Donald Trump doesn’t talk a lot about Syria, except to say it’s screwed up. He likes to keep things simple, after all, and his great talent lies in confirming prejudices, not confusing them

but its logic does fit in with the politics of a man who admires leaders with tough-guy credentials like Russian President Vladimir Putin. And how does Putin play the Syrian game?

The Players and Stakes:  The Syrian Civil War has global implications.  What began in 2011 as a local protest against the Assad regime’s casual brutality has grown into an existential threat to America’s post-Cold War dominance.  The conflict is in its fifth year, has killed upwards of 200,000 people and displaced millions more.  Multiple factions—sectarian, secular, and mercenary

Fleeing the terror, refugees have sought shelter in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, or moved on to Europe where their unwelcome presence is contributing to tensions among EU member states.  Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey each back their proxies in a bid to mold Syria in their image

Russia has chosen to emerge from its post-Soviet doldrums by flexing its military muscle in support of a longtime client, the Assad regime

All moves are calculated risks, so let’s look at them in the language of a casino, which the American people know you’ve mastered:

Salafi Blackjack:  Backing the rebels with military and economic aid, while actively targeting the Assad regime would keep America aligned with traditional allies, the Gulf monarchies and Turkey, and has the greatest continuity with the existing policy of building a viable alternative to the Assad Regime

The “deck” is made up of disparate rebel factions, many of dubious value, and others, such as the Nusra Front and the Islamic State (ISIS), are self-declared enemies of America

This option also carries the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia

Lastly, backing the Sunni proxies of Saudi Arabia and Turkey would likely require the U.S. to abandon the Syrian Kurds as a precondition for Turkey’s cooperation

Alawite Hold’em:  Siding with the regime is the fastest way to end the conflict and thereby bring an end to both the mass killings and to stem the flow of refugees into Europe.  However, it also would be guaranteed to completely alienate the Gulf States and Turkey

As of mid-2016 military momentum had swung in favor of the regime, largely due to the direct intervention of Russian military forces.  While the Assad Alawite minority regime is no friend to the United States, it is also an enemy of the Sunni extremists, such as ISIS

Should the United Sates side with the regime, many of the non-Sunni minorities, such as the Kurds and the Christians, would likely rally around the government due to their distrust of the Salafists

The primary risk with this scenario is to America’s reputation as an enduring partner of the Gulf monarchies and Turkey.  In the most extreme case, Turkey might even withdraw from NATO

The last major downside of this policy would be the ethical dilemma of backing a regime which has killed hundreds of thousands of its own citizens

Walk Away:  The only way to guarantee that the United States does not waste any more lives or resources in Syria is to walk away.  However, to walk away from Syria would be tantamount to walking away from the Middle Eas

For example, there is some question whether the Al Sauds would be able to maintain their grip on Saudi Arabia in an environment of low oil prices without the U.S. security umbrella.  While the Al Sauds are hardly the ideal regional partner, they are unquestionably better than the alternative of an Arabian Peninsula ruled by Salafist extremists. 

The Pacific Fleet is comprised of 3rd Fleet, headquartered in San Diego, California, and 7th Feet, headquartered in Yokosuka, Japan. Historically, the 7th Fleet took command of 3rd Fleet ships when they crossed the International Date Line westward, but on April 26, Swift reiterated his longstanding preference to expand the role of the 3rd Fleet commander in the Asia-Pacific region. In other words, he wants Vice Admiral Nora Tyson and her staff to maintain operational control over some of the ships that cross the International Date Line.

The USS Momsen, USS Decatur, and USS Spruance became the first ships to be deployed under this new arrangement on April 27.

Swift had been pushing for such a change since last September. He questioned the need for the, practically speaking, rather arbitrary administrative demarcation. The change would not require a change of headquarters or home ports, but would allow for greater cooperation between the two fleets in “areas with the greatest instability.” Swift is looking for ways to enable Tyson to “more fully employ her fleet forward.”

Swift believes that this change will allow the U.S. Navy to take fuller advantage of 3rd Fleet’s capacity and capability. Swift envisions a future where the two fleets could divide responsibility for tasks in the Asia-Pacific; for example, by having 3rd Fleet deal with the Navy’s response to a tsunami while 7th Fleet deals with earthquake relief.

