The major index funds tracking the FTSE china will go down because that's the only way others can
access their market.

On one hand I like to see stricter access for China-based company accessing capitals in American stock market.
Too many of them going thru backdoor channel and they have two sets of accounting records.
A lot of them scam a lot of money from investors. Some won't publish them despite being a public company citing
national security..( ). They would rather risk de-listing after scamming the investors.

On the other hand, don't want to ban them outright because it will force more retaliation.
and this could have a very bad cascading effect. US should soften this approach to limit
China investment in the same way they restrict US to access their market. If China lifts those restrictions,
US can do the same.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 28 2019, 01:21 AM

Going take a shot at BABA here.. a bit overdone on the downside (-6%).

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 28 2019, 03:16 AM

If the US Congress House of Rep managed to successfully impeach him, the Senate will have to give him a trial.
The Senate will likely find him NOT guilty..because too many Republicans there.

But, politically, Trump running for 2020 could be damaged once the House is successful because people unlikely will vote for him.

Trump got majority of the wins in 2016 because of the midwestern farmers and conservatives southern states and some white hicks/hillbillies folks and people are tired of old timer politicians. The hicks/hillbillies folks may still vote for him but midwestern farmers are very angry with him. The upper middle class/conservative may lean to the middle but they may just likely stay out if the too far left liberals win the primary.

The stock market prefers someone in the middle.

As for US adversary.. Russia prefers Trump. North Korea prefers Trump. Saudi prefers Trump..

China initially likes him but after this trade war spat, they may not like him anymore,
geopolitics wise, China may actually still want him since he's a easy to fool and he's reducing US global influence.
They just may have to throw him a few bones for this trade war win.

US falls again tonight..bad PMI data.


DT once again scolds the Fed even for bad PMI data.
Powell gets blamed regardless eventho we all know it's caused by the trade war when manufacturers are getting less orders.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-hammer...-145242527.html

While we wait for the trade war to settle, take a look at
Japan (EWJ), Taiwan (EWT) and Mexico (EWW).

Almost unfazed.... could be good opportunity here.

Also, Vietnam (VNM). The lagging indicator says bearish but
these past two months, it has reversed.

Not sure about that one... ticker?

Market all red tonight except for shorts/inverse etf.

My shorts working.. Dow almost -500 pts.
Going to take some off here.

Govt jobs numbers this Friday.

The ADP number 135K wasn't good enough. Fearing slowdown.
Could be more ammo for bears later if govt numbers are less than expected.

Also, the ISM services (non-manufacturing) data tomorrow Thurs.
This one more relevant because US is about service sector. August data was pretty good.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 3 2019, 05:20 AM

The EWM etf proxy for Malaysia stock market has dropped to 52 weeks low tonight trading at NYSE.

Hey Avfan, welcome back!

AFAIK, I don't think Trump will make any quick u-turn with China. He's looking for a complete deal and
one of the sticky point right now China not willing to budge yet on some of the policies with regards
to their state own enterprises and subsidies but they're trying to negotiate a process/framework
for both countries to build on the pieces that can agree on.

Trump ups his tariff... then back down when China de-escalate with lower tariff on some of their imports.
So, Trump could delay some of this tariff implementation depending on how China respond.
Originally slated for Oct 1, now delayed till Oct 15.

They're suppose to talk again sometime between this week and next week. Some news may come out by Oct 10.

FXI mainly large caps China-based companies, some state-owned too, operating businesses in China.
I don't think they'll should be affected much by trade war since of them spread across different sectors like financial,
constructions, telecommunication. The trade war affects mostly manufacturers.
Also the recent threat of de-listing China-based ADRs in NYSE may not affect FXI since it isn't a company and it has no financial reports to publish.

Sorry, dunno much about this one. Looks like penny stock to me. Price and Volume so low, can be easily manipulated.
Yes, very high risk.

Dow hit that short bottom at 25750, boom... reversal.
Almost caught short..lucky already covered.

-1200 pts... after 5 days, the algorithms automatically turn into BUY mode again.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 4 2019, 02:18 AM

Gotta BUY! Usually the 1st/2nd day of rebound must buy because it is the greatest.

