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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Ramjade
post May 28 2022, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ May 28 2022, 10:01 AM)
Forgot to mention, I also bought one tech counter this year, MSFT at 270. I already own AAPL (currently + 5%), TSMC(-15%) and NVDA(-9%) late last year. 

In the next bear selldown, maybe will load up more MSFT and initiate some holdings in AMD, but I will need them to be very cheap.

Looking at EDA tools too. Cadance Design systems and Synopsys. They are long-term oligopolies. 

user posted image

user posted image

Can watch this video if you want to know more about semiconductor EDA.


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What happen to buying only companies which have dividend only or "value only"? I thought you don't touch tech or semi conductors or companies which don't pay dividends?

This post has been edited by Ramjade: May 28 2022, 11:51 PM
Ramjade
post May 29 2022, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(esyap @ May 29 2022, 11:21 AM)
I sub Adam Khoo's u Tube and he is quite conservative even wen trading options. Bro mind to share the Telegram group that follow/share AK info/portfolio? I only follow his Piranha Profits Telegram. Thank
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You already follow this pirahna profits telegram. I think he shared everything inside there right?
That's why it's conservative hence people doubt him. Lol. Sometimes it's the simple stuff which is all we neede.

What I get is just small bits of people sharing. I quit don't know how many options group already. Left only my options group with Singaporean investor inside.

QUOTE(TOS @ May 29 2022, 11:43 AM)
AAPL, MSFT, TSMC all pay dividends.

I didn't say I only touch value stuffs. Valuations are subjective after all. Nor did I say you strictly buy tech counters only...

Anyway, library still not open. Need to wait till 1 pm. Flight check-in completed. rclxm9.gif
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Amd don't. tongue.gif
Nvida dividend is peanuts tongue.gif

Ramjade
post May 29 2022, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ May 29 2022, 11:59 AM)
If the company uses its earnings and reinvest it in businesses which pay higher returns then what the market requires when holding the stocks via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), then it is still value-creative to shareholders. Otherwise, the company should pay out its earnings in the form of dividends or buy-back shares and return capital to its shareholders.
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Welcome to the club. Hopefully you will see that tech and semi conductors are superior to s-reits and your "value stocks" like I did. biggrin.gif

(That's why I am not going back to those stuff)

This post has been edited by Ramjade: May 29 2022, 12:08 PM
Ramjade
post May 29 2022, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ May 29 2022, 12:36 PM)
I don't think the way you consider companies of one "club" to be better than those in the other "club" is correct. I posted this in the IB thread yesterday. Pretty much what I want to say.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Companies from each "club" has its own merits. Growth stocks are built on the future earnings prospects. When the prospects are gone or investors realize they are not true, the repricing of risk can make the price correction like falling off the cliff, as some have experienced year-to-date. Low valuation counters, on the other hand, have slower growth yet they have steady earnings and often have lower-than-market beta (<1). They play important roles in moderating your stock portfolio risk (especially beta).

Some investors just cannot endure the stress and high volatility, so they opt for low-beta portfolio; some choose the market portfolio (beta = 1); still some others, like you, prefer high beta ones. There is no right or wrong here, merely investors' preference. 

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You like to compare SG with US counters. Over the past decades, US keeps printing money and boost their local markets whereas SG does not. Also, S-REITs are rent collection vehicles. The cash flow is stable and can be priced with minimal fluctuations. The assets that generate these cash flows are tangible. US tech counters' valuations are boosted heavily by intangible assets which are harder to value and subject to lots of manipulations (the "Tax Haven Ireland" book details these manipulations). These numbers may well be "made-up". We never know unless you are the treasurer and controller of the companies or you audit their books in great detail.  

It may be true that a lot of tech counters have lots of cash (net-cash), but still they are stuck in overseas tax havens. You can't access them with ease. If I am a rational investor, I would pre-book some loses from the potential tax audits and fines if these billions of cash were to be moved onshore for corporate-related matters. Already you have seen Apple involved in the Double Irish scandal and almost have to pay back 13 billion euros (if not for the last-minute ruling in favour of AAPL).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Irish_arrangement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ireland_v_Commission

So, the tech/growth stock valuations are distorted to some extent. We can continue to talk about GAAP/no-GAAP earnings metrics are its influence on stock valuations (guess why stock-based compensation are added back in "adjusted" earnings). But I will leave it here.
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I look at gross margin, net margin, cost of sales, free cash flow, cash to debt ratio, and how much does smga increase every year, how much topline flows down to bottomline.

So far I like what I see about us market va what I see in other market. It's not about money printing. It's about how quality is the company.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: May 29 2022, 12:56 PM
Ramjade
post May 29 2022, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ May 29 2022, 01:00 PM)
Yes, those metrics matter. But money printing alters the market's risk-free rate pricing. In the past the Fed only controls the short-tenure risk-free rate while the long-term rates are subject to market force. Now the Fed controls all tenures, long and short.

