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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Sep 8 2020, 01:15 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 8 2020, 01:12 PM)
U been saying that for a long time, whn harta was still very very high.

Rebuy IF there is a trend reversal is much much more safer
*
hmm.. one of the reason why cannot put all money into hold tight tight stock.

allocate some money to make your holding price down.

the cycle keep repeating, and we can always make money from those unexpected sales. biggrin.gif
skty
post Sep 8 2020, 04:16 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(enixcv123 @ Sep 8 2020, 03:36 PM)
drop till everyone scare to enter already
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QUOTE(anakMY @ Sep 8 2020, 03:44 PM)
glove bubble finally bursted
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Remember the feeling and learn from it. Conquer your fear and greed.

QUOTE(OTBB @ Sep 8 2020, 04:01 PM)
Since so many of you discuss about glove counters, so far only Hartalega & Kossan have sell signals. Sell signal for the other 4 counters are not out yet.
*
Are you the real OTB?
skty
post Sep 8 2020, 04:22 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(OTBB @ Sep 8 2020, 04:19 PM)
I'm OTBB that is using tradingview TA to trade mainly in futures.
*
Hmmm. Just now thought you are OTB. Sorry
skty
post Sep 8 2020, 04:57 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(triple02 @ Sep 8 2020, 04:28 PM)
damn today really no eye see  shakehead.gif
*
Won’t be the last. It will keep happen and it will look more serious then the previous.


skty
post Sep 8 2020, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 8 2020, 05:01 PM)
maybe tmr?

today looks like jul 16 and aug 17.

tmr we shall see if it is indeed a case of a higher low... followed by higher high!
*
I cannot time the market so I dunno what will happen tomorrow.

But after some volume analysis for the past two weeks, I have an opinion that this week is the week they going to push the market.

Certainly didn’t expect the whole market to be in Red Sea today. Most probably market sentiment is bad due to recession coming.

And since we cannot control market sentiment, we just need to fall back to FA. If the company is making money, keep making more money, then it’s all we can filter when we pick which company to invest.
skty
post Sep 8 2020, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 8 2020, 05:52 PM)
of course.... i wasn't picking on any timing.

in fact, i was picking on "the higher low, higher high" bit... which i see as well.

TA or FA, there are both filled with flaws... esp when market sentiments gyrate like hell.

so, let's be patient and see what happens next day, next week, next month.

like u, i am vested in gloves and am optimistic there will be wins in the long run. smile.gif
*
oh. ya. you have sharp eye.

just some sharing because for some that is not so strong on TA to find support in an uptrend industry, higher low is the logical support. biggrin.gif

but if based on TA, the support will be at another figure which is also very very near to the previous low point.

and I really think both of them are still in Wave 5, therefore this is just another correction. But will be a major one before it goes to new height.

my opinion only, not necessary be correct. Can just ignore if anyone doesn't agree. smile.gif
skty
post Sep 8 2020, 07:05 PM

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anyone bought Harta?

13.xx is freaking cheap.
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 01:21 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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remember the feeling at the moment, and what you have said in this point of time.

better to make a note, record down, and revisit it after the storm is over. See what you have done wrong when you decide things based on emotion, not logic.

it will be a great lesson for all. If you can learn from it, you will definitely become a good investor.

if not, you will become the same as the 90% people in the market, which have failed to control own's greed and fear.

always back to fundamental, I don't give a f to what price Mr. Market offer me now.
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 01:55 PM

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I want to highlight a few points here.

for those who think the glove is a bubble, have you consider the following:

