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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 12:54 PM

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Guys, what's your view of HPP holding? With the booming ecommerce and manufacturing for Malaysia, seems like packaging and labelling has a future. Company seems profitable too... feel like buying for long term but don't know good price for entry.
joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 1 2021, 01:04 PM)
My guess is investor that gone through topglove prospectus might have change their view of the industry.

Its a pretty detailed report, i bet in a few days people will start having youtube or blogpost to dissects its implication of the glove industry as a whole.
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Over the weekend Astro News got 2 clips on Gloves stock. Now they are still on average (top 4) up around 200% pre pandemic, and there's real fear the vaccine is working thus resulting in lower demand for gloves next year. Also more supply is coming and if demand doesn't go up, the top 4 gloves can lower price to eliminate competition. One of the analyst is still bullish though he mentioned has to take note of the entry price. I guess lots of moms and pops watch Astro News...
joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(daidragon12 @ Mar 1 2021, 02:22 PM)
But can average investor like mum&dad cause big move in large cap company like TG & SPMX? Must be IBs too..
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I think the mum and dad here refers to people like you and me too. Retailers basically. Big movement or not I don't know. But with foreign funds not active (or actively selling) any investors now count.
joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Mar 1 2021, 02:35 PM)
HAHAHA, FA fcks me deep for ambank. SUPER CHEAP valuation, but then boomed by 1mdb.
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No worries if the fundamentals still good. Look on the bright side, maybe the merger with RHB will be back on the table. Let me know if you averaging down, I might go in too. LOL.

In the last financial crisis, a lawyer friend told me everyday she goes to court sure hear AMBank suing people for default. Now AMBank improved somewhat, their IT system also upgraded. But their consumer business still not very good (at least in my branch area). Busiest always PB, Maybank, CIMB/RHB, HLB, Affin then AMBank.
joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Mar 1 2021, 02:44 PM)
1MDB
I got it. RIP
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Now CIMB also down almost 3%, not sure if the result not as good (to me quite good since a lot provisions made) or is it the next bank to get fined is CIMB for 1MDB. If next bank to be fined (if any) is CIMB, then me GG...
joeblow
post Mar 1 2021, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Mar 1 2021, 03:02 PM)
Hahaha, sell only la if you are scared. Hold cash is actually not bad now, Local funds selling for 2-3 months straight ady
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Come to think of it, seems to not have news of AMBank being investigated? Out of nowhere just announce being fined? Crazy days....
joeblow
post Mar 2 2021, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Mar 2 2021, 03:57 PM)
I also entered Digi just now. I think this price is considered good to  park for long term dividend ?

Any sifu can comment?
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I always like DIGI for its affiliation with Telenor. It gets a lot of good tech from Telenor especially on the IT side. Telenor long term has Accenture helping them, I was there in Norway to witness how they operate, just another story another day.

A couple of things for DIGI:

1. The merger factor. Could happen if Axiata or other suitors can agree a price with Telenor.
2. DIGI is very reliant on pre paid. These group of users more costs sensitive and fickle minded.
3. The 5G situation, basically screws all mobile players with the complicated arrangements subjected to massive U-turn. Just the selling of spectrum already U-Turned a couple of times.
4. Telco sector is cash cow mostly and DIGI has good dividend policy.

Thanks to you I might go in DIGI soon...

QUOTE(Kar Weng @ Mar 2 2021, 06:14 PM)
The same count be said for TNB.

Not a sifu here, but you gotta ask yourself what do you see Digi in the next 3-5years? Is the business still relevant and growing strong?

Some blue chip counters can be value trap. Back then Astro was a blue chip in KLCI index, stable price and dividends, but its business model did not survive the change of time.
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Because of DIGI's affiliation with Telenor, I do think DIGI is good at least in terms of their tech. But they rely too much on Huawei (networks and BSS), might get screwed by US.

