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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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nauticat99
post Nov 5 2020, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 5 2020, 02:39 PM)
easy, IBKR via TSG unless more than 100k usd can open IBKR straight.. check out other topics in stock exchange section..
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Can i check with sifu here. Lets say i want to invest in HKex or SSE, will it be better via IBKR or HLE? Time frame to hold is around 5 to 10 years. So not to trade, more on long term holdings.
nauticat99
post Nov 5 2020, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 5 2020, 03:29 PM)
of course can.. but then u think about it.. you go through the hassle of opening IBKR.. you are settled for life.. you want to trade heavily in the US or any other countless markets.. you have the power to do so already! i also stated with HLIB as well.. i bought us shares for 25 usd PER TRADE.. with IBKR/TSG . can trade so many times already.. it works especially if you want to DCA in the future or add position.

dont forget dividend handling fee for local broker.. banks will eat alot man
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Yes, i get what you meant. After all the hassles of opening IBKR, it definitely make sense to trade as much as possible to maximize your gains. So your advice would be to look into this IBKR to trade. For me, HLE setup seems easier cause already have an account with them, just need to submit some extra forms. The thing is i have no idea as to the transaction and misc fees difference between them. If IBKR is much cheaper, then that would be the way forward.


nauticat99
post Nov 5 2020, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Nov 5 2020, 04:19 PM)
Bro gloves aren't moving. I am pissed. Tech is flying though
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Fret not, it will move soon. Just see the numbers of covid cases in US and Europe. US above 100K a day!
nauticat99
post Nov 5 2020, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 5 2020, 04:41 PM)
but you literally just said foreign funds coming back in...
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Talking about foreign funds in reference to Smax foreign share ownerships. These from their annual reports:
2018 - 30%
2019 - 25%
2020 - 20%

As you can see, the foreign funds have been paring down their Smax holdings over the years. I am not sure whether it is a good thing or not.
nauticat99
post Nov 11 2020, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(cempedaklife @ Nov 11 2020, 02:57 PM)
then perhaps we should buy then  laugh.gif
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bursa casino very easy one- when red, buy. When green sell.
nauticat99
post Nov 11 2020, 03:13 PM

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Now is a good time to stock up on glove counters. By end of next week, we should see US covid reaching 200K a day
nauticat99
post Nov 11 2020, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 11 2020, 03:16 PM)
On glove, many including me, underestimate the magnitude of explosive earning due to rise in ASP and still stay elevated until now, hence we have second wave of surge on glove at that time, and analysts keep on changing TP.

I am with you on this.
Those went in early, probably will earn big during recovery, but at the same time, it could be catching falling knife if situation is not favourable.

While go in later, then earn lesser, but less risky as well.

One thing I learned through experience through 1997 AFC, 2000 dotcom bubble, 2008 GFC crisis, is that in every recovery, not every company will recover the same.
Some may troubled by debt problem, which needs massive capital injection, right issue, may dilute the effect of the recovery. Some may lose competitive edge together as well due to change of fundamental and economy shape.
eg.
last time profit 100 mil EPS 10 cents.
after massive right issue 1:1, profit indeed recover 100 mil, EPS 5 cents only.

Since share price is highly correlated to EPS, hence the dilution effect of right issue taking a toll on share price performance.
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Very true. That's why i don't understand why people go chase Airasia yesterday. It's a matter of time before they issue right issues. That time these people will be rushing to sell off their holdings.
nauticat99
post Nov 11 2020, 03:31 PM

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https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/sc-...C?ocid=msedgntp

Not good at all, not fair to ikan bilis like us
nauticat99
post Nov 12 2020, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Nov 12 2020, 05:04 PM)
I think some funds are switching from gloves to traditionals. The rise of traditionals coincided with gloves dropping. Many believed vaccine news can bring quick economic recovery, and even gave rise to beers and tourism related stocks. I'd love a quick recovery, but I just feel it's too optimistic,, seeing the sudden run up in these prices.  ohmy.gif
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Wait till the traditionals qtr report out, then everyone runs back to gloves again.
nauticat99
post Nov 12 2020, 06:32 PM