Illustrious was third of the Invincible class of helicopter carriers. At 686 feet long and 22,000 tons fully loaded, the Invincibles had full-length flight decks and a ski ramp to launch Sea Harrier jump jets. Built to escort convoys across the Atlantic in a World War III scenario, the ships could carry up to a dozen Sea Harriers and ten helicopters.

Illustrious served the Royal Navy for 32 years but was retired in 2014, a victim of budget cuts. Currently moored in Portsmouth Harbor, she's been emptied out in anticipation of the sale. The ship currently displaces 17,000 tons and still has her massive twin 15-foot-diameter bronze propellers, as well as her six Rolls Royce Olympus marine gas turbine engines. The hull is described as being in "good" condition (though we all know what "good" really means on the used vehicle market). Here's a video of Illustrious conducting flight operations while on active duty:

The carrier's flat top has been demilitarized, so don't count on getting her three Goalkeeper gatling guns or her pair of 20-millimeter cannons. Or any aircraft, for that matter—the U.S. Marines bought all the Harriers for spare parts and the helicopters will find new homes on HMS Queen Elizabeth, a new carrier set to enter service in 2017.

One curious note: the Ministry of Defense intends to remove "material coatings" from the upper hull and superstructure before transferring ownership, and it warns this action will make the ship pretty darn ugly. Whatever those coatings do, the MoD doesn't want them passing into strange hands. Could it be something like an anti-radar coating, in order to reduce the ship's radar signature?

Interested parties must file with Her Majesty's Government by May 23, with a viewing scheduled in June. You're going to need a bank guarantee of $2.8 million to convince the government you're a serious player. If you win, you'll never have to convince anyone you're a player ever again

For nearly two years the town of Shaddadi in northeastern Syria was a stronghold of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL). In February, fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish and Arab militias, battled the jihadists for 10 days before liberating the city in fierce fighting, supported by anti-terror coalition airstrikes

Furthermore the level of underground fortifications varied among the hierarchy of ISIS fighters, with rookie foreign recruits being forced to hide in less secure structures, while the elite were offered well-reinforced concrete bunkers

“Its [one tunnel’s] length is about 200-300 meters. It is designed for protection against air strikes,” an SDF soldier told RT. Underground protective structures used by foreign ISIS fighters at the same time are “narrow” with just “gravel” protection against air strikes

Inside the house RT discovered hundreds of ISIS documents, including photos relating to the Iraqi army, as well as photos of members of the Syrian government. Names of hundreds of local and foreign fighters were also unearthed

Tensions are continuing to rise throughout the South China Sea as the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is expected to bring forth a ruling in the next few weeks against China’s claims over control of the majority of the territory in the region.

Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats throughout the region have started a push-back campaign in favor of China’s claims over the sea. China’s territorial claims run against similar claims made by the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia.

The following map from the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative shows how significant disputes over the region could be. China, by far, has the largest military force in the region. As such, Beijing could force its claims over the South China Sea against the wishes of the other nations involved in the dispute due to both its economic and military size.

Amman - Pretty blonde saleswomen smile as they showcase the latest rocket-propelled grenades. Paunchy Americans in rumpled suits offer 30-minute tutorials on anti-tank weapons. Ukrainians flog state-produced tanks not 50 metres from where Russians sell a “tandem warhead” designed to destroy them

The everyday collides with the extraordinary: a friendly sales pitch that ends with “and you’ll find all our bombs on our website”, or wandering over to a grandmotherly type who offers sweets and a quick tutorial on thermobaric warheads (“very effective against both fortifications and manpower”)

A gala tour of Russia’s latest for-sale arsenal, then on a few dozen steps to the Ukrainian pavilion. Turkey, too, is flogging its war-making wares – again, a discreet distance from the shiny model of a Russian Sukhoi SU-32 bomber

Politics be damned, there is money to be made

The only regional players not invited: Iran, Israel and, for the first time, Syria

The latest version – which isn’t yet on Syrian battlefields – features night-vision, all-weather capabilities and improved guidance electronics. With its scope angled out the door and up a nearby hill

