oct 1)
300 bln to 15% (Sept 1)



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 24 2019, 06:06 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 24 2019, 11:15 PM

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One bright side of Malaysia housing in JB now since the Hong Kong protests/crisis.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/s...malaysian-homes

I'm guessing averaging RM1.5mln-RM2mln homes being sold to Hong Kongers..

The funny thing is.. the HongKong people may still find themselves being neighbor next to Mainland China folks
who also bought Forest City apartments earlier on.





danmooncake
post Aug 27 2019, 03:30 AM

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Market bounced up tonight 'coz DT said China called and wants to deal.
Reporter checking with China, they don't know what he's talking about. biggrin.gif

Same old tricks used by DT and cronies... pump and dump.

Likely another dead cat bounce, then ripe for shorting again. brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 27 2019, 03:31 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 28 2019, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 27 2019, 09:07 PM)
is there any president in any country in the world with face skin as thick as DT? Just wondering  biggrin.gif
*
Perhaps only countries with dictator like N.Korea, SaudiArab, Russia, China, etc..

DT is most likely the only odd-ball like POTUS that is NOT a politician but showman only like the
apprentice show. Unlike previous conservative presidents, his behavior is unpredictable with flips flops
all the the time. He always fired the people who doesn't kowtow to him.. that's why he likes dictator like KimJongUn and Putin.

Eventho he aligns himself to the right, he perhaps has no regards for anybody because in the end, it's about himself only.

During the 2016 campaign, the mass majority conservatives states (midwestern) supported him because they don't like Hillary. I think the support will wear out soon because of the suffering the farmers and the laborers (truckers, miners, etc) are suffering because of the trade war.

He could be a one term Republican president (just like HW. Bush) if US economy tanks and goes into recession.

One thing about him that is different from other US president, he watches the stock market.

The question is he a BULL or BEAR? hmm.gif
If he loses.. will he scorch earth? sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 28 2019, 12:37 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 28 2019, 12:28 PM

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I think DT initially wants to scare China and give all sorts of bluff and also want to scare the market,
if people didn't support him, Dow/SP500/Nasdaq will go down 20% or more.

He's driving this train going very fast downhill.. the problem is.. brakes may not work anymore. sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 28 2019, 11:26 PM

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DT scolded Fed continuously for not bringing down rates. He keeps comparing US Fed with other Euro countries central banks
and Japan that currently at negative rates. doh.gif

Yesterday, the former Fed official (Dudley) said Fed should ignore Trump because his re-election (trade war tactics) is a threat to US
economy and Fed independence. Fed should focus on mandate - employment and inflation, and save ammo for recession later. rclxms.gif


danmooncake
post Aug 29 2019, 11:05 PM

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Hey guys, I just opened a RobinHood account to test out how their mobile app and commission free trading works.
Going a transfer some funds in there.

They said they also give away free stock.. dunno which one yet.


danmooncake
post Aug 30 2019, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 29 2019, 11:32 PM)
Not possible to open as Malaysian right?
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Possible. Any Malaysian who can obtain a US SocialSecurityNumber, no problem.

danmooncake
post Aug 31 2019, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Aug 30 2019, 09:48 PM)
Market is quite  bullish.. Hopefully, Trump won't spoil this.  Next week hopefully his enemy is just the Hurricane.
*
Don't say enemy... he might actually <ahem, cough> nuke it.. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Sep 4 2019, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 2 2019, 02:51 PM)
China is likely to keep some bullets for election campaign period.
*
Tonight market bounced, following HK news.
I don't see any other catalyst until next 2~3 weeks, Fed supposedly lower another 25bps by mid or end of Sept.

DT yet to confirm a definite date for meeting with China to discuss trade. Suppose to happen..

Could be another dead cat bounce. hmm.gif



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