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Haha...Dpharma results out. PAT14M, QoQ -4.09%, YoY -4.93%.
Share price way overvalue
nauticat99
post Nov 12 2020, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(Barricade @ Nov 12 2020, 10:29 PM)
Give you dividend for what? Most people goreng only. Once received dividend they will sell. Dividend will not keep people stay invested. Better they keep the money to buyback shares
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Quite true. Malaysians rush to buy bfor X and exit the moment it's X-ed. The only way is to give quarterly dividends like what some reits are doing. But I thought tglv mentioned they plan to give higher and quarterly dividend starting fr mid of next year onwards?
nauticat99
post Nov 13 2020, 03:41 PM

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stock market is all about psychological warfare. Put a few to big guns in an empty factory, already ppl quickly part with their money. Not to say wrong to buy, but i'd rather put in well established company
nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 04:30 PM

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Of these big 4, i only buy Smax and TG. Smax due to its future potentials - dual listing in Sg and building gloves plants in US and UK. Plus for the next few qtrs or years, their hefty profit would enable them to move ahead faster than Kossan or Harta. These cash would enable them to undertake more projects eg to build more glove plants or to diversify into other health related industries. Who knows they may go into biomedical research or become a major distributor for health products since they already have their distribution channels in the Americas and Europe. Where Smax is now is very different from few years ago, hence it will be an exciting company to follow for next few years.
TG cause it is the industry leader, hence they have more financial might to expand and leave their competitions behind eating their dust. Boss Lim is a man of vision - besides glove manufacturing, they are now into a lot of different businesses. Products that support their glove plants fr A-Z, property, medical centre, biomedical etc.
Harta is over priced and seems to be very comfortable staying put in Malaysia with only glove as their main business.
Kossan even worst.
nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 04:35 PM

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Get ready your war chest...
nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2020, 04:36 PM)
Mean they intend to park their earning overseas.
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which i think is the right move.
nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2020, 04:38 PM)
Topg has about 11,000 foreign workers. how many of them are involved?
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So more glove shortage coming up? ASP increase? biggrin.gif
nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Nov 16 2020, 04:50 PM)
Harta is overpriced which is true but technologically is also much superior than even TG. If you compare the revenue of Hartalega vs TG in comparison with their numbers of lines, it will shock you. Hartalega is so much more efficient and also probably the only one with automatic glove stripping meaning less workforce needed.

Personally I dont think TG will be building new plants because it took so long. That's why they bought Aspion aka ex Adventa. For a company with over 300lines, installing 10 or 20 new lines per year seems like too slow to make any significant difference. A big takeover target like Aspion or Latexx could increase their output by a huge amount.
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No doubt prior to covid, harta net profit margin is much better than TG due to them being more efficient. But it is also due to the type of glove harta manufactured which is nitrile gloves giving them a better profit margin. Harta factory if not mistaken produce either 90% or 98% nitrile gloves whereas TG and Smax have way lesser nitrile gloves production. But recent changes done to their production lines have increased the nitrile glove amount produced by TG and Smax.

On top of that, I am sure TG and Smax would also start to look into automation as part of their move to rely less on foreign labour. Look at the hassles of US CBP and the covid cases being faced by TG.

One good thing about Harta is their innovation. They were the 1st to come out with the thinnest nitrile glove, anti-microbial gloves as well as automation in their glove stripping lines. But what i foresee is all these can also be done by their competitors, leaving Harta with lesser edge in the future.

nauticat99
post Nov 16 2020, 11:36 PM

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https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...lation-12896596
Rehashing an old article. Now a lot of watchdog waiting to see whether moderna bosses are going to sell like what they did the last time. Somehow i seriously doubt this moderna vaccine can work. Bad history to date, with no proven vaccine till now
nauticat99
post Nov 17 2020, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Nov 17 2020, 04:47 PM)
Survey time. Do you all think big 4 gloves can reach previous high? Why?