Raytheon is the company responsible for bunkerising the vast majority of Jordan’s 287 miles of border with Syria and Iraq. In October 2015, the company was awarded an $18.6m contract to expand its work on the Jordan-Syria border, and just this week, Jordan's Ministry of Defence signed an agreement with the US Department of Defence to acquire Raytheon’s TOW missiles

The US-made joint light tactical vehicle (JLTV), a huge 6,400kg truck, won maker OshKosh a contract with the US military in August 2015. The JLTV is in testing and slated to go into full production soon. OshKosh calls itself “the platform mover of choice”, and by platform, they mean a weapons system like HIMARS, THAAD, TOW or Milan – all systems used by the US or its allies

“We can’t prepare a vehicle for integration with Russian systems, for example,” said OshKosh’s Laura Cresswell. But she said OshKosh would still sell JLTVs to a buyer even if it knew they were going to install Russian weapons – it just wouldn’t prepare the vehicles for mounting

Rosboronexport is the state-run exporter, and it was present with several weapons producers including Bazalt, which was debuting its RPG-30 and RPG-7 anti-tank rocket grenades

Russia is the world’s second-biggest arms exporter after the US, and according to Rosboronexport representatives, it maintains military co-operation with more than 70 countries

The wares on offer at SOFEX included the URAN-6 mine-clearing robot, debuted at Palmyra, and a new noiseless mortar system. How noiseless could they be? “Like that,” said a salesman who asked not to be named, snapping his fingers

“There’s an increased interest in the SU-32 since we began our operation in Syria,” said the salesman. “That’s why it’s here.”

Beyond the planes, mortars and RPGs, Russian manufacturers are pushing their simulator training systems – suggesting they anticipate an increased appetite for pilots in Russian planes, helicopters and armoured vehicles

The United States on Thursday delivered military hardware to Tunisia to help the North African country hit by several Islamic State group attacks secure its borders and battle terrorism.

Light aircraft, jeeps and communications systems were part of the equipment handed over at a ceremony attended by US official Amanda Dory and Tunisian Defence Minister Farhat Horchani.

Dory, the US deputy assistant secretary of defence for African affairs, said the equipment was part of a $20-million package to bolster Tunisia's military capabilities.

The Reaper is a support pole for your gun

by JOSEPH TREVITHICK

When the legendary American-born inventor Hiram Maxim designed the first modern machine gun at the end of the 19th century, he completely changed the face of war. But after more than a century of development, one thing still limits these deadly weapons — their weight.

In early May 2016, the Australian Army said it was looking at a piece of American kit that, it believed, might finally ease the burden on its light machine-gunners. Aussie troops will experiment with what is essentially a curved metal pole that they can wear like a backpack — and which could help support their machine guns.

“It’s a funny-looking contraption,” Australian Army warrant officer Nicolas Crosbie, one of the soldiers taking part in the test, commented in an official video. “I’m interested to see … when we trial it with the soldiers, what they think of it and that sort of thing.”

Advanced Accuracy Solutions makes this novel “weapon support” that it calls the Reaper. Extending up over the shooter’s shoulder, the Reaper keeps the gun steady and reduces the strain necessary to keep the weapon at the ready.

A soldier would then attach their rifle or machine gun to the end using a length of cord and a strap. Running down the length of the pole, the line extends and retracts as the user moves their gun — sort of like a retractable dog leash.

With guns weighing anywhere from 15 to 30 pounds unloaded, machine gunners’ arms are liable to get tired quickly while holding the gun on target or while standing or kneeling for long periods. The system itself adds fewer than five pounds to a soldier’s load.

“The Reaper literally allows for unlimited time patrolling with M-249 and M-240 machine guns,” Advanced Accuracy Solutions’ Jason Semple told War Is Boring in an email, referring to two gun types in U.S. military service. “The system actually allows you to patrol at the ready position, as it 100-percent removes the weight away from your arms and shoulders.”

The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) has released a new propaganda video, revealing the insights of how jihadists captured Khan Touman and Khalidiyah in southern Aleppo one week ago.

The offensive was carried out by at least 3 tanks and 2 BMP’s while TIP fighters stormed (pro-)government troops alongside fighters loyal to Jabhat al-Nusra.

