Markets especially in China will continue to drop as long as the coronavirus continues to spread and kill. But once that is over it will be a buyers market again.

4 FEB 2020

The biggest sell-off in more than four years hit Chinese equities on Monday.The last time Chinese stocks performed this poorly, the country was in the middle of a massive market meltdown in 2015. Inflated share prices eventually gave way to a big crash, while the wider Chinese economy was slowing down. In Shanghai, stocks lost 30% of their value in a matter of weeks.
 
Fearing an economic crisis, the government deployed its big guns. In July 2015, China's Securities Finance Corporation (CSF) announced it would lend billions to the 20 biggest Chinese brokerage firms so they could buy stocks. These 20 firms spent USD144 billion in 2 months buying up stocks of the biggest companies on the Shanghai stock exchange. In the meantime, Central Huijin Investment, an arm of China's sovereign wealth fund, also pumped billions into stocks. This was China's first step in creating a national stock market intervention fund that it could deploy to keep markets stable when necessary.

By Feb 2016, the stock market had returned to normal. A testament of the superior strength of China’s state backed funds. Since then, the CSF and Central Huijin Investment have become the driving force behind China's "national teams" — a nickname given to the investment managers that can be deployed to buy up stocks when necessary to keep the markets steady.
 
Now that the coronavirus is taking a toll on markets, the "national teams" are ready for a comeback. China has already made clear that state intervention is on the table. China's response already appears to be echoing 2015. State media reported this week that the securities regulator introduced a ban on short selling — when traders borrow shares to sell in the hope of buying them back at a lower price — to mitigate the slide in the markets. Back in 2016, the country blamed short sales for exacerbating the crash.
 
It's not yet clear, though, when the coronavirus outbreak will peak — and what kind of effect the continued spread of the virus could have on markets. Monday's losses, while huge, were China's way of catching up to what overseas markets were already doing. Chinese markets were closed for more than a week for a holiday while the number of confirmed coronavirus cases mounted, while other markets were able to price in the impact. The immediate, short-term selling is over but the outlook for markets is going to depend on when the outbreak reaches its peak. That will depend on the speed of new confirmed cases, mortality rate and community infection cases.
 
Some economists have cautioned that the impact on China's economy could be severe — a troubling prospect for an already fragile economy, and for global growth. If the Coronavirus headcount doesn't start to improve and the Chinese economy deteriorates more than expected, it means the sell off in the stock markets will continue.

But that will also mean that China will deploy their ‘national teams’ with hundreds of billions of dollars at their disposal to defend the stock market.

History has proven that epidemics have minimal impact on stock markets. In fact all it does is provide a dip point to buy more stock.

Any examples of good dividend portfolios?

Ure not recommending. Ure sharing what you think are good or what you currently own. So do share. Thats the purpose of this forum.

Yes i boight in June 2019. I dont trade stock and every major dip ill keep buying. Nobody makes money from trading. Its long term stock ownership which has a better chance of making money for you.

This is my US stock tracking sheet with my potential entry points. I expect the market to continue to drop today and Monday plus even Tues before it rebounds.



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I already have about 7 stocks which i bought last year. 95% of stocks listed here are blue chip S&P500 so financially strong. I will analyse again over the weekend and select my Top 20 which i will target to buy next week depending on how the market moves on Monday night.

The 2800-2900 level on the S&P500 is a critical level. If we get a close below this level tonight, the rebound will be pushed back further.

Either way im not trading. Ill buy the dips and hold for some time.



This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Feb 28 2020, 10:46 PM

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 4 2020, 01:16 PM

I am sharing my US stock PDF (updated today) which details the following:

1) 53 stocks (95% are blue chip S&P500 stocks) which i think are well positioned for a healthy rebound once this corona virus mess is over
2) Highlighted stocks are on my target list
3) 4 month high points (to focus on stocks impacted by the pandemic)
4) Majority of stocks have dropped min 20% from 4 month highs
5) Relative Strength Index (RSI) based on the weekly charts (to give better view of long term price trends minus noise)
6) Possible entry points for each stock based on chart technical analysis & analyst consensus
7) Sell points to achieve 30% profit from each stock
8) Zacks ranks & Zacks Value-Growth-Momentum ratings
9) Simply Wall Street's summary rating

I am watching 2 key levels on the S&P500 charts:

3,140 - a close above this will signal a possible resumption of the bull trend
2,350 - drop below will confirm bear trend

Until either of these levels are breached we will get alot of fluctuations in between. I am fairly certain market has not reached a bottom. But im also aware that alot of negativity is being priced in already. Maybe more than reality. So we might get a move towards 2,400-2,500 before a real rebound happens. I need to see 3 daily candles closing in a 'higher high' manner before i consider buying stocks. So i wont get the absolute low point but somewhere close i hope.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 10 2020, 02:13 PM


Attached File(s)
 US_TARGETTED_STOCKS_10_MAR_2020.pdf ( 142.25k ) Number of downloads: 68

Any chart analysis below the Daily timeframe is very prone to 'noise' and wrong signals. I wouldn't dare use H1 or below unless im a trader but even then its far too risky.

Most info from the charts on www.tradingview.com and then from Zacks and SimplyWallStreet.

US stock futures are up 3.4% pointing to a rebound when markets open later tonight. But only a crazy person would try to buy this. There will always be a technical rebound after a major sell off and although this is driven by Trump's upcoming economic response fiscal package. But it shouldnt distract us from the bigger theme which is the spread of Covid-19 in the US and Europe which has just started to pick up pace. If the China experience is anything to go by, it will be sometime in April before we start seeing infections peak and that would be the start of the stock market rebound assuming the Q1 2020 financial results are not worse than expected.

Its not about what it CAN be used for rather what timeframe gives the most accurate readings over the longer term. Any indicator can be uaed on the lower time frames but thats also where the most noise is.

I wonder where all the Tesla buyers have disappeared to. The ones who were rushing to buy when the price was $800+. They seem to have gone silent with prices languishing around 600. Maybe they will come back once they see the bounce later at 9.30pm.

So where ia the S&P500 heading to this month?

It wont go below 2300-2350. And if it bounces near this level the bounce would be humungous.

If the S&P500 closes below 2780 tonight, it will form a bearish pin bar from a key resistance level on the daily chart which might send stocks down further tmr.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 10 2020, 10:55 PM

Slightly delayed. But im using to analyse long term weekly charts stretching back 2-3 years so live quotes dont make a difference to me.

Based on this morning's close the S&P500 is down 15% from all time high of 3,400. I think market needs to correct 20-25% before a solid rebound occurs. That would mean a rebound around the 2,300-2,400 level. We might get that this month which sets up end March/early April nicely for a rebound.

My bullets are ready.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 11 2020, 10:23 AM