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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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tkwfriend
post Oct 4 2022, 10:35 PM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Oct 4 2022, 09:07 PM)
Thats why i hate playing options.

Its too short term dependent and any sudden reversal in trend will wreck your position although the long term trend you bet on might be right

If you take in long directional bets the decay and time premium eats up all your gain.
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is all about risk management, and strategy. for me, i grow my money majority coming from options, almost all option i done making a range 5% to 135%
tkwfriend
post Oct 5 2022, 10:03 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 4 2022, 10:41 PM)
seller or buyer?
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both side,

my gain last year on buy call option

my gain for up to this year buy call and buy put option, plus some sell put
tkwfriend
post Oct 26 2022, 11:47 PM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 26 2022, 12:47 PM)
And this is what's so wrong....

Ppl just buy because of the name.

Google mah.... everyday use... how to die?

Looking in the fundamentals is much behind the weakness is much better than buying a big name stock just because of its name.... and worst still, when it falls, they just buta buta dca it all way!
This ain't a bull market no more. Buy the deep will only end one deeper and deeper in the HOLE!!!
ya... microSOFT. laugh.gif
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I just love what you say....

many people just think DCA can make money...not just so easy
tkwfriend
post Oct 27 2022, 02:59 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
1,904 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 27 2022, 12:04 AM)
Actually if I never buy the deep. Wouldn't be up huge by now.
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Doing DCA is not wrong, but doing it at the right time and the right trend is more important


I had been through 1997, 2000, 2008, and now 2022 and 2023 crisis, year 2000 is a plan-demic, it suppose to fall in 2019 at the peak but it prolongs


Let me share with you all and do your own calculation which is easier to make money, they are no wrong or right but it all depends how you look at it.

(to me, in this industry for so long, sometimes i treat DCA as a marketing scheme) bangwall.gif bangwall.gif notworthy.gif

Doing cost averaging there is a formula to do it, I name it Effective cost averaging.

Many people know/don't know cost averaging is one of the most painful and expensive to do. Just because famous/ heard people say doing this is easy and effective just do it, and may have had experience doing it but had good experience/ good feel. But in matter of fact it actually the least return out of it why?

Just example 1

Start to buy a stock at USD300 bought 10 (USD3000) as a cost , draw down to 20% usd60 (240) buy another 10 (2400), down another 10% usd24(216) buy another 10(usd2160) = place in capital of usd7560.00 @ usd252 per share or possible keep doing DCA down and down, maybe price go up to usd260 per share you make your money, but very little.

The effective cost average formula is the initial cost price per share x unit= total capital

Current price x (unit "usually 3x time 5x of amount)= total amount required

Both capitals adds up and divide the unit.

if the price now is 216 for effective cost average usually ranges differently is 215.80 to 215.99 it will be the closest to the current price.

(The cost average only maximum do it 2 times, more than 2 will be very expensive to do it) (I had used it for the past 5 years not only for myself but for more than 200 people and others who guided in the industry)

At the moment still i don't do it for long term, but only short term. whistling.gif whistling.gif

tkwfriend
post Oct 27 2022, 01:08 PM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
1,904 posts

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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 27 2022, 06:29 AM)
I would rather focus on WHY.

If I had made an investment in a stock. After say 6 months and I find my investment is LOSING money. The most important thing for me to do is to ask if I had made a mistake.

Yes?

One year later. Still losing money. Clearly I farked up. Yes?

So if I STUBBORNLY ignored the due process of reviewing my investment thoroughly and checking if it WAS ME that SCREWED Up and further aggravate the situation by AVERAGING Down, clearly I am stubbornly wrong.

Yes?

And even worst still... insisting to hold the stock for 15 years.

Take Meta (what a shitty new name. Lol).

Just a year ago, it was around 350? Now? Average down all the way just because of the global branding of Facebook? Or perhaps one should review if thereecist fundamental weakness in Meta businesss economics?

Average down of OR DCS should not be used as a correction strategy for one POOR initial investment decision...

user posted image
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I like it, the, why to do DCA, This should be the first step



QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 27 2022, 08:23 AM)
the main problem is ppl never taught to sell... mainly just buy, dca n keep for donkey years... sell only when retire or when needed the money... lol... not sell because screw-up...

also... ppl inherently hopeful... tomorrow better day... sell today missed out tomorrow... lol...
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Many are thought to buy, and hold don't know how long.
I remember this funny statement

When come to stock investment/trading
is just like finding a pretty girl and hookup with the girl for either 1-night stand or longer (not married)
When getting boring or not suitable break up/ or change it

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 27 2022, 09:07 AM)
You meant AVERAGE DOWN for so many years... laugh.gif

Oh yea... they buy wrong and use LONG TERM to justify themselves. I can't imagine... if after 15 years... and I am still wrong about that stock.  wink.gif  doh.gif

How? A 15 year mistake? That would be epic, wouldn't it?

And with Life being ever so short, wonder if I will survive that 15 years or not too....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
but yea.....  ppl are always hopeful for all the wrong reasons and they tend to be easily influenced. wink.gif

It's like US markets. Comeon.. I am sure many are diving into the US markets cos of the many, many makan and minum sessions where they hear real success stories from their close friends. Yes, they made good money but that was when the markets was in a bull market orgy. Prices were goreng beyond the moon.....

so they dive in.................................................. and now all this.....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
but yea.. yea.... last 3 words..... 'AM I WRONG' ..... that should always be asked when one is investing or trading.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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most of them does this
tkwfriend
post Oct 28 2022, 03:03 PM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
1,904 posts

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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 28 2022, 07:55 AM)
AAPL holding up so far... phew!  sweat.gif

But, AMZN...  puke.gif
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haha, i shorted aaple make about 2% console.gif
tkwfriend
post Nov 15 2022, 01:52 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 14 2022, 05:28 PM)
Off the top of my head, SGD tracks USD's performance. The thing to watch for now is how much will the SGD hold against the MYR now,.... This day will come after the SGD has run-up. The secret lies in whether the SGD will weaken all the way down again.
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The answer for USD possible to go up more later part, many people think FED will pivot, very possible to look at next year after june
tkwfriend
post Nov 15 2022, 02:31 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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QUOTE(MystiqueLife @ Nov 15 2022, 02:24 AM)
If Fed starts reducing rates, wouldn't USD go down more while indexes go up?  confused.gif  confused.gif
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let see, it will take at least 3 month to 6 month before pivot

they dont increase interest this month, next month reduce, in history never happen.
tkwfriend
post Dec 23 2022, 01:58 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
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From: Kelana Jaya , Petaling Jaya



timing is everything, you can always time the market by using a cycle analysis, not 100% but 80% all the time is correct.
tkwfriend
post Dec 23 2022, 01:59 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Dec 23 2022, 01:42 AM)
the drop is my winning, on option 81% gain
tkwfriend
post Aug 3 2023, 02:13 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Jul 31 2023, 08:10 PM)
Not likely this year 🤦‍♀️ possible major correction come next year Feb

It will be just slight bumpy this year but the market unlikely to test this year low during April

Trimming to lock in gains is rather prudent at this time now until August
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i am looking 6- 8 may 2024
tkwfriend
post Aug 6 2023, 02:12 AM

I always doubt and always something goes wrong
******
Senior Member
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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Aug 3 2023, 03:58 AM)
Why that date?
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because there is a calculation for marketing timing and market cycle. in fact, now warming up a lot of war cycle.this date not from me, but is when I attended a legendary person in US annual talk. his system partially already moving in a AI for a while. is called Armstrong Economic.

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