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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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icemanfx
post Aug 17 2022, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 17 2022, 10:38 AM)
i doubt they will run out of business. gloves are still in an integral part of healthcare. but with current ASP and competition they will likely just be making regular decent profits each quarters. not much growth anymore to expect
the boss more interested to do share buy backs at RM 6 and brought tropicana down with him lol
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'shares buy back' is public information, is meant for minions consumption. experienced players have many proxy, what transpire privately could be a different story.

icemanfx
post Aug 17 2022, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM)
there are 2 different angles to view at it

those factories that have razor thin margin even before pandemic, might as well tutup kedai

if you are the factory owner, what would you do?
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To restart a idling glove production line doesn't take a lot of effort or time. however, to maintain a glove production line running take a lot of energy. knowing overcapacity in the next few years, it is cheaper to shut it down and could always restart progressively.

square2
post Aug 17 2022, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 17 2022, 11:10 AM)
To restart a idling glove production line doesn't take a lot of effort or time. however, to maintain a glove production line running take a lot of energy. knowing overcapacity in the next few years, it is cheaper to shut it down and could always restart progressively.
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i am no expert. andre would be a better person to answer laugh.gif
statikinetic
post Aug 22 2022, 12:24 PM

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Sentiment totally flat here huh?

Made a small mid year acquisition. That's probably it unless something on my list goes on sale.
thkent91
post Aug 22 2022, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 22 2022, 12:24 PM)
Sentiment totally flat here huh?

Made a small mid year acquisition. That's probably it unless something on my list goes on sale.
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Mind to share which sector?
statikinetic
post Aug 22 2022, 09:28 PM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Aug 22 2022, 02:48 PM)
Mind to share which sector?
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Bursa has it under Consumer Products & Services.
I already have it in my portfolio and am averaging up (fun!). Not trading here.
howyoulikethat
post Aug 22 2022, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM)
there are 2 different angles to view at it

those factories that have razor thin margin even before pandemic, might as well tutup kedai

if you are the factory owner, what would you do?
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but Careplus didnt tutup kedai, did they? These glove companies would still continue to sell gloves, as they believe in the statistics which showed that glove demand has always been on a secular rise over the longer term.

The problem is, in the near term, the ASPs is just so bad & competition from China is worrying. As the experienced ones in the stockmarket here have mentioned, buying glove shares now, is still quite a risky punt.

Perhaps the quarter report from Supermax can reverse the downtrend a bit, as its profit has increased from last quarter.
statikinetic
post Aug 23 2022, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Aug 22 2022, 11:43 PM)
Perhaps the quarter report from Supermax can reverse the downtrend a bit, as its profit has increased from last quarter.
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There is also the angle that using last quarter is inaccurate because of how bad that quarter is.
Just because it is better doesn't necessarily mean there is an upside. It could also mean it has gone from terrible to not so bad.

Competition and ASP don't seem to be letting up.

square2
post Aug 23 2022, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Aug 22 2022, 11:43 PM)
but Careplus didnt tutup kedai, did they? These glove companies would still continue to sell gloves, as they believe in the statistics which showed that glove demand has always been on a secular rise over the longer term.

The problem is, in the near term, the ASPs is just so bad & competition from China is worrying. As the experienced ones in the stockmarket here have mentioned, buying glove shares now, is still quite a risky punt.

Perhaps the quarter report from Supermax can reverse the downtrend a bit, as its profit has increased from last quarter.
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i will not invest in careplus. historically even before covid they were consistently making loss. supermax report is rather lousy too. without the forex, they are also making loss this quarter. margin is always higher at harta/kossan side

how low will they go? i also dunno. i just pick the best among the worse. but this is my own action and not expecting anyone to follow me.

QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 23 2022, 12:28 AM)
There is also the angle that using last quarter is inaccurate because of how bad that quarter is.
Just because it is better doesn't necessarily mean there is an upside. It could also mean it has gone from terrible to not so bad.

Competition and ASP don't seem to be letting up.
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totally agree. i am also hopeful that they will be doing better in 2024-2025 onwards.

