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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Jun 21 2019, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(SmartKID @ Jun 20 2019, 11:48 PM)
Do anyone here heard that a company that called QMIS Financial group from Malaysia, they are now planning to get listed on NASDAQ, and offering preference share RM4.50 per share for the local retail investors. Anyone heard about it ? is it a scam ?..

Thank you.
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Never heard of them but there is an investor alert on their website:

QUOTE

zacknistelrooy
post Jun 21 2019, 12:56 AM

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Slack shares surge 50% over reference price

Anyone punting on Slack?
zacknistelrooy
post Jun 25 2019, 02:39 PM

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Three Chinese banks face U.S. action in North Korean sanctions probe: Washington Post
zacknistelrooy
post Jun 25 2019, 06:46 PM

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For the Biotech bulls

AbbVie Nears Deal to Buy Allergan for More Than $60 Billion
QUOTE
AbbVie Inc. ABBV -0.42% is nearing a deal to buy Allergan AGN -0.95% PLC for more than $60 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, as two big drugmakers bet a combination will deliver new sources of growth they have struggled to find on their own.

The takeover, worth $188 a share in cash and stock, is expected to be announced later Tuesday, the people said. The price, mainly to be paid in cash, represents a 45% premium over Allergan’s closing share price Monday of $129.57. If not for a surge in the shares in recent days on expectations for a breakup of the company, the premium would be even bigger.


Update

AbbVie to Acquire Allergan in Transformative Move for Both Companies

QUOTE
Allergan Shareholders will receive 0.8660 AbbVie Shares and $120.30 in cash for each Allergan Share, for a total consideration of $188.24 per Allergan Share



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jun 25 2019, 06:52 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jun 26 2019, 12:47 AM

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Dow drops 100 points after Fed’s Bullard says a half-point rate cut would be overdoing it

The market wasn't even pricing a 50 basis point cut two weeks ago and now it is angry they aren't going to get one.
zacknistelrooy
post Jun 26 2019, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 26 2019, 01:46 PM)
Are you saying US government couldn't intervene in USD forex rate?
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U.S. Department of the Treasury job isn't to manage the US dollar but the US economy

Plus if the us dollar is indeed devalued then it will be great for emerging markets but it is unlikely unless US doesn't mind an inflation spike.

The emerging markets topped out near the chart bottom in 18

They are going to have to deal with the spike in gasoline and the the tariff cost.

Easiest way is to maintain a strong dollar

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zacknistelrooy
post Jul 3 2019, 05:22 PM

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Pre market all time high for S&P 500 even with mixed news and half day today

HP, Dell, other tech firms plan to shift production out of China-Nikkei

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jul 3 2019, 05:23 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 3 2019, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(CharmaineLee80 @ Jul 3 2019, 05:32 PM)
Is this possible ? are you referred to manufacturing or office (company)?
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For now based on the reports it seems for manufacturing.

They have been other companies who supposedly are doing it too

US earnings season starts soon and the commentary from the companies will be key.

All of these could easily be PR stunts or to get better rates in China.


zacknistelrooy
post Jul 3 2019, 08:29 PM

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Job creation has another rough month in June as private payrolls rise by just 102,000

Another below par economic indicator

Small biz was weak

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zacknistelrooy
post Jul 4 2019, 01:05 AM

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S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq close at record highs amid expectations for the Fed to lower rates

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF also closed at an all time high
Been a broad base rally

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jul 4 2019, 01:06 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 4 2019, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(mapeyeo1 @ Jul 4 2019, 10:53 AM)
If lets say ppl dont expect US Fed to lower the rate in December, will there be a market sell off?
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Market is pricing at least 2 to 3 cuts this year for now.
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For now only a recession or worsening trade war is going to stop this.
There will always be a black swan event but that is difficult to predict so best to hedge your bets
The VIX is back at 12.57 and option premium aren't expensive now

Do note that fund mangers at least in the US have been paring their equity holdings and moving into bonds but if the US markets goes parabolic like in Jan 2018 then we are in for another top
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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 4 2019, 07:09 PM)
The longer they hold, the harder when fall.

Just like 08, hold hold hold lol kaboom juga.

But every crisis happen have its own different reason. Let see this time how is it.
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Yup it is madness out there
Especially Europe even after so much easy money policies it is still lagging

German 10 year bund is now at the deposit rate for ECB (-0.40%)

QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jul 4 2019, 08:21 PM)
Agreed, wonder how long market euphoria, ATH yesterday as well
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Earnings season starts in two weeks so that will be one of the telltale signs.