1.5% today for general market.
4.5% for leverage.
10% to calls options.

Next week.. sell into the continuation..until tariff talk announcement.

Hey guys,

There seems to be a sudden wave of commission-free brokers now going live in October.

I think it's all started by RobinHood or Interactive Brokers (IBKR?) dunno which first but looks like
TD Ameritrade just gone live the other day (Oct 4).

I use TD Swim/Think tools a lot and each trade used to be 6.95 plus options/exercise fee.. now all free.

Charles Schwab went commission free (Oct 7)
E-Trade gone commission free too (Oct 7th).
Ally-Invest (used to be MBTrading), 4.95/trade goes to $0.

Great news for us!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 6 2019, 12:39 AM

I think the new way for these brokerages to make money is to sell the orders directly to the
HFT (High Frequency Trading) companies instead of directly to the exchange itself. The HFT
companies pay the brokerages for those orders and fill it themselves if they can find the buyers/sellers match in
their system and send completed orders to the exchanges as acknowledgement.

A good thing is the retail investors may experience very low comissions (or zero), but one bad thing is true price discovery may not be there because HFT companies could leverage better pricing for their true paying customers (eg. investment banks).

The brokerage also make money (interests) of the deposits (as cash or margin) from the retail investors in their account.

There are still (very small) fees that the brokerage charge on behaif of SEC if someone liquidate (sell orders) that the
retail customer still have to pay, but the brokerage won't consider that as commissions.

Here's the thing: That means for the ones who are still using local (Msia) brokerage to trade and still charge local retailers
hefty commissions, they're going to profit even more because they will use the commissions free systems offered in US
to submit their orders on their behalf.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 6 2019, 11:59 PM

Well, there you go.. sell into the market continuation here.

Last week rally, half already taken back.

Everyone waiting for this weekend trade news. Will they get it done. Will DT accept
China counter proposal or will he goes berserk and impose that 30% tariff on Oct 15?

No one knows..only time will tell.

Small bet on negative side but if market moves ahead, will likely take it off ahead of time.

Not good news on trade...

https://www.axios.com/state-department-chin...766acd499e.html

The State Department on Tuesday announced that it would impose visa restrictions on Chinese government officials who are believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, the mass detention and surveillance of Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang province.

The big picture: China has detained an estimated 1 million to 2 million Uighur Muslims in the region of Xinjiang in "re-education camps" as part of a coordinated campaign of forced assimilation. The State Department's announcement follows a decision by the Commerce Department on Monday to blacklist 28 Chinese companies from doing business with the U.S. over the alleged abuses — moves that come just days before another round of highly anticipated trade talks in Washington.

In response to Monday's announcement, a Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said:

"We strongly urge the U.S. to immediately stop making irresponsible remarks on the issue of Xinjiang, stop interfering with the wrong actions of China’s internal affairs, and remove relevant Chinese entities from the list of entities as soon as possible."




https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stoc...tocks-drubbing/

Amid the escalating trade sanctions, and with China's government threatening to end the planned Oct. 10-11 trade negotiations early , the markets again took a hit. At around 3:20 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1%. The tech-laden Nasdaq fell almost 1.1%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 declined 1.3%.


Trade talks failing before it begins..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 9 2019, 04:06 AM

Yes. Crazy as it sounds, China with the communist leadership now acts more in unison.

You know, it should be the other way around but DT now acts like a dictator, not a democracy anymore.
DT fired all his advisers and the people who are experts, left only the "yes" man type in the white house and leaving
all the decisions to him which he can flip-flop all the time.

Congress wants to impeach him asap, not sure if they can even succeed with all the yes-man type Republicans supporting him.

Meanwhile, we will wait for the trade talk tomorrow and Friday.
No big bet here.

Just buy some downside protection for your common stocks will be good.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 9 2019, 11:07 PM

I'm in again for re-short ride eventho market is up today.

Thurs/Friday could be very volatile. Looks like a setup for sell off.

Tonight the bulls are very optimistic.... one leg underwater.

Going to wait and see how it goes by tomorrow. One more day to go.
Hoping they will sell off later.