You might want to think about social cost too. Profits coming from lobbying DC senators for lax regulations and scrutiny on M&A rather than R&D while depriving the middle class of real income growth does not make the company any stronger. wink.gif These stuffs and nuances don't reflect immediately on the company's financial statements.

There are lots of dimensions to look at.
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I am not a fan of money printing but those companies I invest in doesn't need money printing from feds to keep them alive. So even without the feds, they will do well

If M&A is lax, Nvidia ARM acquisition would have gone through. It did not. Just looks at Glassdoor review and you will see majority of the tech and semi conductor companies is a good place to work. If your employees are happy you are doing something right for them. Nvidia is one company where people get hired, they don't want to go anywhere else (based off YouTube review when they review Nvidia stock). Same with Google.

The cash flow of tech and semi conductors (at least I am invested in are) are stronger than reits as they don't need to care about interest rate. Not to mentiond some counters have net revenue retention rates are 100% above.

Reits are subjected to interest rate and economy.


Ramjade
post May 30 2022, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ May 30 2022, 07:34 AM)
There you go again. That's why you piss hansel off.
Go tell Warren Buffet while you are at it.
Everyone's risk profile is different, to which you acknowledged that. And here you are giving an umbrella statement of techs are better than SRETs , blah blah.
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He investing in high yield debts/junk bonds and all I am just doing is selling covered call and selling covered put and he said I am doing risky stuff. I think his stuff more risky. Pot calling the kettle black. Lol.

I stand by what I said. Options accelerated my plans by like 10-20 years. That's a huge leap in time. I am seeing the results in real time. Maybe he cannot accept it that I found a shortcut.

Well I will be sticking with what works for me. I know I will piss people off but you can't please everyone. We do what we think is best for our money and our life. smile.gif

Ramjade
post May 30 2022, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ May 30 2022, 09:38 AM)
agree.. growth stocks is nice if you still have 20-30 years time to your lifespan..

once you reach 60 years old? will it still be attractive to you? What if a market crash happens right when you fell ill at 65 and need the money for medical treatment or simply wanna go to vacation for the last remaining years of your life? If at 55 to 60 you retire already, will rely on your savings / remaining money even more.

when we grow older need to reduce exposure to such risky stocks or ETF. Ratio for them need to reduce according to one's age.
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You do know I intend to live off cash flow right? I don't intend to touch the capital at all. So market crash or what so ever won't affect me. Why? Cause good or bad times, my options will give me the cash flow to survive.

Real life eg. My monthly options income have exceeded my real life monthly income for months already. Not a one time thing. I can actually stop working now itself but I am still working to get a bigger margin of safety. Yes even when market is selling off recently. That's was I was amaze. I am still am to generate more than my monthly salary via options.
I wouldn't be where I am if I had depend on dividend investing.

I told you, I am not scared of market crash. I welcomed it. That's why when market becomes red like recently, I will always be a buyer.

Er I don't follow traditional finance stuff to reduce to less risky stuff the older you gets. I buy and hold quality companies.

I quote a blogger. You want to invest in debt and IOU of the company or you want to invest in the company? (ASSI)

"I don't follow the traditional mindset of seling of stocks to reduce risk as you age" Mr tako escape.

I quote a YouTuber, "buy and hold quality companies." "I have been holdig onto Nvidia since the 30s pre spit, I have been holding onto microsoft and my yield on cost is 6-7%p.a currently"."Never bet against the US economy or quality if US companies." These are some of his words. Not mine (Mr fired up wealth).

"Buy and holding quality companies that are increasing dividends year on year. By holding on to quality companies that increase divdend at faster rate than inflation, you will outrun inflation" (ppcian)

Can't remember their exact words but something like that.

I follow examples by real life people and not what's put out by wall Street or textbook. That's why my ways are considered unorthodox.

QUOTE(prophetjul @ May 30 2022, 09:51 AM)
Nope.
Here you are pissing on SREITs with your lovely tech growth stocks.

No one gives a toss on your success by pissing on others. Get that?

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That's why I stop. We can continue in options thread (but he didn't want to cont). I already said enough talking about it and he push back. So I just push back and decided to stop there and then.

Btw it's the truth. Tech + semis + some other us companies > s-reits anytime anyday. For me at least. That's why I am not going back.

I expected that. But it's ok.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: May 30 2022, 10:13 AM
Ramjade
post May 31 2022, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ May 30 2022, 09:44 PM)
I invest in everything that you are investing in,... and more,... BUT the difference between you and I is : you put down others and use irresponsible statements which might hurt others. I don't.
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I only share what works for me. And so far it works marvelously. And it's not that hard nor do you need to get large amount of capital to generate the same returns vs dividends.