1) new factory/supply expansion by new player - have you consider the technology that they use, the expertise that they have, whether they can produce 2.5g glove? If cannot, they only can produce heavier glove, is it cost efficient in material wise?
2) new factory/supply expansion by new player - have you consider where can they buy their material? current nitrile latex material from Taiwan and Korea is fully booked and the capacity expansion will take a longer time than expand of glove production line. So to get order for the material, do those new players need to pay spot order price?
3) ASP normalization - have you consider when will the ASP normalize? If you don't want to invest in glove purely due to price is rising due to Covid-19 cycle, then you should not invest in all other cyclical stock as well. Because all will normalized after the peak.
4) Profit - instead of thinking their profit unable to sustain forever, have you think what those companies can do with the cash on hand now? From an in-debt company turned into a nett positive cash company in just 6 months, as a businessman, what can you do with the cash on hand? Can I use those cash on hand, throw price on the ASP, those new players can match? You still want to invest in those new players?
5) Vaccine - do you know what's the vaccine for? Have you consider the process a vaccine development need to undergo? Have you consider what's the percentage of the infected population vs the healthy population?

To invest successfully in a business, you need to think like a businessman. That's the reason why WB keep stressing about circle of competent. If you don't want to study and do research, you will never know what those businesses are doing, how can you invest?
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 07:13 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 9 2020, 03:33 PM)
Where are we now? Supermax dropped another 7%. Kossan dropped another 10% today. If everyday drop 10%, then by Day 10, Kossan becomes zero in value! Eh, this does not sound right. Vanguard failed the maths test.  biggrin.gif

How low can it go? This is the million dollar question.

For every 5% drop in value a day, our heart rate will increase by 10 beats per second. I know this feeling well. Your self doubt will increase every day. Most investment failed because we cannot control our EQ and not because of IQ. Having an education in finance by itself is not fool proof. Otherwise, all the multi millionaires today will be accountants.

Have we calculated wrongly? Are we suffering from self denial syndrome now as what I posted a few days ago?

If you are a value investor, then this is the time to follow Peter Lynch. Switch off the computer and go fishing!
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fishing can calm one down. too bad i feel damn boring when fishing. dunno how to enjoy it. hahaha
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 07:37 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 9 2020, 07:21 PM)
No risk, no gain. I share your view. thumbup.gif

At least the forumers here are more level headed. Not like l3 forum.  biggrin.gif
*
An uptrend increased profit making company will never burst bubble one la, moreover this “bubble” is not goreng bubble. Quite fair value lo with some discount. Will come back one. I’m not worry. Hahaha.

This post has been edited by skty: Sep 9 2020, 07:38 PM
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 10:56 PM

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so damn sweet now looking at the price.

luring me to take out another war chest to buy. doh.gif
skty
post Sep 9 2020, 11:44 PM

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when a company has lots of cash in hand, they can also go for share buy back. brows.gif

just like what US companies like to do, but they do it with borrowed money (at 0% interest). biggrin.gif
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Sep 10 2020, 12:02 AM)
but wouldnt it better to cut loss first and repurchase at a lower price?
*
problem is do you know where to cut loss and where to queue purchase back?

now it's not the time to cut loss already because all traders until mid term investors already sold.
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 12:20 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Sep 10 2020, 12:18 AM)
Thats where Technical Analysis comes in..

Master both TA and FA you'll be a good trader..
I cling onto my beliefs with gloves stock ignoring TA.. and I got burned bad.
*
so now you still want to based on FA or TA?

if you based on FA, you should hold tight tight, ya?

if you based on TA, you should already sold at EMA20 and always queuing on the breakout, ya?
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 12:25 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Sep 10 2020, 12:11 AM)
DJI and S&P 500 futures mean nothing on our market. Why does the US market have anything to do with Bursa? It’s a different game. It’s just speculations and predictions and reflects market sentiment in the US before market open next day. Funds are still bullish on FAANGS + TSLA. Whereas in Malaysia, retail investors control a fair share of market. And people are already panic-selling.
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US dollar is world reserved currency.

Car “A” is moving backward at speed 20 km/hr. Car “B” is moving backward at speed 30 km/hr. It may look like car “A” is moving forward. brows.gif

if you can catch the meaning, you untung.

if no, just ignore this bullshit. biggrin.gif
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 04:33 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 10:00 AM)
Makes me wonder if TG’s qr is going to be lower than 800m and the insiders are selling now...
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since its so near to the QR date already, just want to disclose my estimated earning for TG is 1.1bil minimum to 1.4bil maximum.

spmx is gonna be really crazy next QR. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 10 2020, 12:04 PM)
Hey, don't despair yet my friend. It is not over. I have a six figure unrealised loss here.

