Something still holding up this market.. by now, I would expect it should pull back here.
They're buying every single dips in the morning (or sell gaps up). Volatility low now.

Still in very narrow range but still up trending.

Market is finally breaking down...

Gotta be patience... let see if it can survive more bears news.
We got China came out with bearish data, then US employment rate is also down.
Maybe next shoe to drop is no deal on the trade war, then it will be really serious problem.

They took it down to the 200ma where last break out but there is the lower 50ma support as well.
The market still ok but I like to see it break down further, at least retrace 50%
from where we were back in Dec 24th.

Dunno it will work or not.. but let see what happens. Get some cash ready.

The actual due date is already past.. it was supposed to be March 1, then crazy Trump postponed the tariff deadline giving
reason that deal is close enough but, he's not saying when is that gonna happen yet until
his team and the Chinese team fully agree on the contract. They estimated it's going to be end of March or maybe early April.
but they have no definite meeting date set as of the latest press release.


Trump exaggerated a lot but I think this time, he wants a deal to be fully solidified before when he's ready to meet
with XiJin Ping otherwise it's going to be same situation like N.Korea (Kim Jong Un) where he got nothing to show.
Trump already indicated that he won't sign it unless it is "great". What does that mean?
Whether the Chinese team will fully agree with the American demands or not.. it's a different story.

I'm not going to bet the farm on this but if there is any indication that the deal is not going to work, market is going to
drop really hard.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 9 2019, 10:49 AM

Take a look the QQQ etf, it has all the major techs. No need to stock pick individual names.

Yeah.. 20 isn't a problem. 25 or over 30 will be better. That's when fear really creeps in with capitulation and usually signs of bottom just like on Dec 24th. Let's go there one more time.

The market been pretty resilient this week even with some uncertainty that was brewing since last week.
3 days of non-stop melting up and tonight it pauses just a bit only, then buyers seems to be coming in again.

The Nasdaq (QQQ) been leading the charge, mostly caused by AAPL and MSFT after they got upgraded.
They're juicing up tech again.

The Dow been lagging both SP500 and Nasdaq. It got a pause after Boeing (BA) got hit with their aircraft issues
but it not tanking much at all.

Gotta to see how the week will end but it's 3% gain from last week low. Got more one day to go before Opex.

US market Q1 2019

SP500 +12% YTD
Dow +11% YTD
Nasdaq +15% YTD

Q1 really ends well for US market. Hardly any bears power except for
around March 10 week only.. small dip but bulls quickly gained back.
Most powerful yet again is the Nasdaq (Tech heavy), powered by the come back of
the FAANG stocks.



Compare to Asian market for this Q1 YTD
Malaysia KLCI -3%
Singapore STI +5%
Taiwan TWSE: +9%
HongKong HSI: +12% - matching US market
China Shanghai Composite: 23% <-- strongest bull power..


Here should book profits for the year already.

Bulls still pretty strong.. not a single red day close since last week.
Overbought already.. they still pouring in money.

I think US and China are pushing all seemingly positive "progressive" news to play up the market.
Then, when everything is at the top, they'll drop the ball and say.. "sorry, we can't agree on anything here".
Maybe, we'll get a kaboom then.

Right now, US market is on fire again to reach their last Oct highs. Hedge funds and institutional are in to pump it up higher.
When retail investors get in later.. they'll push the sell button.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 6 2019, 02:00 AM

Some non-residents are issued a TIN (Tax Identification Number) because they do not have a US SSN.
If you have a TIN, then write it here, otherwise write "Not legally required" if you reside outside the US and
do not have a resident card/or US passport. If you have a resident card/US passport, you cannot use W8BEN at all because they won't allow it even if you reside outside the US. The taxman wants their money and chase after all US citizens/residents regardless of where they stay.


Yup, this method will work too. Just go thru your local broker which has link to trade US stocks and they'll do the paperwork for you.


The only thing that I'm aware is once you've file your W8BEN, they'll withhold up to 30% of your dividends distribution but not your capital gains.

Non-US residents - tax free on capital gains but may required to pay dividends tax, based on tax treaty - possibly can reduce or claim back.
No claims on losses allowed since no income tax.

US residents - must pay income tax on capital gains and dividends but can claim loss if loses money.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 18 2019, 03:46 AM

That will work. IMO, they just want a filler in line 6 box. In reality, the US IRS can't really use your foreign passport or IC number as tax id.

I think we're almost to another short term top already. The Nasdaq got there first, now we'll wait for SP500 and Dow.
I think the bears will appear again very soon, it's just waiting for the financial media to report the excuses or reasons to sell.

NFLX reported but shares tanked.

As for AAPL, we already know they settled with QCOM, not much movement for AAPL but biggest winner is QCOM, +34% in 2 days.

Makes QCOM investors very happy but also the one that got away.

See this story:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crying-...tion-2019-04-17

Waiting for China or the Emerging market (EEM) to pull back a little bit more to add some, except for Malaysia.
Malaysia (EWM) is like the worse emerging market for MSCI for the last 52 weeks.

US market (SPY/DIA/QQQ) all too expensive now with the relently bulls rampage,
time to re-balance a bit and let some air out.

The Qs looking good so far, ignoring the Dow pulling back because of 3M.

They should add MSFT to the FAANG.. maybe call it FAAMNG.

FXI/EEM got to my price, time to tip toe in.
Same goes for Oil again, with this Iranian waiver ended, prices could continue to go higher till end of Aug.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 25 2019, 11:36 PM

GOOGL/GOOG (Alphabet) missed revenue, tanked 7% after hours.

So far, all the FAANG+M stocks have reported.

Last of the FAAN(M)G gang made it: AAPL.. up 7% today.

Fed. Powell speaks.. uh huh. The sell off has begun for May.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 2 2019, 03:55 AM

Yeah, even crazy POTUS wants Fed to cut 1%. That's nuts. I think if we close below another low point by tonight, this is going to be reversal. The market always look for a reason to turn around. This Fed speak could be it, coincidental with "Sell in May" time.

Another false breakdown. The unemployment data was much better than expected, the bulls got excited again.
Back to the musical chair game. This market doesn't want to go down yet.