The video is available here – viewer discretion i

Work on the new helicopter is proceeding at full swing. We decided to split the project in two. The demonstrator has already flown and will now be used to research technologies for increasing the rotorcraft’s flight speed to over 450 kmph,” Andrei Shibitov said.

He added that the flight speed of the new helicopter was designed to exceed that of the existing ones by an impressive 50 percent. The maximum speed of existing helicopters does not exceed 300 kmph.

Recently, one of my students asked me: Why doesn’t the U.S. stop Vladimir Putin?

He is not alone. Many wonder how Putin gets away with it again and again and again. In the past few years, Russia blitzed the country of Georgia, cyber-crushed Estonia, claimed much of the Artic as “theirs,” invaded eastern Ukraine, stole Crimea, mucked around in Syria, increased submarine patrols to Cold War levels, and is worrying eastern Europe

Last month, a Russian fighter jet did practice attack runs on an American destroyer in the Black Sea, flying so low it left a wake in the water, while in a separate incident another fighter did barrel rolls around a US RC-135 spy plane

It’s as if Putin was saying to NATO, “Hey, the Americans won’t even defend themselves. You really think they’ll defend you?”

His objective is simple: Get the U.S. out of NATO, then extend Russia’s sphere of influence to the Atlantic. If Trump is elected, I think it could happen

I’m a former private military contractor—mercenary to some—and I’m not steeped in the Pentagon mindset. I know Putin and the type of war he’s waging, and it’s not found in the textbooks of the war colleges. It’s found in fiction, which can reveal truths sometimes obscured by reality

Shadow War centers around Tom Locke, a likable albeit damaged guy. He’s a high end mercenary, working a multi-billion-dollar private military company that does things the U.S. government won’t do, or the corporate world can’t do

Shadow War is based on actual events. It pulls back the curtain on messy conflicts like the Ukraine, and explains why Putin continues to outmaneuver the West. It’s important because it won’t end with Ukraine. Putin has bigger plans

Putin wins because he’s waging a shadow war, while we are not. If we want to stop him, we need to understand how shadow wars work. Here’s what you need to know:

10 Characteristics of Shadow Wars

1.  States matter less. Today’s “great powers” aren’t just countries, they’re multinational corporations as well as the super-rich. The Fortune 500 are more powerful than most countries, most of which are fragile or failed states. Although Shadow War is an international thriller, few of the “great powers” are states. Corporations are involved in conflicts like Ukraine.

2. Mercenaries are back. This industry was dormant for centuries, and then resurrected by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, where half of America’s military personnel were contractors. Now Russia, Nigeria, the Emirates and corporations use mercenaries. Locke discovers that mercenaries are fighting on all sides of the Ukraine war, drawing out the war for profit.

3. Deep States exist. Deep States are networks of elites who can sometimes rule behind governments, across sectors, and beyond borders for their own benefit. Shadow War reveals some of the connections between Wall Street and K Street, and how national interests can be manipulated for shareholder profit. Some deny this, but it’s not new.

4.  Warriors are masked, and may not fight for states. Shadow War takes you to the frontlines of the Ukraine war. Soldiers are rare. Militias, mercenaries, criminals, spooks, and refugees litter the landscape. Sometimes it’s unclear who the enemy is.

5.  Economics can be weaponized. Shadow wars utilize all instruments of national power, not just military ones. Economics is a favorite cudgel of Putin. Forget World War II bombers. Putin turns off the gas to Europe when he doesn’t get his way, plunging the Europe into an energy crisis. What’s being fought for in Shadow War isn’t terrain, it’s energy and industry.

6.  Clandestine operations are key. In the information age, plausible deniability is more powerful than tank divisions. The Russian military could invade Ukraine outright yet Putin chooses to use mercenaries, proxy militia, and “Little Green Men“ (Russian soldiers without Russian insignia on their fatigues). How can you rally the world to fight a war that may not exist? You can’t. It’s a brilliant strategic defense by Putin.

7.  Hearts and minds don’t matter. Forget the failed counterinsurgency strategies of Iraq and Afghanistan. Sadly, shadow wars aren’t about “the people.” The fight in Ukraine isn’t a continuation of the Orange Revolution. It’s about dueling oligarchs and other things.