IB always give medical/health sector a higher PE rating compared to other standard industrial products
statikinetic
post Aug 23 2022, 09:21 PM

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My little packaging company is brewing so at least there's something going on for me. What's everyone up to?
howyoulikethat
post Aug 23 2022, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 23 2022, 12:28 AM)
There is also the angle that using last quarter is inaccurate because of how bad that quarter is.
Just because it is better doesn't necessarily mean there is an upside. It could also mean it has gone from terrible to not so bad.

Competition and ASP don't seem to be letting up.
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My view is that if the market thinks that gloves have bottomed, downtrend reverse. Today's gloves did not seem to show this case.


howyoulikethat
post Aug 23 2022, 09:40 PM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Aug 23 2022, 01:35 PM)
i will not invest in careplus. historically even before covid they were consistently making loss. supermax report is rather lousy too. without the forex, they are also making loss this quarter. margin is always higher at harta/kossan side

how low will they go? i also dunno. i just pick the best among the worse. but this is my own action and not expecting anyone to follow me.
totally agree. i am also hopeful that they will be doing better in 2024-2025 onwards.

IB always give medical/health sector a higher PE rating compared to other standard industrial products
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of course it feels nice to grab stocks at the lowest price. Best bargain! But how do we know whether glove has bottomed now? CGS Cimb said "Worst is yet to come". Kenanga said "ASP is yet to bottom". If you think 2024 only recover, why not wait until 2023 only you buy gloves? Then you only wait 1 year for prices to start rising, rather than buy now & potentially wait 2 years.

It's true in the past that IB give med products higher PE. But now, like the super intelligent fairly underrated Boon3 raised the point that in a sunset industry, the best one also tarak guna. I doubt the IBs will give high PE to gloves now. Oversupply issue ma.

I mean, I wish you good luck in your investment, but I was almost in your position last year, thinking how cheap glove stocks are, then the smart ones here saved me from buying more. (which saved me money)
howyoulikethat
post Aug 23 2022, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 23 2022, 09:21 PM)
My little packaging company is brewing so at least there's something going on for me. What's everyone up to?
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simpan tunai. Dun wan to go fishing on the choppy seas now. shakehead.gif Will only buy banks after Oct. sweat.gif
statikinetic
post Aug 23 2022, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Aug 23 2022, 09:54 PM)
simpan tunai. Dun wan to go fishing on the choppy seas now.  shakehead.gif Will only buy banks after Oct.  sweat.gif
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Choppy seas is tough when trading in the broad market.
But if we're looking at our own basket of things, sometimes the timing is right. Like I added my stake into CCK a few days ago. My little chicken company.

Boon3, out of the blue my MASTER started to show some drama. Sudden entertainment.


QUOTE(thkent91 @ Aug 22 2022, 02:48 PM)
Mind to share which sector?
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Info above.
statikinetic
post Aug 24 2022, 12:10 AM

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And in other news, this went under the radar amidst all the Najib news.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cour...d-payment-under
Boon3
post Aug 24 2022, 06:36 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 23 2022, 10:07 PM)
Choppy seas is tough when trading in the broad market.
But if we're looking at our own basket of things, sometimes the timing is right. Like I added my stake into CCK a few days ago. My little chicken company.

Boon3, out of the blue my MASTER started to show some drama. Sudden entertainment.
Info above.
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laugh.gif

Nice on Master. biggrin.gif
statikinetic
post Aug 24 2022, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 24 2022, 06:36 AM)
laugh.gif

Nice on Master. biggrin.gif
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Master I didn't expect a lot of substantial shareholder acquisitions to take place. Something is brewing.

Today is the Serba show!
Boon3
post Aug 24 2022, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 24 2022, 09:19 AM)
Master I didn't expect a lot of substantial shareholder acquisitions to take place. Something is brewing.

Today is the Serba show!
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There are more and more stocks that are doing fairly well. Like the saying goes, there's always a bullish stock(s) in a bearish market. Yup, there's decent money to be made out there. biggrin.gif




zstan
post Aug 24 2022, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Aug 24 2022, 12:10 AM)
And in other news, this went under the radar amidst all the Najib news.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cour...d-payment-under
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fuh. PPIM really drag their fan base to holland
statikinetic
post Aug 24 2022, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 24 2022, 03:34 PM)
fuh. PPIM really drag their fan base to holland
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Serba holders had more than enough time to exit.
When somebody is unable to come up with an exit plan, the market does it for you.

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