I am already very heavily in TNB. Top 3 holdings. I like TNB because it is defensive in nature and the future EV potential. But TNB can be screwed by govt either with digging its reserve for more vote friendly policies or introducing kawan companies to compete with TNB especially when EV is norm in Malaysia. I am still stuck whether to go more in TNB or Banks...


QUOTE(Kar Weng @ Mar 2 2021, 11:19 PM)
It could be Bolehland’s own version of SpaceX! Dont miss the spaceship 😂
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Please lah... Malaysia spaceship? Can't even get the submarine cable policy right....


joeblow
post Mar 5 2021, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 5 2021, 10:36 AM)
bond yields, int rates go up + inflation fears....

energy, gold will be back in play?

so, get ready for poh kong and tomei... again?!! laugh.gif
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Gold is actually dropping a lot lately despite Goldman Sachs say this year Gold will go up until nobody business.... I got super stuck in egold and gold fund.

Just sold all my CIMB shares for a 5.x% profit RM4.4. The AMBank thingy spooks me, take profit first. Hope this is the right decision. Placed Maybank at 8.30.
joeblow
post Mar 5 2021, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(leanman @ Mar 5 2021, 02:35 PM)
Not keeping for the proposed dividend of 38.5 sen? maybe can buy back later at lower price smile.gif
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I missed the last wave. Now with the Bersatu/UMMO situation plus AMBank fine, I guess just take profit live to fight another day. Even though the current FM is ex CIMB CEO and the fact CIMB already provisioned tons of bad loans, I still feel Bursa will have another round of consolidation. Too many factors at play and my UT, US shares all bleeding. Good to have some cash to fight another day.

joeblow
post Mar 5 2021, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(Higgsboson8888 @ Mar 5 2021, 05:05 PM)
SMIC Tender Finally Open
After much delay, SMIC (which accounts for c.30% of order book as of end 3Q20) has opened the tender to shortlist the contractor for its 2021 work. The bidding results are expected to be known by early March 2021. The tender for 2021 is for 4 fabs worth a total estimated value of RMB100m (RM60-65m).
====
More precisely is kgb lost this tendering..
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SMIC as in that china chip company that got blacklisted by US? Good luck then. Also nowadays China companies default a lot. In Malaysia a lot of such companies... LHDN chasing them big time for tax evasion...
joeblow
post Mar 8 2021, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Mar 8 2021, 04:43 PM)
what fear? huh.gif

banks doing super well
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I would have made 30k more had I sold today instead of last Friday。。。 cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif
joeblow
post Mar 8 2021, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Mar 8 2021, 04:17 PM)
Must be
lauwenhan unwinding all his tech positions
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 8 2021, 04:33 PM)
I think so hahaha. This seemed like his basket of stocks.
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You guys so funny... On a separate note, originally wanted to go most in on DIGI, but the cat out of the bag (potential merger news)... shame....

joeblow
post Mar 8 2021, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Mar 8 2021, 07:04 PM)
Sorry, this is supposed to be a good or bad news? Good, yes?
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Good news, was targeting to buy digi rm3.5 or below. With this news up a bit, so I will wait and see. Even if talks restarted, trying to find an agreeable evaluation not easy. Last round failed. It seems to be celcom needs digi more than digi needs celcom, finding the money to entice Telenor is another proposition altogether. Hope digi drops more, but now looks unlikely unless whole market downtrend. Digi will be better with Telenor support (tech transfer). Celcom based on its track record including the Nepal acquisition, let's just say I prefer digi with Telenor.
joeblow
post Mar 9 2021, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 9 2021, 09:24 AM)
I still think it will rebound in these few days due to oversold and excessive fear.

But i will take the rebound and run, no point being stubborn as clearly sentiment have shifted
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I bought aapl and average down snow. Holding massive amount of amd at lost. I intend to sell aapl if got rebound and snow and amd will take a while to recover. For my case I won't cut loss.

QUOTE(wayton @ Mar 9 2021, 09:37 AM)
5G is not positive catalyst for Telco.
5G only good for equipment makers, driving handphone selling.

