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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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TOS2
post Apr 7 2025, 09:49 AM

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It is now trading close to 91.45. Sold half of my BIL ETF at 91.45. Pretty liquid this morning with multiple 3-digit transaction blocks of units.

This post has been edited by TOS2: Apr 7 2025, 09:51 AM
TOS2
post Apr 7 2025, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Apr 7 2025, 12:20 PM)
These might help toward V shape recovery.

I am currently on SPXU (-3x SP500) since February. So naturally I will look into SPXL(3x SP500) and I found interesting stuffs.

user posted image
Need to wait for volume to spike like covid crash. If you see volume starting to spike, it mean institution activities is increasing. Wait until you see highest spike(green color) + green engulfing candle, that is your entry.

This is Lehman crash. Same activity. Volume spike(green) + green engulfing candle.

user posted image
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Ah you are using tradingview?

The chart is on weekly basis right, so the weekly volume data is only known one week after the recovery. That means we will always be behind by 1 week?
TOS2
post Apr 7 2025, 02:56 PM

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SP500 futures sink further. Another 5% lost today...

Every day 5% gone lol
TOS2
post Apr 8 2025, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(mois @ Apr 8 2025, 08:50 AM)
I just checked. Today tradingview weekly chart. It show a new volume candle. So basically the volume candle closed on Friday US market ( Saturday morning our time).

To make it easier, if saturday morning(our time) see volume green spike + green engulfing candle, by Monday night can buy the dip.
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Haha Monday effect in stock market likely due to this...
TOS2
post Apr 21 2025, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Apr 21 2025, 09:31 AM)
bro Ramjade... not sure if you remember... hehehe

user posted image

and since Apr 11...

user posted image

there's a lesson for you somewhere... bro Tos2 too... whistling.gif

anyways, cheers...
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Not sure what lesson you are referring to...

I no longer pick stocks in the US. VOO and QQQM for me from now on.

Only keep my stakes in Hermes, TSMC, OCBC and disappointedly, Novo Nordisk.

Topped at VOO and OCBC during the recent market turmoil. Price point was good. OCBC topped up at 14.97 SGD a piece (100 units, include 3 SGD commission -> 15 SGD a unit average price, already in the green now). VOO topped up at 470.60 also in the green.

Cash is 50-60% of my portfolio, all set if turmoil repeats. My OCBC's upcoming 9th May dividend is already worth 115 SGD. Not a lot to start with, but my passive income is starting to build up.

Net worth sits at 360k MYR. Targeting 400k in July-August. Saving 8k MYR a month now... got gf liao so spending goes up... but you get to enjoy better quality of living! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by TOS2: Apr 21 2025, 01:08 PM
TOS2
post Apr 21 2025, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Apr 21 2025, 09:31 AM)
bro Ramjade... not sure if you remember... hehehe

user posted image

and since Apr 11...

user posted image

there's a lesson for you somewhere... bro Tos2 too... whistling.gif

anyways, cheers...
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Yea, Walmart is good old retail business. Once you master the trick and monopolize the supply side you have enough bargaining power to push down supplier cost and prevent price rises from scaring customers away.

If you follow the money you would have long known that Google is never a tech company, it's an advertisement company. Facing DOJ lawsuits, accusation of monopolies, retaliation from tariffs and trade wars due to US's huge service side surplus, cooling AI-related sentiment. Breaking up the company means no more cross-selling opportunities. All signs are bad.


TOS2
post Apr 21 2025, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Apr 21 2025, 04:41 PM)
i think i pick one of your fav stock at the time jnj for comparison... i didnt wanna plot it just now since it look quite depressing... lol... but i remember you bought it in one of the big dip... so ok lah... hahaha...

yeah bro Hansel said you got a gf liao... he is in sg this week... yall plan to meet up?
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Ah JNJ stock sold long time ago. Management too obsessed with M&A and not focusing on drug development... haiz... laugh.gif

Hansel if you are in SG can let me know. I am in SG today and tomorrow. Will fly back to Penang this Wednesday afternoon.
TOS2
post May 19 2025, 08:11 PM

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QUOTE(lola88 @ May 18 2025, 07:45 PM)
Hi just wondering why VOO instead of the Total World ETF with QQQM? I am asking because I have been buying QQQM and CSPX too. But am contemplating to stop SP 500 and buy Total world instead because of the higher overlap of companies btwn SP500 and Nasdaq. And just in case US doesn’t do well anymore
Would like to know your thoughts.
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Hi lola, long time didn't talk. smile.gif

You are right, total world ETF is more comprehensive and more "global" compared to VOO or QQQM. I don't buy total world ETF because:

1. VOO and QQQM are so-called "full replication" ETF. The ETF hold all stocks in the index exactly at a 1 to 1 ratio. Due to the large number of stocks in total world ETF and the high cost of trading in most non-US/non-liquid markets, most (if not all) ETFs will only selectively sample some of the more liquid stocks to hold instead of buying everything in a 1 to 1 manner with respect to the index the ETF is referencing. This is sometime called "smart sampling, although I don't think it's smart at all laugh.gif" or more officially, "selective sampling".

