That's is also why DT wants the Fed to backstop the market with the rate cut so that he can create havoc
and not tank the stock market, then he claims he wins too with no consequences.

The latest US PMI came out better than expected, so it's actually less ammo for the Fed to even lower
rate by end of the month. I really hope they don't lower it. Market will go down regardless. Valuation still too high here.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 19 2019, 01:24 AM

I assume when you state bargain, it also means value.
Value/Bargain and Growth - most of the time they don't go hand in hand.
Growth stock usually more expensive and have relatively high PE.
Value/Bargain stock have low/mid PE but they don't have much growth anymore, hence willing to pay
dividends.

It's kinda difficult to find which one can straight out do reinvest all their earnings that all time.
That decision to reinvest or pay dividends (raise/suspend) usually come out after their
quarterly earnings or their shareholders/board meeting depending on the company performance. Usually high growth companies like AMZN, NFLX, FB, etc they don't pay any dividends, but you can say they reinvest their earnings most of the time because of need to grow.

But, when they reinvest their earnings (like BRKB), they don't always allocate ALL the earned capital back
into the investment. There's always some hold back and you may or may not like some of the areas they reinvest back into.

A bear raid started tonight.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 26 2019, 04:14 AM

AAPL beats Q3 earnings, shares up 4%.

Revenue: 53.8b (actual) vs 53.39b (estimate)
EPS: 2.18/shr (actual) vs 2.10/shr (estimate)

iPhones sales (meets expectation): 23b (down 12% from last year quarter)
Services: 11.5b (up 13% from last year quarter), now approx 22% of revenue mix.

iPhones replacement cycle is getting longer and longer.

Apple getting into wearable for healthcare for more revenue and
also their next refresh cycle for 5G.

Looks like it wants to see 230 again soon and it may not care about China-trade issue at the moment.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 1 2019, 12:50 AM

The IWM etf tracking it looks like it wants to break out too.. let see what happens later.
Maybe Fed decision will fuel it (or dampen if they sell into the news).

There you got, as expected Fed cuts 25bps.
Back to QE again.

But... SELL da news first.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 1 2019, 06:44 AM

Over time, the iPhone sales going to plateau or maybe drop off. Those who needs a phone,
already got one and refresh cycle getting longer. They got to continue to find ways to earn more with other means.
Maybe more services, more wearable and who knows.. maybe even future implants (this could be scary ).
Then, it will be a new cycle of growth.

Yeah, the buybacks are holding up the stock price too.

Trump turns into bear attack tonight.. addl 10% tariff on 300bln of stuff.

Now we know why he wasn't happy with just that 25bps Fed cut. He got plans after all..

I bet his friends and his cronies already making money this way.

Cronies and Friends: Don, what' do you think of China.
DT: I like tariffs. It will help us to win trade deals.
Cronies: Sell Sell Sell

The following week:
Cronies and Friends: Don, what' do you think of China again.
DT: I like Xi JinPing, he's my good friend.
Cronies: Buy Buy Buy

Sell Sell Sell again...

Dow -600pts..

The EMW (MSCI Malaysia index) is 52 weeks low. Wow.. cheap sale again.
I think KLCI is bound to revisit the 15xx again soon.

Emerging market got hit badly, especially China. Chinese govt going to buy its own shares cheaply.

My fingers itching to pull the trigger and buy this but my brain is telling me to wait.
Almost -3% for Dow and SPY, Nasdaq already there.. for today.

Dunno yet.. the volume seems ok but not enough to overtake yesterday high.
Let see how it goes tomorrow. Usually overnight, got news leak, futures will lead the way.
If dip again during open but less than the lows of yesterday, I think it can be a buy-this-dip scenario.

Buying dips...tonight. Let's go.

Well, current quarter tells us they've a huge missed on EPS. DIS spent a lot of money acquiring Fox and preparing for its new streaming service (Disney+)

Projected to lose 45c shr for FY2021. Streaming loses could be up to 900mln because of upfront spending and trying to gain market share

Success: Marvel series
Flop: Dark Phoenix

Nov 12 - to launch that streaming service @ 12.99 bundle same cost as Netflix (for US subscribers).
Yes, they include Hulu & Disney+ but it will be cannibalizing the other TV service (declining cable/satellite subscribers, losing >20mln subs) they already had. So, they're just breaking even here.

Fwd earnings: 22x, not sure about future growth at this time.

IMO, it's expensive at current price 135.

I would wait till it dips further to 120-125.

Working out nicely...let see how far it can bounce. It filled that broke down gap. Maybe a little more before the weekend. Will trail to make sure protect profits.

Market breaking down again...

Didn't see his tweet tonight but rumor came out that he instructed his trade office to "delay that 10% tariff" and they immediately,
published this statement:

Certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent.

Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

USTR intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariff.

The USTR will publish in the Federal Register as soon as possible additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement.

Market rallies based on this news.

I think Trump wants Americans to shop early and buy their stuff before holidays especially the BlackFriday sale in November. After that, everything goes up by December. Of course, this will benefit the cronies friends who owns the big corporations.

Cronies: Don, you serious about addl 10% by Sept.. year end shopping coming, and we need the sale you know.
DT: Well... maybe I can delay a bit.. December the latest. I must show my poker face to China.
Cronies: ok great.. <hurried off and called broker> BUY BUY BUY.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 14 2019, 01:24 AM

Oh my..10 yr treasury yield dips to 1.6%.
Yup, flashing the big R word here.

Bears are prowling with more re-enforcement.

Dunno yet.. let's watch and see.

SP500 still got that support area here: 2825-2830, let see if the bears have enough power to push down below it.
2795 is the 200dma (in June, it dives below it and rallies off that 200ma line)

But, we do know now bull rally yesterday is fake with dead cat bounce.

Apple still pretty strong and holding back the tide.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 15 2019, 12:55 AM