wow....teasing bull category....

they called this, timing the market.

My question to you is a simple one: Since you already feel that things will improve (significantly) when vaccine occurs, how long do you think we need to get vaccine ready?
The killer of a bull market is always this: Uncertainty. Now, for the case of Covid-19, how serious are we in the situation of UNCERTAINTY?
Lastly, market is usually 9 month - 1year in advance.
These are my thoughts in the first day China announces quarantine action.

We took a hard ride 10 years ago on fixing the financial issues in US and Europe. No one wants the bull to end just like this. Everyone will try their best to bring back the bull that took them years to feed it strong. Trump is definitely one of them. As long as there is still hope to bring it back, they will spend every penny they safe all these years to feed the bull to come out strong and kill the weak bear.

No matter what, i still wish to see the previous bottom again. I think it's healthier that way for the bull to grow even stronger and run for more years in the future. Covid-19 will put a lot of leisure retail businesses in deep water for another 6 month to 1 year even if a cure or vaccine is ready. People will just worry to go out to a crowd for some time. Casino, cinemas, restaurants, malls, all will be suffer quite a bit. That will create a lot of fear in the market for sure.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 14 2020, 11:33 PM

thanks!

Exactly. But of course, it's impossible for every companies or every sectors to return to normal. Because the world scale economy transition (ie. the rise of high tech to replace certain industries) will accelerate, probably not just 1x, but 3x, even 4x the speed without Covid-19 attack.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 15 2020, 12:55 AM

good news!

I read that USO is good for short term tracing of WTI, but not good for long term because "the fund may experience contango when rolling the futures contracts, which is unfavorable for long-term investors."
Wondering if there is any ETF good to trace crude oil long term?

* Crude Oil May 20 (CL=F) now down 0.75%, but USO down 6.1%. Quite different.

SPY and VOO do not have the above "rolling contracts" issue? Good for long term?

Thank you teachers here!

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 16 2020, 01:07 AM

actually, my intention is how to buy (trade) crude oil, if not going to play futures, because i don't know how to trade futures.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 16 2020, 01:42 AM

thanks!

thanks!

"Once the major indexes rise above their 200-day moving averages, it might be time to consider buying your favorite stocks. Do not be in a rush to buy, at least until there is a strong and long-lasting uptrend. Although buying low sounds great, it’s risky to enter too early."

Above is the most popular line of any expert's recommendation, to stay strong above 200-day line. Lets take a look at BRK-B. Its 200-day line is at 210. If the stock rise above 210, there will left 10% to reach its 52-wk high (which i think is all time high as well). I was wondering, what's the point to buy in a bear market to only get a 10% discount? Ok, lets examine its recent low, which is 160. It is about 24% discount to the 200-day line. I don't see why we shouldn't buy at 160 even if we don't know how deep the bear market can go, if we like this stock very much and we are optimistic for its long term performance.

Oh, the statement was talking about "major index". If we replace the above BRK-B case to SP500, the numbers are actually not far away. The 200 day is at 3014 (11% discount from all time high), the previous low at 2191 (27% discount to 3014), the all time high at 3393.

Just a thought to share with all. Just feel sometimes, some experts suggestions are quite unreasonable. They are good for them to tell stories to their clients though, to show that at least they have some ideas in their mind about how to trade the bear market.



This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 16 2020, 12:22 PM

money is getting cheaper and cheaper each day. iPhone was RM2K+ just few years ago, the most expensive phone in the market. And today? RM6K+! Cash? What is cash!

ya....don't know how low is low.

Will the USO sudden move after the settlement of changing to June contracts? Move upwards or downwards (June WTI seems higher than May WTI?) ?

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 20 2020, 01:12 PM

i see. thanks!

i was confused too before, but after the explanations from teachers here, i think i understand it now.
the answer to your question is, NO. The idea is this. All ETFs that trace oil futures, when they need to renew contracts, they will spend a few days to do the switch. ie, as for today is April, they need to switch from holding May contracts into holding June contracts. They sell May contracts, and use the money to buy June contracts. You see, they won't make profit by switching into June contracts just because June contracts price are higher. In fact, they need to sell more contracts to buy less contracts because of the price spread.
Please correct me if i was wrong.

thanks for the confirmation.

Munger must be mad now. Holding that mountain of cash without a chance to use them. Investment world evolves every day, there is hardly any repetitive events. Everyday new.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/52301914-f18f-3...nger-calls.html

you bought XLE? it behaves stable so far.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 21 2020, 12:50 AM