In other news Europe wants to go all out
ECB needs to provide more stimulus to live up to mandate - Rehn
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 5 2019, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(mapeyeo1 @ Jul 4 2019, 09:53 PM)
[Do note that fund mangers at least in the US have been paring their equity holdings and moving into bonds but if the US markets goes parabolic like in Jan 2018 then we are in for another top
Yup it is madness out there
Especially Europe even after so much easy money policies it is still lagging

I read the book by Ray Dalio and it talks about deleveraging, which illustrates that quantitative easing will only help out to a certain extent and after that no effect can be seen.
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Yeah, his hedge fund has been performing quite well.
He also has solid views on the economic and most of his views make sense but the issue like it as always been like the famous quote for investors "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

This blog may also interest you but it is a long read:
The Psychology of Money


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 4 2019, 10:01 PM)
Every crisis is precede by a bubble, what is the bubble this time? u.s. corporate debts? china?
Easy money and low interest rate doesn't mean people will spend or invest e.g. japan. immediate market uncertainty is dt's twitter.
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True but Japan isn't a great example
They have had multiple issues since the 90's (Lost decade) and they have not had much inflation for 30 years
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If they founded the likes of Alibaba, JD and Tencent then they would probably be in a different place
Europe right now is heading into the same issue as Japan

QUOTE(oOoproz @ Jul 5 2019, 12:21 PM)
Great sharing, but don't forget DT is trying to add in new member to FED, if it happens, market will just follow his twitter too, by that time he can do whatever he wants with the market
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Those two won't make a huge difference in the long term unless he manages to replace the FED chair
In the end the economy will dictate their moves no matter how much DT tries to think otherwise
Doves and Hawks

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jul 5 2019, 07:41 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 6 2019, 12:21 AM

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CNBC's full interview with Trump Fed nominee Judy Shelton

Updated Fed probabilities
Rate cut this month a certainty now
September has went up too
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zacknistelrooy
post Jul 6 2019, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2019, 01:03 PM)
That's what I heard on the financial media. We all know what's an insurance is, something that we need
to cover losses in case of a disaster.

The market is expecting the Fed to provide a rate cut now (like an insurance) because it wants a preventative measure to avoid a recession sometime in the future but now this is an unlikely event given strong employment data.

This behavior will juice things up resulting in little ammo left when the real disaster hit.
Yes, it is crazy.. fundamental goes out for now b'coz good news is bad news.

Another problem is the US president himself is blaming the Fed for lackluster economic growth when infact his own trade policy is causing the problem.

So, if interest rate cut really happens, and equities fly up, I think we should sell into the rally and sit on cash until the equities comes back down from stratosphere.   biggrin.gif
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The FED is in a bind right now
Literally everyone around the world is in easing mode
Even UK with inflation at 2% wants to cut rates

In actual fact the US has still been in tightening mode right up till last week too:
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They have been reducing their balance sheet since early last year

In the end of the day do we expect the Fed to ignore the bond markets
This week another indicator just signal more problems
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Lets see what the other economic indicators this month indicate
Fed minutes is next week too
They should not have increased rates in December especially when they are reducing their balance sheet and DT policies are causing havoc to everything

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jul 6 2019, 04:04 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 7 2019, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 7 2019, 09:09 AM)
If they have been reducing balance sheet, shouldn’t the spread between 30 year and fed funds increase as long term rates go up?
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Theoretically yes but ultimately global yields matter too and if they can't catch a break then long term rates will have a tough time going up

Also they haven't been too aggressive with their balance sheet reduction (40B on average so far per month)

The chart below shows the the US yield vs German yield
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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jul 7 2019, 05:45 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 9 2019, 12:48 AM

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Morgan Stanley downgrades global stocks: Weak growth to trump easier monetary policy

Trying to overshadow DB
zacknistelrooy
post Jul 9 2019, 06:07 PM

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BASF Profit Warning Drags Down Shares of Rival Chemical Makers

Key takeaway
QUOTE
Global industrial production declined about 6% in the first half, according to BASF, and twice as much in China, the world’s biggest auto market. Bad weather hurt North America’s agriculture sector, leading to lower demand for crop protection products. Sales will fall slightly in 2019, down from a prior expectation of growth of 1% to 5%, and BASF still expects to cut 6,000 positions by the end of next year, it said in a statement.

Contrary to its expectations last year, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China have not eased, the company said. That has slowed decision-making and investments in key markets including the Asian country. BASF doesn’t see the situation improving in the second half of 2019.

zacknistelrooy
post Oct 6 2019, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 6 2019, 04:27 PM)
Exchange need to make $ to sustain. Where and how they derived their income?
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Net interest revenue
They needed to react as JPM has been quietly offering free trades and even options to some and generally where the industry has been moving.

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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Oct 6 2019, 06:06 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 8 2020, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 7 2020, 09:04 PM)
I just went into the US stock market un June last year. My current portfolio of stocks are as follows::

1) Luckin Coffee
2) Phillips66
3) Bristol Myers Squibb
4) Microsoft
5) Wallgreens
7) Exxon Mobil
8) Momo
9) NextEra Energy

Any suggestions on stock which i should consider for 2020?
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Is there a reason you bought Walgreens maybe other than the dividend?

Also is there a reason you chose Exxon over Chevron or Total?


Goldman is something you can look as they are hosting their first investor day this month and restructuring their biz

It took a while for Citi to get away from their under performance and I believe Goldman is going through the same process and once they do, the chances of outperforming the XLF will be possible.

If you don't like banks or only want the best in class then JPM or Blackstone is something you can look at if you believe global growth will rebound this year.
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 17 2020, 11:51 PM

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For every bearish chart there is a bullish chart

Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent


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Put Call ratio that is supposedly a short term sell signal but the red lines show the amount of times it has touch dangerous levels

Another call indicator that is showing signs of problems but might take a while before it can correct

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The markets and a fair bit of stocks have been sideways for nearly 2 years before the rally in October

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Don't fight the fed and as long as they keep growing the balance sheet one should not just stop investing and have good risk management while following their respective goals.

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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Jan 17 2020, 11:52 PM

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