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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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andrekua2
post Dec 4 2020, 08:26 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 4 2020, 08:19 AM)
Let wait and see.
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Give you a hundred and shoo you away...10c divvy

Shopping spree incoming for Tan Sri... Latexx aka Semperit could be the next possible target after covid die down.
andrekua2
post Dec 4 2020, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 4 2020, 09:47 AM)
Steel theme over? All steel counters dropping. Or just take profit?
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Thats what you get when you dont read news...
andrekua2
post Dec 7 2020, 09:45 AM

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Wow Boon3

Impressive writeup...yeah, that is why I dislike government for not imposing windfall taxes. It is so unethical to increase price so much during pandemic. I understand that business is business but this is over liao. I think part of it probably was caused by Donald Trump. He derailed the covid19 preparation for US which led to huge spike. Otherwise it could have been less severe.
andrekua2
post Dec 7 2020, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(dickybird @ Dec 7 2020, 11:53 AM)
Hahaha
That happens to everyone
I sold homeritz at 0.63 after that it trekked up to 1.00
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Why you sold? Net cash company. Been holding for 2 years. Just makan divvy if no movement.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 08:34 AM

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QUOTE(greyPJ @ Dec 8 2020, 11:34 PM)
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ur-bonus-shares

Public Bank proposes 4-for-one bonus issue

is this consider good or bad news for pbb?
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Generally Malaysian only know BI = goreng time coming

I personally dont feel like BI is a bonus... Value trap for owners to top up company capital without paying from his own pocket. As for investors, goodbye to your dividends.

If we still live in those days whereby 1lot = 1000 shares then a split or bi would increase liquidity. Nowadays with 1lot = 100shares, why do they want to do it?
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(immobile @ Dec 9 2020, 12:45 AM)
hopefully tmrw big boss TG can give us nice nice early Christmas present  innocent.gif  innocent.gif
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If those rumors of TG still working but under closed doors, it could very well break the 2b barrier... I just wonder what's for next quarter when they are not at 100% capacity.

Judging from CEO speech, he seem confident that the higher ASP would be enough to offset the lower production capacity.


andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Dec 9 2020, 12:15 PM)
I very salty.. cause of MI, made me sold UWC.. been riding UWC since 4..

doh.gif  doh.gif

Manatau all my friends keep posting on whatsapp celebrating UWC hitting 9.4!  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif
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I dont really know what to say to all these "tech" related stocks... all riding on 100x PER.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Dec 9 2020, 12:33 PM)
I am a little flabbergasted here. But why is Supermax trading like a Chinese EV company (NIO/Li/Xpev) even though it has much better earnings and balance sheet? Like wth
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Supermax history is not too good.

Boss kena caught goreng his own company shares, lousy management spent money to buy those lousier glovemakers, then going OBM model which drag their sales down. The pandemic has saved them. Since they are OBM, their profit is a lot higher than those OEM since they sell direct to customer. However, as usual, once pandemic is over, you will wonder if Supermax can achieve such revenue ever again. How much they gained during this pandemic is exactly how much they stand to lose out after pandemic is over.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Dec 9 2020, 10:49 AM)
Today steels mostly gone up...newbie question, how do people sense the rotational play? I mean, it was down, then without much news, they all shoot up...is there a science behind this or there's none, lol
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It is all guesswork. First, they goreng glove stocks. Then goreng courier stocks saying ppl now purchase more from internet (despite these courier cant even make money with increased traffic). After that said packaging will increase due to postage etc. Then say work from home thus buy furniture stocks (makes you wonder why everyone didnt have some sort of table or chair at home). Then MCO end say buy banking, leisure & travel stocks since economy will recover V shape. Then vaccine make news and pharmacy stocks rallied despite they are basically just a distribution center. Now already sing song for more projects and those construction/steel related counters also start goreng.


andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Dec 9 2020, 04:23 PM)
The current trend in BURSA is:

Tech
Semiconductors
Steel
Banks!