8.  Lie, a lot. Some of the best weapons do not fire bullets. Putin understands the power of propaganda and the fickleness of the news cycle. Even when his proxies blew up a civilian airliner, the world quickly moved on, thanks to an army of cyber trolls who misdirected, reframed, and denied the obvious.

9.  “Winning” has changed. You do not have to conquer in the traditional sense. Super technologies and battlefield triumphs guarantee nothing in a shadow war. Cunning and boldness are decisive. Tom Locke’s greatest asset is not the firepower at his fingertips (and he has a lot), but his brain.

10. People still matter most. While in the field, I learned quickly that trust between people is the difference between success and failure. But betrayal is a touchstone of shadow wars, too. What happens to Tom Locke in Shadow War is a very good introduction to the ways modern warriors must navigate in this frightening new world.

The solution? It’s time for America to fight back—but do it in the shadows. The U.S. did this during the Cold War. Now that a new Cold War may be resurgent, it’s time to fight back

Some of the smallest surface combatants in the U.S. Navy will be getting new missiles with "over the horizon" capabilities. The effort is part of a program to give the troubled Littoral Combat Ship program a major firepower boost

The Navy has announced that the USS Freedom, one of two types of the so-called Littoral Combat Ship, will be outfitted with the Norwegian-designed Naval Strike Missile. The missile will be ready for the Freedom's next deployment

Designed by Norwegian defense contractor Kongsberg, the Naval Strike Missile was designed to protect Norway from seaborne threats. The missile weighs 900 pounds with a 276 pound warhead and has a range of up to 107 miles. The missile is equipped with an imaging infra-red seeker, making it capable of identifying and attacking specific targets. For example, the ship would be able to differentiate between a destroyer and an aircraft carrier, zeroing in on the larger ship. And yes, being a Norwegian this missile was designed to negotiate the country's many fjords which means it's capable of maneuvering around land masses

Here's of the NSM in action, helping to take down the Odgen:

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – The expected flight endurance of the “Orion” is at least 24 hours, while the altitude – about five miles. The drone will also carry a  pay load of up to 660 pounds.

“At the Gromov Flight Research Institute [in the Moscow Region] tests of the medium altitude long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle ‘Orion’ have started,” the source said.

That's 'ISIS Crisis' in a nutshell, a Canadian-developed table-top war game that a wing of the Canadian military says could be useful in getting strategists thinking more broadly about fighting in Iraq and Syria.

The game, developed by a major in the British army and a professor at a Canadian university, was given a test run by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC), the military's in-house technology and research division.

The research body played the turn-based strategy game to see if it changed their way of thinking about any of the military, social, economic, or cultural problems facing the region.

The rules of the game are pretty limited. The players first form six teams: the Islamic State, the Iraqi government, the Kurdish Regional Government, the Sunni militias, Iran, and the United States. The player or players representing each faction or power must make logical arguments on what they wish to do, and other players can argue against it. The moderator, or umpire, can decide on the outcome, often by rolling some die.

Iterations of this type of game have been around for centuries. The Prussian military used a game called Kriegsspiel to plan their military campaigns. Diplomacy, a table-top game that requires alliance-making and real-world strategizing in order to conquer Europe, was reportedly Henry Kissinger's favorite game. Even the DRDC has had some experience with them — they published a report in 2011 saying that matrix gaming proved effective in preparing security for the Vancouver Olympics.

ISIS Crisis can get surprisingly complex. In the DRDC report on the utility of the game, the military researchers playing the part of the Kurdish army had to quickly professionalize their forces, while the players representing Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi attempted to upgrade their air force, only to fail. As the game progressed, a weakened IS rump managed to smuggle a chemical weapon into Mosul, only to face US special forces. Iran, meanwhile, convinced the Assad government to launch aggressive airstrikes against the self-proclaimed caliphate.

one of the largest signals of China’s ever increasing strength is the strides it is making in ballistic missile technology. As the following chart from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission demonstrates, China now has the capability to hit US military targets on Guam with ballistic missiles launches from the mainland