For me, I think not really possible. Gloves still can earn high ASPs supernormal profit. But DY cant beat banks. So, some will switch/already have switched frm gloves to banks. When glove companies surged frm June-Sep, they were making good profits while other companies suffered losses. Now, market is gradually getting more confident in recovery companies. I still believe gloves can have high ASP profits and this sell-off is irrational. But the interest for gloves may have started its decline.
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I think this kind of mkt volatility is the best. Huge margin in TG and smax today, sure got some opportunity for some swing. So all long as covid or vaccine in the picture, take this opportunity to make money. Some go for recovery, some believe in glove. Me? Still very much into glove with small holdings in recovery. Why? cos their profit is REAL
nauticat99
post Nov 17 2020, 05:47 PM

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Sharing is caring. Fwd fr a friend, so no idea how to credit the author of this article. But my preference is still Smax from the list below.

RUBBER GLOVES - Preflop pocket aces & your opponent went all in. Do you fold?

It's now 1 week post Pfizer vaccine news. Moderna just came out with further positive news on their trial results. Vaccine is a good thing, we should celebrate that the pandemic will soon be over. But, how soon is soon? And is it game over for rubber glove play?

In the image attached, I have updated the latest "apple to apple" peer analysis of the first and second tier rubber glove players in Malaysia (and Sri Trang). It's divided in 2 sides, one is if we "simply" annualise (x4) the latest quarter, while the other is if we "simply" annualise the latest 2 quarters / half (x2) - an exercise to guesstimate earnings in 2021 & perhaps beyond. It's worth noting that last checked, ASP is still on the rise, as global second wave of COVID19 is happening so there may be a case to use simple annualisation on past 2 quarters.

And what do we see? We see an industry average PE of around 15x. In my opinion, this is cheap. Recall, this is an industry of which 1) we have earnings visibility of around 1 year 2) windfall of cash as deposit are paid up front to secure order 3) demand & supply imbalance that will continue to be inelastic until at least end 2022 / early 2023 4) which will lead to prolong elevated ASP level which cause fat margin. 5) Explanation of 1-4 is sector specific and if we compare valuation of rubber glove vs some tech stocks across varying value chain - glove’s fundamental is better and it’s relatively undervalued.

Vaccine is definitely a good thing, there’s a global effort to produce is as fast as possible, but even if this is the case, when’s the earliest it can be mass produced? what about getting them administered to a sizeable portion of global population? Rubber glove is now in phase 2, the part which is the most volatile. The part where the industry will be tested agaisnt it’s biggest enemy - the test of time.

We are seeing money flowing from healthcare stocks to recovery play, this is all fine and well. I personally have diversified too, but how many of those recovery play can be backed by a certain visible profit and cash? At the end of the day, stock investment needs to fall back to d fundamentals and in the glove industry, we are pre-flopping a pocket Aces in terms of fundamentals. Why do you think more than 15 players in KLSE are moving into glove? Willing to take hundred millions of risks of investment? It's because they would like to have a scrape of the supernormal profit, even if it's at the tail end of 2022. Rerating of glove feels like it already happened, but it's premature, in my opinion.

A note on glove newcomers, we see alot of daily trading volume in some of the names like AT system. Some names are being valued close to the 2nd tier names that's already operating with all relevant CE or FDA certifications. I personally don't believe its so easy to just plug n play. The profit estimates being flashed around are also taking the combination of the most bullish scenario. If these newcomers can achieve such profit without the economies of scale, ability to manage production without downtime and at full efficiency, best ability to negotiate with clients, etc - then by the same logic you should bet on the first tiers of making even more extraordinary gains on the basis of profit per glove! What I’m saying is, if u think u r rationally investing in some of these counters, esp those that had gone up a lot in price, your money’s worth at investing in the first tier counters at current prices makes a lot more logical investment.

Stick to the blue chip in the industry. If you have zero holding of gloves, it's a good time to buy & invest some for your portfolio. There’s a room for rubber glove in any portfolio.

There should be another round of selloff tmr from Moderna vaccine news. The fear is reaching the peak. Those trading Or having 0 position can consider to enter. Personal Top pick right now: RIVERSTONE. It’s trading at 12x PE & it has dual engine of growth. Just my 2 cents.

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