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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Dec 17 2021, 10:07 AM)
Theories can work or not work.
Most important is to know the company well before buying. For me I buy and hold long. If trader then more risk involved. Good luck.
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Exactly!!

There are a lot of market theories around.

For example. Share buybacks. Theories says it is good and yea, based on theories, I very much agree that the basic idea behind share buybacks is good.

But in reality? That's certainly not the case. The buyback still involves the process of buying back the stock and if the process is badly executed/abused then it's money simply thrown away. Top Glove is one bad example.
Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Dec 15 2021, 06:20 PM)

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.... and glove stocks wants to start running amok again.... laugh.gif

the reason? spike in Covid cases lo.... (laugh.gif .... same old same old )


yhtan
post Dec 17 2021, 10:18 AM

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From: lolyat


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 17 2021, 10:15 AM)
.... and glove stocks wants to start running amok again.... laugh.gif

the reason? spike in Covid cases lo.... (laugh.gif .... same old same old )
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I think the price has factor in everything, meaning to say glove is at bottom but don't know when is the next catalyst.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

yhtan
post Dec 17 2021, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Dec 17 2021, 09:48 AM)
But nice what. 4 of your stocks went up a lot in 2 months time. Would suggest to stay off Intel they are facing a lot of competition from AMD. High cost of operating their business also. I worked there for a brief period last time so I know their company challenges. Is like big elephant la so use to all the goodies and being monopoly.. Suddenly this AMD underdog come in and steal much biz away.. Hard for them to adapt.

AMD new chips pose a treat to them also especially in the gaming market. If one day AMD even exceeds them in the corporate and server market then gg liao. AMD being really innovative and aggressive all these while. AMD buying over ATI last time is also a good move.
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AMD already conquer the gaming market (premium market), those who got higher budget will opt for AMD chipsets now.

Intel's fortress still at Enterprise Server market, they almost dominate it and AMD is still finding way to capture that market.
Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Dec 17 2021, 10:18 AM)
I think the price has factor in everything, meaning to say glove is at bottom but don't know when is the next catalyst.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
laugh.gif laugh.gif macam yes but macam no ... laugh.gif laugh.gif
yhtan
post Dec 17 2021, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 17 2021, 10:21 AM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  macam yes but macam no ...  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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For fund manager, the rebalancing of portfolio already done over this year and impossible for them to further dump at Dec'21 as the price already trading at 30% from peak.

So after this, next year unless they further decrease the percentage of portfolio in healthcare stock, i did not see any further huge drop. Unless the company is mismanage by having too much of wastage and stock rejection by client.

Btw i heard TG having a huge issue in stock rejection due to quality issue, if u look at their inventories value, the stock is value at 1bil+
Davidtcf
post Dec 17 2021, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Dec 17 2021, 10:20 AM)
AMD already conquer the gaming market (premium market), those who got higher budget will opt for AMD chipsets now.

Intel's fortress still at Enterprise Server market, they almost dominate it and AMD is still finding way to capture that market.
*
And also threats from Apple and Qualcomm:

https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech...o-13-2020-intel

https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/1/22811736...-chip-processor

if I were to buy a new gaming computer today, I would choose AMD Ryzen.. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Dec 17 2021, 10:30 AM)
For fund manager, the rebalancing of portfolio already done over this year and impossible for them to further dump at Dec'21 as the price already trading at 30% from peak.

So after this, next year unless they further decrease the percentage of portfolio in healthcare stock, i did not see any further huge drop. Unless the company is mismanage by having too much of wastage and stock rejection by client.

Btw i heard TG having a huge issue in stock rejection due to quality issue, if u look at their inventories value, the stock is value at 1bil+
*
Rebalancing of portfolio .by fund manager... to be frank, I had always think that this is utterly the stupidest thing to do...
Just don't make sense for me... but ya... they will have their 'reasons'...
well, for me... if my reason is that stock still has a great future, hell I will hold on to it for as long as possible.
But if a stock is shit... I will not hold it for a day longer... why wait till end of the year/quarter to rid off? let losses in that shit stock grow? rolleyes.gif

TG inventory issue. Yeah, I was watching it.
The quarter just reported value was 997 million but the quarter before this, inventory was 1.17 billion...
still early to conclude...
but if inventory value starts to increase on a q-q basis, there will be concerns...

the last reports...
glove makers themselves had indicated that they do not see ASP stabilise (in today's meaning... it means 'stop falling') till early next year....

yeah... if ASP continues to fall .... profits will look really shitty for the glove makers... if so, how la the share prices move up?

unless of course... the knee jerk reactions to increase in covid cases (in which case, the price movement is speculative la)

my 3 sen

Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 10:50 AM

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Fuyoooo....

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/...P?ocid=msedgntp


6.8 Billion project awarded to kakilang? Only 6.8 billion?????

and the shareholders approved??? doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif


puke.gif puke.gif


yet... another reason why I never like this stock.... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Dec 17 2021, 10:50 AM
Randomization
post Dec 17 2021, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 17 2021, 10:42 AM)
Rebalancing of portfolio .by fund manager... to be frank, I had always think that this is utterly the stupidest thing to do...
Just don't make sense for me... but ya... they will have their 'reasons'...
well, for me... if my reason is that stock still has a great future, hell I will hold on to it for as long as possible.
But if a stock is shit... I will not hold it for a day longer... why wait till end of the year/quarter to rid off? let losses in that shit stock grow?  rolleyes.gif

*
Need to take profit to calculate their KPI.

