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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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yok70
post Mar 27 2020, 01:16 PM

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come on, give me 1800 thumbup.gif
yok70
post Mar 27 2020, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 27 2020, 01:36 PM)
Coming, coming..... next week, next month, next year. biggrin.gif
*
rclxm9.gif
yok70
post Mar 27 2020, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Morning_Star @ Mar 27 2020, 02:55 PM)
Can u ppl access : https://www.cmegroup.com/

says Access denied
*
i can access the homepage.
yok70
post Mar 30 2020, 06:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 30 2020, 05:05 AM)
Yup.. this is what the bears were waiting for.

Something really unexpected, a real black swan, not even
the power of Fed can stop it.

All these years, the bulls been buying not stop with liquidity abound
and little growth in real economy. 

I think it's the day of reckoning here this year.

2008-2009..we have housing/financial recession

2019-2020.. now we have the coronavirus/covid-19 recession.
This outbreak - no economist really has seen this coming except for the big Nerd himself - Bill Gates
- nobody pays attention to him 5 years ago but his foundation been doing good work by providing funding for
research and vaccine to the countries that need since the Ebola outbreak.
*
So Bill Gates is after all a real genius. Although whenever he sits side by side with Steve Jobs and Warren Buffet, they always steal the spotlights from him. What to do, he speaks like a nerd, and looks like a nerd, he is boring. laugh.gif
yok70
post Mar 30 2020, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 30 2020, 07:53 AM)
Oil really baffles me.. I never expect it would fall BELOW that 2008 recession price (around $39/40)
Then... bam $20. Wow.. just Wow!  shocking.gif
That's just WTI.

The Western Canadian crude fell to as low as $5 on Friday.. insane!
Cheaper than mineral water in the same barrel and cheaper than rolls of premium toilet papers.

It's just double whammy. At the same time demand destruction, both the Saudis and Russians are engage in price war by increasing production. It's absolutely nuts..  Opec killing their own members revenue with this kind action.

I think Malaysia Petronas suffers the big blunt with TAPIS prices now at $28.. fell 50% from the high $62 just 30 days ago.
2020 is going to the horrible year for Malaysia.
*
OPEC (should say Saudis) has the most un-creative strategic team in the world, I can't recall seeing them doing any creative plan on fighting with oil business. Saudi has no businessmen? hmm.gif
yok70
post Mar 30 2020, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 30 2020, 09:03 AM)
saudi has only one primary objective - to kill off marginal producers.

not only us shale but the likes of petronas too.

this is their golden chance to do it swiftly with help of cov19! tongue.gif
*
It's not gonna work as they wish. Because shale is just too easy to come back, the technology allows them to abandon the facilities when oil price unfavorable, but can anytime reopen with minimum effort when oil price become favorable. And for Russia, well, if Saudi pushes too hard until Russia economy dying, that can only trigger a suicide war for the Saudi. US might probably just sit and watch the show. laugh.gif
yok70
post Mar 30 2020, 10:57 PM

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Is it another dead cat bounce? hmm.gif biggrin.gif
yok70
post Mar 31 2020, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Mar 31 2020, 12:12 AM)
You still waiting to buy huh biggrin.gif
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yes....sold some past few days and today, now wait to buy back at lower....please go back 2200, then deeper to 1800... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Mar 31 2020, 06:33 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 31 2020, 03:51 AM)
Wow.. this market has a lot of optimism built it.

Sold my PUTs again for this week.

SP500 2600..15% buffer zone from 2200. Should be able to hold off
unless bulls suddenly die out again and became bears by Friday.
*
if it could hold well by end of this week, and no shocking news in coming weeks, perhaps we had already met our bottom last week (of 2191)? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 31 2020, 06:34 AM
yok70
post Mar 31 2020, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 31 2020, 10:49 AM)
Just around 20+ days... are we going to see 50% drops (or more?). Time will tell but be ready.  sweat.gif

user posted image
*
Like you always said, we are dominated by robot traders nowadays. A very different game to play now, everything accelerate 10 times maybe. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 31 2020, 11:34 AM
yok70
post Apr 2 2020, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 2 2020, 09:51 AM)
-4.4%... only. tongue.gif

no mood to go in.

not until another -10%, maybe...
*
Yes! Another -10% come come! thumbup.gif
yok70
post Apr 3 2020, 01:09 AM