If you have holding power, just continue to weather the storm until next week. The fundamentals have not changed.

The Big 4 will weather the storm.  smile.gif
*
same same. rclxm9.gif biggrin.gif

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 10 2020, 12:25 PM)
From the past movement of the stock market, once the Big 4 moves up, the 2nd tier stocks will follow. The 2nd tier stock with the best valuation now appears to be Comfort.
A lot of retail investors were caught this week. I suspect panic selling and margin calls were responsible for the sell down especially today. Once all the weak players, T+2 players and the margin players are flushed out, then only the serious players will be left. This has been my experience for the last few months.

Forget about all the white noise. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Like I said before, if everyone here thinks alike, Bursa will shut down in 24 hours because there will be no buyers and sellers left...since everyone will either think that the glove stocks are overvalued or that the glove stocks are undervalued.
*
early year end sales. Doubt will have another cheap sales like this in gloves before the ASP normalize.

what is your plan? I plan to take out two war chest and wait for buy signal.
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 04:36 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 10 2020, 04:35 PM)
Two war chests you say? That's very deep pockets you have.
*
all earned from share market. it's ok to give back if bad luck. biggrin.gif
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 04:58 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(yehlai @ Sep 10 2020, 04:45 PM)
Bro cannot only look at ASP.. like mask during MCO also seliing MYR 100-120/cs.. sustainable now?

Amid that Price looks attractive now, but is the value there?
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ok bro. Thanks for the advise. thumbsup.gif

I say it's cheap because I know the value and I compare it with the price.
skty
post Sep 10 2020, 07:34 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:26 PM)
I work in TG and i say to hold existing shares and invest more at rm6. The future is bright
*
once human is in fear, they cannot think logically.

QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:31 PM)
No need, its either u trust or u dont. If want, come meet me at tg tower we go the gym at level 10

But still to please you, i send u a pic of me showing peace hhhahahahh
*
really? I at Setia Alam. Beside your HQ. hahahaha. Lets go lim teh chit chat. Next time my company cycle returns, we share share info. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(Arvinaaaaa @ Sep 10 2020, 06:33 PM)
This 14.9 million is just the start. Our net gear ratio is still very positive. Announcement of PAT also is very soon
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can break through the 1.4bil? if can then HUAT lo. notworthy.gif thumbup.gif

2021 Q1 quarter PAT should challenge Maybank annual PAT. use 1 quarter PAT to beat Maybank's 1 year PAT. push that tiger down to 2nd place. devil.gif

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Sep 10 2020, 06:47 PM)
I have one war chest left. Not planning to do anything at the moment. Wait for next week. 😀
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ok. I try to control my greed as well.

but look at all those fear around, I feel so stupid not to take advantage. shakehead.gif

QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 10 2020, 06:52 PM)
15 mil share buy back. Almost 10% of today's volume. That's quite a lot of money for TG to spend to defending share price.

I respect him. Some will say share buyback is not in the best interest of the company (should invest the excess cash to grow profit blablabla). But whether or not he can successfully defend the share price in the end, I still respect him for trying.

Not many bosses of listed companies in Malaysia will do this. Many list co will suddenly incur "marketing fee" or "consulting fee" from some unknown BVI companies when the listco makes money.
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actually what they do is contracting the purpose of bonus issue. Anyway, it's the company management decision. As long as don't borrow money to do that, then OK.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2020, 07:22 PM)
supermax also did share buyback today, rm36 mil spent.

good, they have cash too.

see tmr who else wanna dump, cut loss, take profit, whatever!
*
that's why those who like to goreng new glove player, I really laughed. Those establish just throw money on them, they die already.

This post has been edited by skty: Sep 10 2020, 07:40 PM

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