The difference is you assume eveyone got huge capital to do what you do. Like I said come down to earth and smell the grass bro. I show ways which works for ordinary folks like me earning only measly RM5k/month. Ways which bypass priority/private banking privileges which ordinary folks like me will never have access to so that ordinary folks is not at a disadvantage.
Ramjade
post Jun 1 2022, 05:12 AM

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The reply is going to be super long. Later I reply nicely one by one once on pc. Lol

Short reply.
I posted examples of my losses in the options thread. I think 3 examples.

I only do options on stocks I want to buy and what I already owned.
That have always been my rule and that never change.

You need to pay for quality. Cannot be stingy. Doing options on stuff like Microsoft, Nvidia, amd, tsmc, Adobe is risky/gamble??? You got to be joking. FYI, I don't gamble. Never have and never will. By selling options, you are the insurance writer, the casino house. And insurance and casino house always in over the long term. Statistically the odds are always in favour of the insurance and the casino house.

To generate a significant amount of cash flow from dividend investing Vs using options, one will need higher capital. Higher capital = hard for ordinary folks to achieve. The word here is significant so that you can retire when passive income >= salary.
Eg A RM30k p.a in dividends Vs options premium. One will need higher capital for Rm30k in dividends Vs using options.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 1 2022, 05:17 AM
Ramjade
post Jun 1 2022, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jun 1 2022, 09:05 AM)
wah these stocks not cheap bro.. means you have 100 stocks of them each? That would require 18-50k+ USD just to own them to do covered options.  sweat.gif
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I sold all my dividend stocks do to options. So you think? 7 years+ of money. I domt have full money to be honest Some I use margin without cash position becoming negative.
Like I said it's ok to use margin. Just don't over do it.

Like buying a house. You can't afford to pay one lump sum for the house right? Same thing? Use margin as collateral and sell covered put. If assign good. If not assign, use the premium to slowly buy 1 share at a time. If your cash still positive, no interest will be charged. biggrin.gif

Of course the dividend counter I got at 15%p.a I still hold on.

QUOTE(Toku @ Jun 1 2022, 09:49 AM)
I was hoping one day I could sell covered call on GOOGL. Look at the premium  drool.gif
But the capital required to hold GOOGL stock is just too high. I guess only a multi millionaire could do this. And if I am a multi millionaire, do I still fancy this kind of investment? Probably not. May be I will be ok with putting money in FD to get 2% and live my life without worry.

Money is just a tool for you to enjoy life. Just like the dog wagging its tail, not the tail wagging the dog. Do not be greedy. Investing/gambling decision driven by greed often do not end well. Wall street aka smart money knows how to attack ordinary people's weakness. A day of market rebounce and we are FOMO...TINA...

Back to the topic of dividend vs option premium debate, why must we choose only one? We can dabble in both as long as we have a balance portfolio that hold multiple class of assets and limit each position to limit risk of 'just in case' the gamble goes in the opposite way.
I can see some good case of Ramjade's option way which is when you want to buy a stock, you prepare the capital for it, you can sell a put at the price you want to buy instead of setting a limit order. This way, the risk is the stock may not be assigned to you but you still get the premium. If the stock is assigned to you, even better, because the cost of your stock will be lower = strike price (price you willing to pay to buy the stock) - premium you received.
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Actually Tesla is better choice for options. Their premium is way better than Google anytime anyday. Not to mention it's cheaper at 750 Vs 2k.

Why do you think I want to collect 5 Google shares? Simple. I want to do covered calls on them once they split. That way Google in my portfolio will be generating cashflow for me every week.

Why? Simple. Efficient money allocation. Yes you can do both. But for people like me who earn peanuts to generate huge amount of money via dividends you need huge capital. Rather impossible no matter how I count it. Unless you do like 10-15%p.a

In this market only stuff which give you that kind of dividndss are either junk bonds, stuff which invest in junk bonds, some dubious mortgage stuff. No way I am touching those stuff.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 1 2022, 10:42 AM
Ramjade
post Jun 1 2022, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 1 2022, 10:55 AM)
At least you are more tactful, polite and NOT insinuating others in the above reply. This is an improvement. Hoped this behaviour of yours stays.

Let me think how to answer you in a productive way.

Your eg above is RIGHT ! Let me cfm this first, But,... the question becomes,... how many times can you repeat this ? Emm,... I do both,... if you ask me to do one only,... I'd prefer to do dividend-investing and protect my capital till I've accumulated enough before I start to go into Options.

And HEY BRO,..... I just remembered,...you also started with dividend-investing, remember ? You followed my guidance a few years ago ??????!!!!!??????? Then you accumulated enough capital,... and now you are into Options with accumulated funds FROM DIVIDEND-INVESTING to buy the ctrs for your Options.

vmad.gif

Why talk so much today abt Options ONLY ?