This is not an issue because the cost of trading illiquid stocks outweigh the benefits of holding everything. The stocks are illiquid anyway, price rarely move... And if they move, you won't be able to buy/sell easily with a large fund size without people in the market noticing...

But for me, I prefer a lower index tracking error, so I stick to VOO/QQQM. If you really like, VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF)'s expense ratio is as low as 0.06% p.a., but it's twice that of VOO (at 0.03% p.a.).

----------------------------

2. Total world ETF can be subject to manipulation... Think about it. VT trades during US hours. But VT covers stocks like TSMC (2330 TW) which is listed in Taiwan. Obviously, Taiwanese market closes when US market is open. How does an investor value VT when about 30% ish of the underlying stocks are not trading and hence no market price is available?

The amount of back-end bookkeeping required to maintain a global ETF, adhering to so many countries and jurisdictions laws and regulations, all eat into an investor's cost. VT manage to keep it to about 0.06% p.a., pretty remarkable, though I must admit.

I personally adopt a VOO + QQQM + selective non US stocks (for me: TSMC, SG Bank stocks and Hermes or any mega/big caps with net cash positions and low leverage) approach for easier investment management. That way, you just need to monitor very few companies and yet you can earn decent market-like returns without bearing a lot of ETF-related risks. You also get global diversification at the same time, although the bets on the selective few companies can be quite large. More importantly, the stocks trade at their respective home market's trading hours, you get high liquidity during those time. Easier to buy/sell.

To each and his own lah, your mileage may vary from mine. What I do agree is that VOO and QQQM do overlap, especially in the tech and semiconductor space. So these days I top up VOO only during crashes and leave QQQM as it is. I will need a much bigger discount on QQQM before I enter.

I am a long term investor, but if you are a trader and just need a quick way to gain exposure to world stocks as a whole, you definitely can consider VT or any global ETF. High frequency traders, hedge funds or those who need to hedge their global stock position will freqently use ETF to do so, to the point of driving the ETF price above their NAV price (which is point 2 I mentioned earlier... how do you value something that doesn't have an active price listing?), see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...me-dislocations and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...on-tariff-jolts

Hope that helps. Happy investing. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by TOS2: May 19 2025, 08:19 PM
TOS2
post May 30 2025, 09:37 AM

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Section 899 is all over the news. Your dividends from US stocks will be taxed a further 5% per year for the next 4 years. And for the first time, treasuries earnings will be taxed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...ll-street-angst

https://www.ft.com/content/b400009a-9a0e-4e...ed-2a25c2de0d8f

https://www.economist.com/united-states/202...igners-for-cash
TOS2
post Jun 1 2025, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 1 2025, 03:02 PM)
Thank you, bro TOS2 for this update. More taxes then for divvies earned in The US. More investors will shift to SG divvy ctrs after this.
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Yea, bad news bro.. Time to offload my VOO... QQQM... and sell off even my short term US T-bills parking at IBKR...

Donald Trump is really wrecking his own country's almighty currency position...
TOS2
post Jul 18 2025, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jul 17 2025, 09:47 PM)
I have Tesla. Tesla is one of those that I have 2x. Hodl though up and downs.
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At this point, I have to say something.

Warning to retail investors: leveraged ETFs (or other ETPs, exchange traded products) are NOT meant for long-term holding.

Simple case: a drop of 50% of the underlying stock will wipe out your entire investment capital for a 2x leveraged product. And even if say TSLA rebound by 50% after dropping 50% earlier, your return is still 0 because ZERO multiply by anything is ZERO. (Remember, your capital has been wiped out earlier with the 50% plunge for a 2x product.)

Please strictly restrict 2x, 3x and other leveraged products to short-term trading ONLY, which in theory should last for no more than a day.

Just a public service announcement for the uninformed.

Further reading:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/billi...share_permalink

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/how-b...share_permalink

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-3x-etf-shows...share_permalink

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/etfs/...ks-expert-says/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-break...-211500441.html

QUOTE
That underperformance highlights one of the persistent issues with leveraged ETFs: daily rebalancing decay. These products reset their exposure every day, which can lead to compounding losses (or gains) that diverge meaningfully from the underlying stock, especially during periods of volatility. Even if you get the direction of the trade right, timing and path matter a lot.


https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/why...aged-etfs-decay
TOS2
post Jul 18 2025, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jul 18 2025, 07:30 PM)
I don't use leverage ETF. So if 2x or 4x really means 2x or 4x. Not because of leverage.
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Ok, your writing sounds like you are using 2x leverage. Since you mean you earned 200% return on TSLA, fine, no further comment. smile.gif
TOS2
post Oct 14 2025, 10:18 PM

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Haven't posted here for eons. Here's something to read for leveraged ETF holders: https://www.ft.com/content/f34c6b4c-f9d7-43...56-bdba477b33fd

Use a paywall bypass if needed.

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