Consumer is not expecting to pay more monthly subscription fee by having 5G.
While Telco need to invest lot of money for 5G.
I came across article said 5G signal has weaker penetration that need more telco tower or signal compared to 4G.

But Digi has stable business and a good dividend income stock.
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You are spot on. Pricing from the govt SPV for 5G has not announce how much they selling 5G to the telcos. Whether this cost can be transferred to consumers, I highly doubt. For me if just on mobile, 5G would result a lost for telcos in the near term. But moving on 5G not just for mobile. It's high data speed plus low latency means lots of other business use for it. Eg automated driving, of course in Malaysia still many years away and lack the proper infrastructure.

One factor though not many people talked about is the decommissioning of 3G. Saves opex somewhat. Today telco shares up again. Patience until the next correction due to unique Malaysia political factor. Interestingly AA been going up big as reflected by airline shares around the world? I think market looking too forward for this. Look forward to AA next QR result.

Bursa seems to be going up today except for tech stocks.

joeblow
post Mar 9 2021, 02:51 PM

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Anyone knows the ex date for BAT and TNB? Can't find the latest online...
joeblow
post Mar 11 2021, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Mar 11 2021, 04:34 PM)
1. I find Digi attractively priced too. But is there a reason why fund managers are shunning it while retailers don't?
2. No idea bout' this.
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1. Telco profits are declining, because market too saturated and voice/sms/data per unit pricing all going down. ARPU dropping... 5G is unknown beast at the moment, pricing and all. Need additional CAPEX to remove 3G (but good for reducing OPEX). Basically it is a nice defensive industry, but the saturated market plus declining ARPU means very limited growth. Oh and Huawei now almost out of picture, not many China players out there pushing down the price for CAPEX.

I will wait patiently for DIGI to drop before going in big. The Axiata/DIGI merger news however could throw a spanner. But I don't think easy to merge with so many entities across Asia. You never know, a merger of this size has too many power players behind the scene working.


joeblow
post Mar 15 2021, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 15 2021, 09:47 PM)
comfort QR:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/comf...-5-sen-dividend

QoQ revenue +53%, PAT +53%; net profit margin 43%.

tmr, share price sure down 5%. biggrin.gif
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This net profit margin is crazy high...
joeblow
post Mar 18 2021, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Mar 18 2021, 11:44 AM)
I think there will be inflation but interest rate will remain low

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/17/978136117/li...modest-inflatio
The Fed still plans to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period, helping support the economy until the job market is fully recovered and inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2%

10y treasury yield is now at 1.621%
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Yes I agree with you on inflation. Hard not to have when so much money pumped into the systems. But other indicators will reflect real inflation or not. Like bank loan rate, job numbers, salary increment etc. Good news for me fed continues to stabilize the market. Gogogo, planning to sell bat today. Maybe sell all... Include umcc. Matang too...

joeblow
post Mar 25 2021, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(SgtScoop @ Mar 25 2021, 12:40 PM)
If the US markets shit the bed like 2008, what happens to the KSLE? I assume that the foreign funds will all retreat and the KLSE will crash too?
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Impact not as much as in 2008 since most foreign funds are out already. The more immediate catalyst is this weekend's UMMO meeting result.
joeblow
post Mar 31 2021, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Mar 30 2021, 11:03 PM)
Hartalega yes... But others are not really big producers of nitrile gloves. Honestly you can say there's selective prosecution involved. Hartalega are involved too and they suddenly announced they were going to compensate their foreign workers who paid to secure their jobs after TG announcement came out. It's just that TG is somehow being bitten non stop despite their effort to correct things. Note that Hartalega is probably the biggest exporter to North America due to their preference for nitrile gloves.
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I am thinking, this glove thing, is it revenge play? Moo was listening to Trump earlier. Also not sure if this is connected to China too? I just find it hard to believe US decided to target a glove company in the middle of pandemic. So many companies out there doing what TG is doing...

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