The chart highlights the various ranges of ballistic missiles that China has in its arsenal divided into air, naval, and ground categories. The ranges are calculated showing the missile’s estimated farthest possible range based upon a launching location in China that is as close as possible to the target

China’s air-launched missiles have the longest range and would be able to hit Darwin, Australia. However, the missiles are launched by bombers with large radar cross-sections that would be relatively easy to detect and defend against

More difficult to prepare for is China’s growing submarine fleet. It’s latest classes of submarines can sail out to Guam in under two days, while its stealthier but slower diesel submarines can reach the US-owned island in under 4 days. These submarines can all be equipped with ballistic missiles which could greatly complicate US activities around Guam

Finally, China’s ground-based ballistic missiles have rapidly been advancing in range. Its DF-26 missile, unveiled last year, has enough range to hit Guam when launched from the Chinese mainland. The missile is also capable of carrying conventional or nuclear munitions

the report refers to the DF-26 as a “Guam Killer” and notes that “[c]ombined with improved air- and sea-launched cruise missiles and modernizing support systems, the DF-26 would allow China to bring a greater diversity and quality of assets to bear against Guam in a contingency than ever before.”

Duterte is not going to focus on foreign affairs; he might not be as accommodating to China as some suggest, but he is also not going to prioritize the conflict in the South China Sea—no matter what he said on the campaign trail about jet skiing to contested waters to reinforce Philippine claims. Like President Joko Widodo in Indonesia, Duterte has been elected with a mandate to focus on domestic issues, principally inequality, perceived needs for political reform, and crime. He has already promised to continue many of President Aquino III’s macroeconomic policies. He is a mayor, and he will likely stick to these domestic challenges. He is unlikely to just jettison Manila’s South China Sea arbitration case, as some Philippine and U.S. commentators have feared; the case is near completion, and the decision will probably be released this summer. Duterte surely realizes that if Manila wins, it will be a boon for the Philippines’ claims. Even if he ultimately wants to take a more accommodating stance—which would surely worry the United States and other partners—and work more closely with China in resolving South China Sea claims, winning the arbitration might provide some leverage

The People’s Liberation Army Navy has no recent combat experience and no hope of challenging the U.S. Navy on a global scale. The U.S. Navy outnumbers and outclasses China’s sailing branch in practically every category — not just technologically

America’s sailors are better trained and have far more practical experience, giving an edge in the event of a future conflict

As the U.S. Pacific Fleet’s director of intelligence, Rielage knows a thing or two about the Chinese military

“Central to these are high-end naval combat tasks — the fundamentals of fleet action against a foreign navy intervening against People’s Republic of China (PRC) interests. While no training is a perfect facsimile of combat, the PLAN’s proficiency is increasing through this deliberate investment in more advanced and realistic training.”

A single vessel, let alone a fleet, is a complicated machine staffed by hundreds or thousands of human beings … who are prone to biases and making mistakes. Wars are inherently confusing and unpredictable — which is why militaries rely on time-tested tactics and procedures to know what to do in actual combat

For instance, Chinese commanders often create techniques “on the fly” when learning new technologies, Rielage wrote. Chinese officers often have modern command-and-control systems — thanks to Beijing’s big defense budget — but find them so overwhelming they resort back to older and less efficient methods

Beijing is now more often deploys warships as “opposition” forces in exercises. There is now greater emphasis on live-fire exercises, and exercises where a military unit will start out blind as to its adversaries’ numbers and capabilities

U.S. Navy practices similar techniques all the time, but that’s because the U.S. Navy is a professional, war-ready military force. What Beijing is doing is not revolutionary, but necessary if it wants to challenge America at sea. China is also placing extra of emphasis on training for electromagnetic warfare — jamming radars, radios and satellite-guided systems … and defending against the same

“In these [Chinese military news] accounts, communications fail and radars are jammed at key moments. The praiseworthy Red [friendly] force responds and overcomes these attacks, or at the least, emerges more capable of surmounting them in the future.”

“For example, a North Sea Fleet minesweeping unit was cited for exercising setting and sweeping live mines, accepting increased risk for added realism,” Rielage wrote. “In some cases, these commanders are praised for violating the parameters of an exercise to seize victory.”