Ok,... now I gotta go,... I'm trying to predict how much will the RBA hike next Tuesday. Hse prices have started dropping in Australia since 2020.... Want to buy a hse with a lake if possible. Now my SGD stronger than AUD and keeps getting stronger,... Majulah,...Singapura,....

Good luck to all investors in US instruments,...
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I switched after finding out about options cause the road to FIRE is impossible with dividends no matter how I count with that peanut salary of mine.

Er don't know how many times.but so far as mentioned as option seller, the odds will always be in your favour. I will become options buyer if US market repeat a 2008..

However the road seems very possible/doable with options as proven in the amount of money collected in the past 1 year (my options income already more than my 12 months salary and more than my dividend income). Calculations wise, it's now a realistic goal (road to FAT FIRE Vs last time where even LEAN FIRE is impossible). Slow and steady weekly grind. Don't be greedy.

Hope you get your house. For me I will wait. Fed doing some hocus pocus wait for them to continue hiking rate. Will push down price of house.


Ramjade
post Jun 2 2022, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(Lon3Rang3r00 @ Jun 1 2022, 12:39 PM)
I thought everyone start with dividend investing before entering US Market? I still kept majority of my portfolio on bursa dividend stock. Then playing options to earn some along the way while also buying other growth stock. If really Tesla split 1:20 then I can play options with Tesla. As of now slowly accumulate Tesla share.
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I had a teacher (Singaporean guy, don't know who he is) from telegram group. He's the one who showed me about growth investing. He started like don't know how many years back. Way, way before covid. He didn't start with dividend. He do growth straight away as his prof at uni said don't bother with dividend investing. Not my words. His words. Anyway he MIA already. Lol
Ramjade
post Jun 2 2022, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jun 2 2022, 04:04 PM)
Reason becuz I also got ETF and Unit Trust and those top holdings already cover those like TSMC, Alibaba etc. Why for AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN etc I still buy individual US stock is becuz those are exceptional it is worthwhile to also invest in them direct besides getting indirectly invested via ETF, Unit Trust. For individual US stock due to high share price I look so long for low capital broker until now finally found Webull fractional shares. I intend to slowly accumulate since it is 0 comm fees per trade.
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TD also zero but I don't think they have fractional shares.
Ramjade
post Jun 2 2022, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jun 2 2022, 05:18 PM)
Yes I check before. Their account opening process super long and their per withdrawal request is 25 wow! Which is why I keep searching until Webull Spore appear. Hope you also onto Webull Spore soon and share.
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No la. I got too many brokerage already. Just sticking with IBKR and tiger (for real time.data)
Ramjade
post Jun 2 2022, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jun 2 2022, 07:35 PM)
New SEC ads. kena shot.  biggrin.gif

Aim at GameStop?


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See the wsb reverse video to SEC.
Ramjade
post Jun 4 2022, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jun 4 2022, 11:38 AM)
I think "market timing iis mpossible" is a myth perpetuated by asset managers who want to keep their AUM based management fees.

For marker timing to work, one does not need to perfectly time the bottom or the top. One doesn't have to be accurate all the time as well.

For me the most important thing for market timing is to avoid the worst impact of big drawdowns (negative performance). Big drawdowns have very severe impact to long term portfolio building.

Like a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover and how long will that take?

It's probably ok for a young investor with not much assets to lose say 40-50% of his portfolio. But it's definitely fatal for more uncle investors.
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You cannot time the bottom correctly. But you can buy near the bottom.
So moral of the story once something reaches a point where you think got enough discount. Just buy it. It may drop further after that.
Ramjade
post Jun 13 2022, 08:15 AM

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QUOTE(pub_yu @ Jun 13 2022, 01:21 AM)
More like a slow boiling water type of downtrend I reckon  hmm.gif Unless a trigger event that will speed up the crippling effect
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Good. More time to accumulate.
Ramjade
post Jun 13 2022, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(Lon3Rang3r00 @ Jun 13 2022, 12:54 PM)
I know what to buy, but problem is when? Hahahaha I don't want buy le drop another 15% but I also scare if I wait it bounce 15%
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Set a price target you want to buy. With ibkr cost of only usd0.35/transaction, you can buy 1-2 shares and the more it fall, the more you buy.
Ramjade
post Jun 14 2022, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(rotloi @ Jun 13 2022, 10:42 PM)
All so rich I trade using rakuten . Don't know worth or not
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Poor people use ibkr. There's no minimum unlike last time need to maintain usd100k.

Ibkr is way cheaper than rakuten.
Ramjade
post Jun 16 2022, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(umboy @ Jun 15 2022, 06:50 PM)
Hope it will be different next time
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This time is different is a very dangerous word. Don't wait. If you wait, you will never change. I change once I have rm10k.

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