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looks like market likes trump's oil talk very much (for today).
guess today won't have any fireworks to see.
can go watch tv already. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Apr 4 2020, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(oOoproz @ Apr 4 2020, 12:18 AM)
Gonna be another sleepless night, good luck guys
*
really? it seems mild to me, looks like another boring day. time to go watch tv. laugh.gif
yok70
post Apr 4 2020, 05:56 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 4 2020, 04:25 AM)
A bit disappointment this week because the bears didn't rampage and take it back down to the lows (SP 2200) despite
bad jobs numbers.  I think it's all because of the Fed PPT. They buying dips on the sidelines and pumping money
back into the system.  mad.gif
*
yes, i still see strong bulls supporting the market. if bears unable to take it down by end of this month, we may actually met our bottom 2 weeks ago, and the bottoming process has been happening quietly. Unless, of course, Trump did something crazy again. I still don't see any major damage to the economy by the covid-19, mainly because its damage is not unpredictable. Financials are still strong and stable, "essential large companies" are still strong although profit will be delay for 3 to 4 quarters if not 2 to 3 quarters. Small or weak companies may not survive, yes, but this may not be a bad thing. It will accelerate the process of M&A and business integrations. Later, market will be more neat, although less competitions mean less pricing power for consumers, but i don't think the situation can turn severe. I'm expecting some revisits to recent lows maybe a few times before the bull returns. Just wild guess lah! I'm always very bad at TA laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 4 2020, 06:16 AM
yok70
post Apr 4 2020, 08:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 4 2020, 10:17 AM)
be patient, as u r, always. biggrin.gif

the fall was very fast, very steep, gotta rebound somewhat.

+ all the stimulus + all the big bulls with big cash = big bear not arrived yet.

when more bad data comes out, the sentiments will change quickly... then with 1 trigger, u get there. tongue.gif

when... 2 weeks, 1 qtr, 1/2 year? when full impact is known?
whatever, the way some thing works incl stocks may be changed 4ever as this epidemic is not going away so soon.

a couple years? or until an effective cure or vaccine is developed... but is elusive.
*
thanks for your advice. biggrin.gif

i still trade sometimes, not only buy for long term. so the big swings are good for trading short term, target at 10%-15% swing. laugh.gif
yok70
post Apr 5 2020, 12:55 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 4 2020, 08:22 PM)
right... now, i only trade, preferably day trade.

dun wanna get caught in a 15% dive! tongue.gif
*
however, my 75% stocks still holding. i'm only playing with the 25% cash on short term trading. i'm still a Buffet supporter. biggrin.gif

Buffet is right about trading. If we don't hold, if we only follow TA to buy in, we'll miss the huge portion of the rebound. ie in current market. if we only buy after bullish indicator hit, we'll probably buy above 2800. That case, if the bottom is 1800, we'll miss 55% gap on profit. If the mid term peak is 3500, we'll be missing a 55% for a 25%.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 5 2020, 01:04 AM
yok70
post Apr 5 2020, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 5 2020, 01:54 AM)
If portion of the portfolio is you're long term hold..it's perfectly ok to dollar-cost-average them 'coz those are the ones
that usually give you a best value over much longer them. Just buy them on per dollar cost-basis and keep
accumulating until you reach that goal.  thumbup.gif
*
Yes, I only buy those target for long term stocks. And i also only trade (short term) on the same bags of stocks that targeting long term (double protection laugh.gif ).
Thanks for your advice biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 5 2020, 09:03 PM
yok70
post Apr 5 2020, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 5 2020, 09:56 AM)
i'm just the opposite.

i am hold 25%, 75% ready to go.

very strong feeling the worst hasn't come.
meanwhile, monday...
*
I understand. Good luck for us and everyone! Every bear market is scary, as they always said. laugh.gif
I still wish we can meet 1800 region in this round of bear market. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 6 2020, 01:00 AM
yok70
post Apr 6 2020, 10:15 PM

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oh boy....bull today.... hmm.gif
yok70
post Apr 7 2020, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 6 2020, 10:33 PM)
Sources say that if S&P 500 breaches 2700 level, we enter bull market i.e. V-shaped recovery.
*
need to stay there for at least two weeks in order to confirm bull has return, i guess. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 7 2020, 12:01 AM

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