Oh... I think the trap door is about to open, it's testing the 200ma line.

If DT resigns, market could drop even more because VP (M.Pence) will take over.
He is more hard line conservative than DT. No election till next year (2020).

DT just flips flops a lot but overall people doesn't believe he wants US economy to fail.
In his endeavor to make MAGA, he takes from the left hand to give to the right hand and claim victory.
We just have to be be careful which side on the hand he's giving. Once landed correctly, can benefit a lot.

Right now, China is playing cards with him and also get confused by his action. I think they also worry a lot
whether they're playing this game correctly or not.

So far, it's been around -7% for Dow, -6% for SP500 and -8% for Nasdaq (from the top)
Almost closer to that -10% correction territory. A lot of trader watching this too because likely they'll come and buy this 10% dip if it gets there.

I think the bears are slowly tip toe in and gathering a bit strength, not rushing in.
It is sorta taking the very slow lift down instead of jumping down the emergency slide.

If slides too fast, the VIX will jump and bounce will be fast too but now, the VIX seems to be melting off back to 17 again, preparing to spring coil again upward. Treasury yield bouncing off the lows, as bond traders unload some.

The trend is down now, all we need is just for one bigger piece of bad news, the sell off will accelerate to the downside.

Bears (Puts buyers) also nervous and if Trump flips to the positive side, the "rip-your-face" rally will happen quickly too,
the short covering and panic buyer will step in. Quite a lot of stocks are oversold too.

Bulls got lots of money step aside too because at month end, the funds are coming in and they will have to put in somewhere.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 31 2019, 01:56 AM

Month of May will end tomorrow, maybe China is laying out plan for the weekend and bazooka everyone for June.
Remember, if China retaliates, their market will get hurt too.

So far, it seems that Shanghai Composite is down more than US side (-12% vs -6%) but it also
looks like they top out around mid-April, about 10 trading days before Trump tweet that the deal is off.
Maybe they already know Trump won't like the plan, their market sniff out the leak and start selling already.

There you go, overnight DT picks another fight, this time with Mexico, suddenly blasting them 5% tariff on imported goods from them unles they stop illegal immigration. This actually hurt US consumers more than Mexico, where else can get cheap Mexican stuff?

Yes, that's true in one sense.. good for traders.

Right now, the trajectory is confirmed down, keep shorting till it pivots.

The Sell-in-May and go away mantra is true this year.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 1 2019, 06:03 AM

DT now gone triple insane. Picking on India next.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/trade/44...al-trade-status

The market going on trajectory to revisit Dec lows. Being short is the new long for sure.

So far we have the following from the recent high:

SP500 -6.7%
Dow -6.7%
Nasdaq -9.4% <- lead the way up and the way down.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 2 2019, 01:36 AM

Hence, that's why DT wants the Fed chair to lower interest rate. His cronies can borrow cheaper.

Now, it looks like he's intentionally tanking the market causing economic slowdown/contraction or perhaps on the brink of recession, the Fed will step in to lower the rate to spur growth.

US rate is already at this 2.5% low, if recession really here, Fed got no more firepower.
It used to be very attractive - 8-10% many years ago now, no one can earn a decent rate from putting the money in the bank. All goes into risky
investments.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 2 2019, 01:31 AM

GOOG and FB got smacked down pretty bad today. Major indexes were green but now all red.
More downside to come for sure.

They're buying tonight, both Dow and SP500 bouncing back up and so does Nasdaq. Nasdaq is below the prior day high.
Needs a bit more bulls buying power to reclaim back.

There are 4 ways that I know:

a) Borrow (from your broker) and Sell common stocks outright. You will need a margin account with ability to short a stock. The
risk is unlimited if the stocks keep going up forever.

b) Use options strategy (yes, buy that PUT). The risk here is you pay a premium and if the strike price didn't get to value by expiration,
you lose the premium. The reward is great if your direction is correct, also this is a leverage. Little money is needed (Put or Call option price is less than common stock price at same quantity).

c) Use the inverse ETFs (or bear shares) that moves against the a general or popular ETF (eg. SH, DOG, PSQ, TBF). Applies to mostly ETF or indexes only of a certain sector. Also got leverage like 2x or 3x type. Risk: Prone to tracking error.

d) Use Futures contracts (e-minis)

The market got overly excited when the Fed said they'll 'act as appropriate to sustain the expansion'.
That translate into immediately rate cut if economic tanks. The problem here is they're pricing in not ONE but TWO.
IMO, that's crazy. I think the market read this wrong.

The Fed already shrunk back a bit of the balance sheet, now they want them to print again?
I don't think that's wise if the Fed do that. I think the Fed will take its time (slowly) to look at the real underlying economic data
after it happens and probably find slower growth but certainly not negative and low inflation remains.
Therefore, most likely should hands off interest rate movement in for another year. The market will be disappointed but that's what
the market does. Right now, IMO, still too expensive for next year growth, need to come back down a little more.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 5 2019, 10:47 PM

Day 4, market is stalling here. going to take profit, move into cash.

Tomorrow, the US jobs numbers will be out. I don't expect it to be good since the private payroll numbers
were disappointing or DT will likely fire some unconventional tweets again to spook it.
Let see how it goes.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 7 2019, 01:08 AM

Yup, better be safe than sorry.

These 3 days, US market has rebounded a bit but still less than previous highs.
Maybe another making of a dead-cat-bounce again.

Nothing so far as changed and the talk with Mexico hasn't improve.
The impact for imported Mexico products will be felt immediately within a week or two
since billions cross the borders everyday.

The trade war is made up by DT and looks like he's hell-bent to stir up the market
with the Fed on his back this time (to lower rate if economy tanks).

Then, he's going to end up coming in to save the market (by making deals) like a hero
for the re-election next year.

Strap in, we maybe going in for a bumpy ride for the 2nd half here.

Last hour of trading, DT tweets saying they're likely postpone Mexico tariff, talks ongoing, Dow rallied 200+ pts into close.
I think DT setting up for another trap for bulls again.

BYND is another trader dream..trading at 100x sales. Now, up another 20% just because of the glimmer of revenue.
Reminds me of TSLA. Be careful here.

Hot Dang.. market is on fire despite bad UE numbers. Bad news is good news when they're expecting Fed to lower rate.
Absolutely crazy.

Cannot fight the Fed. Even at the threat of tariff, the power of the Fed can make the Bulls so excited, they don't care.
Shorts cover, panic buyers step in.

Tonight, DT continues to play up the market saying that China can make a deal with him to solve the trade issues. So, market
will ride up on this wave ahead of the deal. It's always going to be buy the rumor and sell the news.

Let's ride up then..see how far it can take us.

This thing is so elevated, getting more juicy and so ripe to short.

The options tables are now available, going to look for some opportunity here.
The fad will eventually die out.