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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(yahiko @ Sep 10 2020, 01:51 PM)
was thinking to keep or let go CIMB.. haih
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Curve flattening (accumulation phase = wont drop much more from this point), die die hold, dont buy more now YET, wait for 3pm announcement today and unemployment announcement 2mr
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(debonairs91 @ Sep 10 2020, 01:51 PM)
I not that pro until that level yet don't even know how to do that.
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Open account with JPEX/APEX securities

QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Sep 10 2020, 01:53 PM)
anyone knows what time the OPR news will be out?
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3pm
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 10 2020, 01:55 PM)
3pm we will see if KLSE will go up to 1500.... or going toward 1400.

Place your bets gentleman.
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LOL, dont sohai, dont gamble, wait result only buy is much safer. Market is there to be exploited, not gamble
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 10 2020, 01:59 PM)
Well, we are not gambling by putting money in KLSE at 2.30pm til 3pm. Now THAT would be sohai. Just a "virtual bet"  laugh.gif
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Good good dont make any more irrational bets to recoup your losses, very risky when you have already succumbed to your own emotions.
The chances are you will be only making other people richer, by losing your money

2 advices:
1. Dont buy a stock just because the stock price 'will' go up, buy for the future cash flow (dividends) that at the same time can protect your capital (not counters like BAT). My slow and steady method, wont make u rich, wont give u the adrenaline rush, but wot make u lose too much money. Also understanding basic TA is very important.
2. Dont follow FB gurus buy, they only intend to make themselves richer, when share price drops, they come out say they also lose money. BULLSHIT. They have to say so, so that people wont harm/threaten them because they are making profit from your losses

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 10 2020, 02:07 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 02:13 PM

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The funds have sold so much of gloves this week, where will the money go next? loan repayment? reinvest into gloves? or rotational play into other counters?
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 03:08 PM

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Oh well, so much speculation on OPR cut. Thats why never believe in rumours...

Cooper price increasing,
Gold price staying flat
OPR no cut = economy recovery is heading towards BNM projected path
Unemployment? down or up?

1 last engine for economy recovery turbo is still uncertain. I would wait. 1 more day for the unemployment data.

Now you know which counters to accumulate. For those who wont have the patience, they might only start buying at uptrend breakout

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 10 2020, 03:09 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 03:20 PM

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Btw OPR no cut, means less liquidity, goreng counters will be more difficult after this (+ moratorium end combo). Stay safe
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 10 2020, 03:24 PM)
Bank counters are picking up in price.
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QUOTE(wayton @ Sep 10 2020, 03:32 PM)
I think can slowly pick up those recovery theme stocks, although full recovery may still far.

As said by sifu, invest in cyclical stock need to do when low tide.

Glove is at high tide at the moment, although already dropped a lot and can rebound anytime, but still at down trend as a bigger picture.
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Can accumulate, but dont panic buy. Thats all from me because the unemployment data is not out yet, if 2mr data drop but insignificant, then also meaningless.

NPL is also uncertain, but banks have already taken proactive measures (increase loan provision, some by 300% increase)
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 10 2020, 03:39 PM)
Can accumulate, but dont panic buy. Thats all from me because the unemployment data is not out yet, if 2mr data drop but insignificant, then also meaningless.

NPL is also uncertain, but banks have already taken proactive measures (increase loan provision, some by 300% increase)
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All banks +ve, hope no ppl panic buy, dont make irrational decisions
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post Sep 10 2020, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:26 PM)
I work in TG and i say to hold existing shares and invest more at rm6. The future is bright
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Show company tag please to verify. You can censor you name and face
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:31 PM)
No need, its either u trust or u dont. If want, come meet me at tg tower we go the gym at level 10

But still to please you, i send u a pic of me showing peace hhhahahahh
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Nice, legit source

"while its short-term results are expected to be robust and higher average selling (ASPs) will drive ratings upgrades, earnings are expected to peak in FY21 and will unlikely repeat once the demand-supply equation normalises — either in the second half of 2021 or the first half of 2022"

I skeptical sia, precovid TG Rm1.46. TG now is still 4-5x more expensive that pre-covid. ASP earliest normalizing 9 more months.

But i truly believe in a dead cat bounce in the near future. Now is just anxiety mode. Any more massive selling might be overdone and stage for a dead cat bounce. Playing this bounce right will also make us a lot of money


HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Sep 10 2020, 07:21 PM)
U mean u will be on tv tmr? For real?
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tan sri lim
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 07:20 PM)
I'm a warrant noob. Can anyone tell me how does this Macquarie warrant TOPGLOV-C67 works. Salient terms:

Expiry date - 16 Oct 20
Exercise Price - RM1.667
Exercise Ratio - 1.3333
Breakeven price at expiry (obtained from malaysiawarrants.com.my) - RM6.43

Does that mean if the mother share price is above RM1.667 on 16 Oct 2020, Macquarie have to compensate whoever holding the warrant on that date?