Avoid vaccine for the moment.
because MYEG is gonna distribute them instead of DPHARMA and PHARMANIAGA  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Nope...

I think myeg is trying to secure stock which will then become l negotiation chip with government to vaccinate foreign workers. Imagine employers had to pay RM200 to vaccinate each of their foreign workers... It's a gamble though
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Dec 9 2020, 05:08 PM)
BRIEF-Top Glove says in final talks with U.S. over ban on two units

    Dec 9 (Reuters) - Top Glove Corporation Bhd <TPGC.KL>:
    * SAYS IN FINAL STAGE OF TALKS WITH U.S. CBP TO REVOKE BAN
ON
GLOVES PRODUCED BY TWO UNITS
    * SAYS EXPECTS SHORTAGE OF GLOVES FOR NEXT THREE YEARS
    * TOP GLOVE SAYS TEMPORARY FACTORY CLOSURES FROM CORONAVIRUS
OUTBREAK TO HURT SALES AND PRODUCTION BY 4% IN FY2021
    * TOP GLOVE SAYS HAS SEEN LESS THAN 3% OF ORDERS BEING
CANCELLED
DUE TO LONGER DELIVERY TIMES, HIGHER PRICING
    * TOP GLOVE SAYS STILL WORKING TOWARDS INITIAL PUBLIC
OFFERING IN
HONG KONG

Further company coverage: <TPGC.KL>

(Reporting by Kuala Lumpur newsroom)
((ananthalakshmi.as@thomsonreuters.com;))

Hm~~~~
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Top Glove boss really has next level vision... Become too big to fail then everyone also scare of you. Imagine one day they produced 5 out of 10 gloves sold around the world.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 9 2020, 05:22 PM)
I heard many good comment about him from a few of my mentors, and they seldom so impressed with someone.

they say you can sense his aura and his own level of thinking and determination is unbelievable.

another one is Tun Dr. Mahathir. When he was PM (younger version), his thinking was so fast that normal person without proper training can't even keep up his pace.
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I think he's only realizing it few years ago. Before that he's just another old geezer. Slowly expanding, eventually letting Hartalega caught up even though it was only listed 10 years ago.

Instead I think Hartalega emergence revolutionize glove makers in Malaysia.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 9 2020, 05:53 PM)
Yes Harta is the better one. Topglove too busy trying to be no.1 that they starting to neglect long term stuff. Namely invest into the future. Maybe Top glove boss goal is so close now, he starting to cut corners.

Harta to me still has that young boy spirit, i can see them keep on innovating and one day leading the world in terms of glove manufacturing technology and expertise. Once this glove mania is over, I still hope i can pick up Harta on value.
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Well, you can't say they didnt knew about it. It's just that Hartalega boss has the perfect vision for his company. TG boss did tried to buy out Hartalega prior to their listing but he didn't want to sell. I can only guess Tan Sri too stingy back then.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 9 2020, 06:13 PM)
The cash flow statement reflected clearly how you had once described him as relentless and way too aggressive trying to be no. 1. Trying to beat Maybank.

So TG had around 3 billion pbt. Where the money goes reflect the saying most cannot handle sudden extreme richness.

Bulk of the money went to buybacks. Which was clearly badly executed. Then splashed a billion plus into money market fund. And only invested some 340 million into plants.

Which left than with only 1.2 billion by end November.

QR result came out, and it says it want to spend 1.3 billion as dividends....

Sure it has the cash to cover the dividends.. but it has left my scratching my hair left right and center.