Else how to get fat bonuses? laugh.gif
Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(Randomization @ Dec 17 2021, 11:01 AM)
Need to take profit to calculate their KPI.

Else how to get fat bonuses?  laugh.gif
*
Yup...one of their important 'reasons' tongue.gif
wayton
post Dec 17 2021, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 17 2021, 10:42 AM)
Rebalancing of portfolio .by fund manager... to be frank, I had always think that this is utterly the stupidest thing to do...
Just don't make sense for me... but ya... they will have their 'reasons'...
well, for me... if my reason is that stock still has a great future, hell I will hold on to it for as long as possible.
But if a stock is shit... I will not hold it for a day longer... why wait till end of the year/quarter to rid off? let losses in that shit stock grow?  rolleyes.gif
my 3 sen
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Fund managers have benchmarking index and overall market as their performance KPI.
If stock components in main index like MSCI or others changing, they may also need to change so called portfolio balancing.

Performance better than KPI benchmark, have good rating, bonuses.

If cherry picking only a few seen to be good prospect stocks but at calendar year end KPI review that those share price won't move or perform not so good, then they have the risk of underperforms and their job also.
Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Dec 17 2021, 11:18 AM)
Fund managers have benchmarking index and overall market as their performance KPI.
If stock components in main index like MSCI or others changing, they may also need to change so called portfolio balancing.

Performance better than KPI benchmark, have good rating, bonuses.

If cherry picking only a few seen to be good prospect stocks but at calendar year end KPI review that those share price won't move or perform not so good, then they have the risk of underperforms and their job also.
*
Well..... Yes!

which is one of their 'reasons'....


something which they do but something I will never do personally.

wayton
post Dec 17 2021, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 17 2021, 11:35 AM)
Well..... Yes!

which is one of their 'reasons'....
something which they do but something I will never do personally.
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Fund manager and personal investing are never the same.

Fund is obliged to be run at certain way.
Personal investing, you can do whatever you like.

Fund when money pour into the fund, they need to buy, even share price is at top.
Vice versa when there is massive redemption more than their cash holding, they need to sell, even at rock bottom price in order to pay the unit trust holders redemption.


Boon3
post Dec 17 2021, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Dec 17 2021, 11:55 AM)
Fund manager and personal investing are never the same.

Fund is obliged to be run at certain way.
Personal investing, you can do whatever you like.

Fund when money pour into the fund, they need to buy, even share price is at top. 
Vice versa when there is massive redemption more than their cash holding, they need to sell, even at rock bottom price in order to pay the unit trust holders redemption.
*
Again, yes of course and exactly.

Well...me, is always from a us and not them perspective.
Medufsaid
post Dec 17 2021, 05:01 PM

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unless the fund has such a big % of the shares in the company, mass buys/selloffs shouldn't affect the fund performance much.

e.g., UT xxx has 100 unit trust holders
invest in
Comp A 10,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)
Comp B 20,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)
Comp C 5,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)

if one day 50 UT holders sell everything, the fund manager will just sell 50% of shares a/b/c equally. the other 50% holders shouldn't see any meaningful impact (maybe UT will cause the 3 shares to drop by 0.001%) in their investment. or, if they were intending to do some "fund rebalancing", then they would use this as a convenient opportunity to sell off any companies that they plan to eliminate

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: Dec 17 2021, 05:20 PM
wayton
post Dec 17 2021, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Dec 17 2021, 05:01 PM)
unless the fund has such a big % of the shares in the company, mass buys/selloffs shouldn't affect the fund performance much.

e.g., UT xxx has 100 unit trust holders
invest in
Comp A 10,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)
Comp B 20,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)
Comp C  5,000,000 shares (0.001% of total shares)

if one day 50 UT holders sell everything, the fund manager will just sell 50% of shares a/b/c equally. the other 50% holders shouldn't see any meaningful impact (maybe UT will cause the 3 shares to drop by 0.001%) in their investment. or, if they were intending to do some "fund rebalancing", then they would use this as a convenient opportunity to sell off any companies that they plan to eliminate
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If A,B,C share price dropped due to selling pressure by fund house, it causes Nav of the fund dropping, which affected the other 50% holders due to drop in NAV.

One of the reason that fund needs to achieve certain large enough size, so that any redemption won't affect too much on fund on going investment.

Medufsaid
post Dec 17 2021, 05:39 PM

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yup, but i never deny that there will be no impact, just not meaningful enough. if there's 100 UT houses out there, only 1 "Public Mutual (for example)" UT house is doing 50% mass selling, shouldn't affect that much in the long run

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: Dec 17 2021, 05:40 PM
SUSForgotPassword
post Dec 19 2021, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Dec 17 2021, 10:20 AM)
AMD already conquer the gaming market (premium market), those who got higher budget will opt for AMD chipsets now.

Intel's fortress still at Enterprise Server market, they almost dominate it and AMD is still finding way to capture that market.
*
So kesimpulannya, buy which 1?
mujinkun
post Dec 20 2021, 11:25 AM

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Today BursaMalaysia closed right?

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