The Covid-19 and oil issues will be long over by the time the US elections come in November. I expect to see the stock market bottoming in April with a recovery over the next few months.

You expect the market to go back to 2012 levels? Clearly wont happen. I predict the market will rebound somewhere near the 2300 mark.

Next critical level would be $160. If this fails to hold it might go all the way to $120.

Bank stocks will get whacked again this month when Feds cut rates again. They might go for the full basis point. Im expecting JP Morgan to hit $50-70 after which will be a good entry point.

If uve been using indicators as long as i have you will understand that there is no indicator which gives you correct signals all the time. All indicators will work at some time but over a longer period they are completely useless. I started my forex trading journey 4 years ago with these indicators and ive dumped them all. I only use the RSI on the Weekly chart and never below the Daily chart.

US stock futures down 4% in morning trade. Australia down 5.7% while Tokyo is down 4.8%.

If you look at the S&P500 futures chart on the weekly timeframe, you will notice there is a 11 year support trendline from early 2009. It comes in near 2,480-2,520. Below that is a key horizontal support level at 2,300.

This is a very strong trendline so a break of this trend line will require a daily close below 2,300 (low of Dec 2018) and bearish retest to ensure further drops. Failing which there will be a bullish bounce. A break below 2300 will expose the next critical support at 1800 (low of Jan 2016).

The drop yesterday reflected a correction of 19% from the all time high of 3,400. A drop to 2,300-2,400 would mean a correction of 29%-32%. A very acceptable correction for a market that has hit higher highs for a good part of 2019 until 3,400.

As such, i expect a market rebound near the 2,300-2,400 level.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2020, 11:32 AM

You are absolutely correct. Many people get burnt with stocks because they invest with money they cannot afford to lose or money which they will need in the next 6-12 months. Plus they get dragged into trading stocks pumped up by greed/fear in order to maximize profits but as history has proven those who have been passive investors are always the ones who end up making a good & consistent return over a 5-15 year period.

Yes. That was what happened to those who bought stocks from 28 Feb to 4 March.

The S&P500 did rally between 28 Feb to 4 March by about 287 points or 10% from the low of 2,854 until 3,140 before it corrected lower again. Rallies can happen at any time driven by fundamentals in both correction or bear markets. Its not about if and when rallies happen but rather how long it can sustain and to what levels.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2020, 01:42 PM

Well, circuit breakers are just to curb panic selling. Nothing to do with technical analysis of charts. Its like taking panadol for headaches. Works for a while but if u have a brain tumor the headache comes back.

Anyway like i said im expecting a drop to the region of 2300-2400 sometime before this month ends.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2020, 03:05 PM

US stock market hit 7% limit down circuit breaker again. Trading stopped.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2020, 09:39 PM

My target to buy is at 2300 for the S&P500. But judging by the way the 2600 level was destroyed just now, i don't think 2300 will hold.

Markets opened at 9.45pm. S&P500 is down 6.95% now.

I was referring to the re-open after the 7% circuit breaker.

If he did that he would be going against his long term investing mantra. He may save a few million here but when u go against your mantra you risk losing alot more in future. Its like once u break the rule you keep breaking it so eventually you lose out.

The Feds will need to be extra cautious. The last 0.5 basis point cut was poorly timed. If the cut is poorly timed together with negative news the potential positive impact of the cut is watered down. The Feds need to try and ensure more of the bad news is priced in before they cut again. They are running out of bullets.

Some of his own investors were questioning his decision not to spend alot of that $120bil last year. But now its clear to the world why he chose to wait. In the last quarter Warren Buffet bought only 3 stocks:

1) Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
2) Delta Airlines (DAL)
3) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

These 3 stocks represent 2 major sectors i.e energy and airlines plus Berkshire which reflects an index fund. Warren buffet was always a strong advocate of the Vanguard S&P500 ETF. So it makes sense. There is always a reason why he does things. We have to be smart and look beneath the surface to see what the underlying msg is.

And thats a good thing. That's why he is buying more of his stocks. If you have a long term view, this is a plus point not a negative.

The S&P500 closed down 9.9% today ending at 2,480. Total 27% drop from peak effectively wiping out all of 2019's gains.So we are back to Dec 2018 levels. The RSI indicator on the weekly chart is at 25% (extremely oversold). The lowest since Nov 2008 when the S&P500 was at 809 points.

The Feds announcement a few hours ago didn't stop the selling but i think the interest rate cut + announcement of the US Gov stimulus package next week will surely boost markets. But i also think the current price action is already pricing in those positives to a certain extent so rebound may not sustain.

Either way, 54% of the stocks on my target list have hit target entry levels. So i might consider buying some next week depending how the market closes tomorrow.