me too, very itchy fingers....but ya, wait a bit first....calm down...

mild rebound....hmm, it seems tomorrow may continue blood bath....

today flat....

....oh, now it turns mild red....looks like it may return back to previous low....

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 10 2019, 12:11 AM

yap....heading towards previous lows....

Is this a trick? A fake bear?

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 15 2019, 12:32 AM

Now, they turn to Apple Watch positive, after previous Apple services. All kinds of "excuse" to be bullish....

question is, to flush out bad stuff in which industry? i tried to find bubbles in an industry, but couldn't find yet....well, in HK, there is a quite obvious one, the housing industry (a drop of 50% sounded reasonable, although that's quite unlikely to happen in short term), highly overpriced products. But in US, can you find any?

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 16 2019, 09:28 AM

Actually, what i mean was, the industries that may caused recession, not about valuation of public listed companies.
Tesla, even if it bankrupt, it will not cause any major damage to the US economy. The same goes to Beyond Meat and Uber etc.
Stocks overvalued can only caused a little effect on investors who invested in them, unless it's a broad base overvaluation in entire US market, which may cause financial crisis.

You mention JD. I think it's not too overpriced, just that the market has priced in its current/forward earnings instead of trailing earnings.
For FY19, consider GAAP EPS (in USD), Q1 is 0.74 and Q2 is 0.05, that goes 1.58 full year (although most people think 2H should be even stronger due to holiday season). This gives a PE of 19x at $30 share price. Now see Non-GAAP EPS. Q1 is 0.33 and Q2 is also 0.33, that goes 1.32 full year. This gives PE of 22.7x. I'd say, not so expensive, consider it's likely to maintain double digits earning growth in the next few years. For JD, the kind of company which still at high growth/shaping stage, the earnings and expenses can be very volatile. I like to simply look at its market cap after a healthy balance sheet (JD has a healthy balance sheet and cash flow). JD's market cap is only 10% of Alibaba, and 5% of Amazon. When i look at how big JD is, and how small its market cap is, i say it's a bargain.

Thanks for the info on US housing market, surprise to know that some regions has cheaper than Malaysia house! However, nowadays, Malaysia housing price is overvalued for sure. As for KL, i guess, maybe a 25% overpriced. But in HK and even China, house in city center is ridiculously high!

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 17 2019, 07:14 AM

Haha! I can understand how people don't trust any numbers coming from China. In fact, those China listed companies in Bursa, at least half (or more than half!) of them have been suspended and queuing up to be de-listed....all have been lying on their accounting numbers in past years....

True, consumers sentiment is a key area for US economy (and also China economy now). Looks like the "feel good sentiment" has become very essential for world economy now.

Waiting for you to dig out that troublesome area that could cause the next financial crisis....something to do with increment of national debt (for both US and China)?

Thanks for sharing

In Malaysia, I think middle class household income in big city could be around 6000-12000. Affordable house price is around 500K. Lets take 10K as income (it's 120K annual). That's 4.16x, pretty decent! Surprisingly! So there will still be huge leg up potential then, if economy able to improve long term. You are making USD income, you must have bought dozens of house in Malaysia.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 19 2019, 07:39 AM

One of the thing that is different for now is that, competitions are getting stiffer than before, particularly US now has a equivalent level enemy, China. So, antibiotic has been taken as daily supplements.

do you think fed will raise rate?

oops, i mis-typed, i meant lower rate.

ya, what an unexpected reaction coming from China. Trump must be very frustrating now, his plans all didn't work out smoothly. Fed doesn't listen to him, China didn't listen to him. Not sure about if Europe would listen to him. And some are in the queue....ie. Korea.... Speaking of China government a dictator, Trump now "ordered" US companies to leave China. Who is a dictator now?

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 24 2019, 06:43 AM

is there any president in any country in the world with face skin as thick as DT? Just wondering

you actually have a point. DT has made nationalism much stronger now, which is "sort of " contradict to the spirit of democracy aka the quality of equality and freedom.

he is a bull when he wants the votes.
he can be either one when he wants to make money from the market.

flat day after excitement....

Cramer is usually 馬後砲。

DT just wants more chips to play trade war with China, he doesn't care about America's death or alive, he just care if he could win the next election

This post has been edited by yok70: Sep 7 2019, 06:52 AM