So much so huge the current profit windfall but the company money is like.. Poof... mana pergi?
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Chinaman where got share his fortune with you.
Considered yourself lucky that you still get something. I guess there's pressure from government to at least issued some dividends given how many government related funds are into gloves.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 9 2020, 06:54 PM)
TG...

earnings per share of 29.64 this qtr... annualized forward = rm1.18.

how many in bursa is doing that or better?

stock price rm6.84... PER = 5.9.

how many in bursa has that EPS with that PER?!!!

no matter how much u like or dislike TG, give that a thought...
frankly, i am puzzled why some major fund(s, EPF?) kept dumping, esp today.

wanna collect less dividend to pay us <3% next round?!!! tongue.gif
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Many analysts already forecast 11b FY2021 but its the FY2022 and beyond that matters. I think market like unpredictable things like when glove stocks started the initial rally. Now it is also the same. They knew the capacity of each glove makers but what they cant predict is how much the ASP will drop. Only glovemakers know. Another is the possibility of order cancellations. I think orders cancellation will start late next year.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 9 2020, 08:55 PM)
That's the thing mentioned the last couple of quarters for Top Glove. The market is already expecting the good results, so when the results come in, and the company results just lebih kurang meets expectation... how can one expect the market to send the stock higher?
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The real problem came from the result itself.

Just sit back and take a look at the result.

4.8b revenue with 2.4b profits... 50% profit margins... And people look at that and goes it's reasonable? It's sustainable?

Just take a look at pre covid 19 profit margins. Assuming all 2.4b is not supposed to be earn during normal circumstances. Actual sales is only 2.4b + 15% profits, one would be looking at 2.7b revenue with 360m profits or so. The EPS would hover around 5c x 4Q = 20c... At 6.xx, you'll still get a PER 3x.
andrekua2
post Dec 9 2020, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(farid_cool @ Dec 9 2020, 10:24 PM)
May I know why if PP happen, price drop?

Thanks.
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Dilution...

Company issued new shares aka PP... Companies get extra money to do business, but now the returns has to be shared among old plus new shareholders.
andrekua2
post Dec 10 2020, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Dec 10 2020, 03:36 PM)
Thanks for advice. Truth be told when Moo wanted to call for emergency that time, I wanted to go in more but failed to (chicken out). I am only around 30% vested out of 100% planned investments. Profit around 5% of the 30% vested currently. So the rest of the money went into FD at 2.5%...

My bank stocks at one point went down more than 20%, so now when it is up to slight green, urge is there to sell. Like US stocks, went down more than 20% to only go up in slight green. Sold it to only see it goes up much more. The rollercoaster not for the faint hearted. Anyway I decided to hold on until around Christmas time. Hope no big negative event happens.
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If you want to hold long, just leave it there and dont look.

My EPF withdrawal to PB Growth Fund was negative 30% after leaving there for 1 year+. Withdraw last month after it turned green by about 10%.

Insas drop to 38c, I dont really bother, cost 1.08. Now already 88c.

Homeritz drop to 37c, cost 68c, now 1.06

If your holding is good stocks with plenty of cash/assets to burn, they will get through whatever crisis in front. If you hold goreng stock, then god bless you. Just dont be greedy. If you had a lot of money, then separate the funds. 75% buy good stocks to hold, no eyes see, collect divvy. Balance you want to goreng or whatever, just go for it. Year end, do the math and see which one suits you more.
andrekua2
post Dec 10 2020, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Dec 10 2020, 05:08 PM)
ya spx so weak the volumn.....now 0.80 cents different from TG.....

Damn at this rate when can i go green with spx...... I'm at penthouse 8.6 averaged .......
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Divvy stock collect liao what... calculate that sure can lower another 40c.
andrekua2
post Dec 12 2020, 08:19 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 12 2020, 07:06 AM)
Unless short selling ban is extended, most if not all goreng counters will be vulnerable.

Despite attractive per and record profit, for reasons why FF not bought substantially into gloves stock.
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Bro,

Attractive? All of them were attractive when they were trading below RM10 before BI. Now that they have seen what these companies could achieved, its the end game already.

Instead the ones I would say worthy of holding are the smaller players. They had lots of money to expand now if they intended to. Overcapacity would be a worry now but if they dont expand, they are doomed in the next 5 years or so.

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