Can this be a reason why they suddenly u-turn their TP for Toglove from RM10 just 2 weeks ago to RM5 - to push down the share price (and hence the warrant price) so that they can buy back the warrants?

Not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just curious and want to know how this warrant works.
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I thought u CFA...

Exercise price = money to need to exercise the warrant
ratio = 1.333 warrant can be converted into 1 share

E.g.
You have 1.3333 warrant and bought 1.333 warrant at total of RM1

So if you exercise the right, you can pay RM1.667*1.333 = get TG share, then u can sell at whatever the amrket price is.
If TG RM 5, you earn RM5-RM1-RM1.667*1.333 = x


For simplicity sake, negative premium warrant is 'cheap'; positive premium warrant is 'expensive' unless price can shoot up

Bro, correct me if am wrong, I just learned the basics long long time ago, but never buy warrant before because I know Malaysia counter's share prices are highly manipulative

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 10 2020, 07:41 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(debonairs91 @ Sep 10 2020, 07:25 PM)
TG was rm6 pre covid...
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after splitting, tg precovid price is RM1.46
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 07:34 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Sep 10 2020, 07:33 PM)
Lol, ok. Misunderstood the statement. Thanks.
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No problem my friend biggrin.gif
HereToLearn
post Sep 10 2020, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 07:54 PM)
Haha it was a rhetoric question. Nice try, but what you described is a company warrant, not a structured warrant.

Unlike a company warrant, a structured warrant is issued by an IB in return for a premium. So the first investor buys the structured warrant directly from Macquarie, and then the warrant is subsequently traded freely on Bursa just like any other share. At the expiry date, if the mother share price is above the warrant exercise price, Macquarie will settle the difference in cash. If the mother share price is equal to or below the warrant exercise price, the warrant will expire worthless.

Now in this case, Macquarie issued this warrant C67 on 3 February 2020 (before the covid19 bull run) with an expiry of 16 Oct 2020 (next month).

With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. If the mother share price close at RM8, the compensation is RM4.76 per warrant [(8-1.67) / 1.33]. As you can see, even though the difference in the mother share price is just 60% (8/5), they will need to compensate 90% (4.76/2.50) more. This is the leverage effect of a structured warrant.

Now the next thing that people need to know - just 2 weeks ago, Macquarie issued a report with a TP of RM30. Today they issued a new report with [b]higher profit forecast
for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on the basis that ASP is increasing faster than expected.

At the same time, he halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? He did not know how to do his job previously and suddenly now he knows? Did he suddenly have a crystal ball?

Or did some head of department from the derivative division realised they shouldnt have issued C67 because they didn't expect the bull run sparked by Covid-19, spoke to the IB CEO, who then spoke to the head of department of the research division, who then had a "word" with the independent research analyst?

I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just stating the facts and "possible scenarios". You make the judgement. This is something we need to ponder upon before taking in the headline RM5.40 downgrade report.
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M[/B]acquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. This compensation did not include the price paid for the warrants. So mathematically must be a lot more lesser.

But thanks biggrin.gif, I never know we have company and structured warrant. Structured warrant is like small knife cut big tree. Knife cannot cut, the lose all money paid for the structured warrant
HereToLearn
post Sep 11 2020, 01:18 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 11 2020, 01:15 AM)
Icon city in sg way, offered 6 months rental free to a tenant last year.
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Do they jack up the price, when they give such deals? Thats what property marketing always do right, jack up price, says give u rebate and all those craps

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 11 2020, 01:23 AM
HereToLearn
post Sep 11 2020, 10:31 AM

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Strong rebound in gloves, top kek.

Also new update, foreign fund in 2 days in a row

Congrats those who entered yesterday

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 11 2020, 10:31 AM
HereToLearn
post Sep 11 2020, 12:31 PM

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Holyshit, checking the stock at lunch break + 20%, take profit and run lol, 20% gain in a day as good as penny stocks already

Congrats to those who bought at dip yesterday. EZ money, sell you +25 to 30%; this mini dead cat rebound might go higher; but very very good to take profit already

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 11 2020, 12:33 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 11 2020, 12:44 PM

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KYY 16 mins ago (after the gloves stocks have run so high): 'good' opportunity to buy gloves stock. This old sly fox

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