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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Kadaj
post Jan 4 2021, 09:23 AM

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Finally TG break RM6.00 and falling like waterfall.. GG
Kadaj
post Jan 4 2021, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 4 2021, 08:59 PM)
Reason why FF and FDI shy away from this country.
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Vietnam going to overtake this country very soon. doh.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 6 2021, 01:27 PM

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Don't you guys and gals think that most of the stock prices inflated too much comparing to pre-covid era?

Is the stock price really reflect that the business is twofold / threefold better than pre-covid or it's just the bubble getting bigger and bigger?
Kadaj
post Jan 6 2021, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 6 2021, 01:50 PM)
it's the same in almost all bourses, USA worst.

just too much money chasing everything, incl money losing stocks.

bursa, we have "goreng" - u can throw anything into the wok, can goreng. laugh.gif

seriously, if u wanna go in... should u go into money losing ones or money making ones at this time?

ok, some will say "forward looking"... like tesla... PE 115... maybe people expecting laser blasters and teleport devices in 20 years time?
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Definitely. People can't go out for travel instead goreng stocks at home.
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 6 2021, 02:10 PM)
I totally agree, especially the 'techs'. Abit too overrated.
I am thinking of moving out of bursa and join the emerging markets that have a lot of FDI via unit trust.

For techs, their PE damn...  not sure why they havent start shorting these techs.
If the growth is sustainable for years, then ok la, but we dont know yet lo

Just few examples:
Greatech FY22 estimated EPS is 25.9
UWC FY23 estimated EPS is 26

As of current price,
Greatech FY22 forward PE is 36 at RM9.48
UWC FY23 forward PE is 37.5 at RM9.75
They are definitely not cheap if they cannot grow the earnings after 2023, especially when FD is raised back later. But if they can sustain their growth rate even after 2023, then definitely can consider, but now no projection data for after 2023 yet
Because of contribution from Topglov and Harta, they are till up a lot compared to pre-covid. Totally carried the KLCI
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I agree.
I believe tech stocks will crash after glove stocks sooner or later.
QUOTE(ry8128 @ Jan 6 2021, 02:34 PM)
Every now and then there will be overvalued and undervalued stocks, so if you are fundamental guy, then u must search for undervalued stocks and buy it.

As for overvalued stocks, u must play it using TA.

So it depends on how u wan to play it.
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I doubt I still can find any undervalued stock. haha
QUOTE(skty @ Jan 6 2021, 02:57 PM)
This happens every time. Get use to it.

High performance noise cancelling headphone helps.
If you are interested to know more, some little exposure can be found in the following video

https://youtu.be/LcwMMKvzPms
Still approved huh?

I heard my friend say EPF making noise at the AGM asking the boss don’t do SBB so often.

What does that mean? Haha.
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Very interesting video.
We're seeing the same thing repeating from history again, ain't we?
QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 6 2021, 03:24 PM)
Sigh, political play again.
Wondering if I should retreat to cash for the near term.
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There is a time bomb called General Election.
The risk is getting higher due to the uncertainty and unpredictability.
Kadaj
post Jan 6 2021, 08:42 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Jan 6 2021, 08:24 PM)
Did some research and apparently RSS holding period is indefinite as long securities are borrowed through Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) or purchased through Islamic Securities Selling and Buying –
Negotiated Transaction
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It's unfair.
I think retails should have the same right to hold longer instead of intraday so we can all short together. rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by Kadaj: Jan 6 2021, 08:43 PM
Kadaj
post Jan 7 2021, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Jan 7 2021, 12:53 PM)
I’ve started averaging down since the start of the dip haha..

Sitting at quite some paper loss..

Looking forward to see when it makes a come back, fundamentally speaking I’m not worried, it’s a net cash company with huge growth potential due to increasing demand for stretch films,trash bags and courier bags(one of their customers is Amazon).
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I've checked their financial statements and looks good for me.
Any reason or news why tguan stock price keep falling recently?
Kadaj
post Jan 7 2021, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 7 2021, 03:19 PM)
How's your Maybank? tongue.gif
Anyway, TGuan, for me, oil is the main factor....  I think u know la... but for company like TGuan, the initial higher oil prices is actually good for TGuan cos it does a have good management of its raw material inventory...blah blah blah... but such profits cannot sustain when its raw materials is based on the higher oil prices.
This one is actually one of the miss. Can't win it all. tongue.gif

...

the main up trend from March 2020 is now gone ....
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Before this USD was strong against MYR so it benefit exporter like tguan.
Also the oil price was historic low so the lower material cost also turn into higher profit.
I assume the oil price going to stay above $50 so the golden time was gone but the business still good just don't expect for booming profit.

Overall, fundamentally still a good business just waiting for the price adjusted to where it should be.

I'm looking for long term investment that I can sleep well at night instead of following price movement everyday.
Kadaj
post Jan 7 2021, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 7 2021, 03:59 PM)
Oh yes... USD is a factor.

Sorry for not mentioning it.
It's a good business no doubt.... but in the market... the market is damn picky and fickle minded..... and nasty.............
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Indeed.
Time and capital both are limited resources.
QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 7 2021, 04:06 PM)
Is it still a bull market?
I'm starting to see a bear with horns.
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Maybe Biden going to print more money. cool2.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 7 2021, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jan 7 2021, 04:06 PM)
hahahaha this session is fun.

have you guys see how the TG short seller get crushed just now?

their RSS queue just get breakthrough just like that.

guess they don't have much friendlies around.

very fun!  thumbup.gif
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I like the first day one. Straight strike in the opening and created panic.

Today's show very lame. whistling.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 7 2021, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE
Foreign equity investors have mainly been on issues around political uncertainties and governance, the latter which happened to be one of the reasons for the Fitch downgrade to BBB+ recently.

We all know the issue. Just look at the recent HSR case. Foreign investors rather invest in Vietnam than Msia. doh.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 8 2021, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 8): PNE PCB Bhd's share trade volume skyrocketed 255 fold to 89.42 million at Bursa Malaysia's afternoon break today from 346,700 yesterday after the circuit board maker announced its proposal to diversify into manufacturing and sale of rubber gloves to capitalise on the Covid-19 pandemic-driven demand for gloves.

Property developer Mahsing want to sell gloves, now circuit board maker also want to sell gloves. whistling.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 8 2021, 04:06 PM

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Monday SS Friday recover then Monday SS Friday recover again.

I hope the pattern stay like this. laugh.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 8 2021, 07:11 PM

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So next Monday, is it going to be another day for sales or the beginning of bearish? whistling.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 8 2021, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 8 2021, 07:14 PM)
remember the simulation we talked about? the 3 options?

how?
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We can't simply judging whether it's bull or bear based on single day trading result. We need time to justify our assumptions.
We might not able to 100% predict what's gonna happen next but we can prepare for it. cool2.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 9 2021, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 8 2021, 10:08 PM)
Huhhhh?
Okay. Nvm. smile.gif
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Perhaps you're talking about the descending tirangle.
Be early or wait for breakout? laugh.gif
QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Jan 9 2021, 08:03 AM)
Let me answer, Boon will jump in for a trade, quick in quick out, don’t ask me how quick  tongue.gif

Why: resistance line broken laa..price up, volume up, momentum there, apa lagi mau confirm?  biggrin.gif
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Ah! You save me from the mist. notworthy.gif

I used to buy and hold for long and I'm not familiar with TA before.
Let's see how it's going next week. laugh.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 9 2021, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Jan 9 2021, 01:17 PM)
My only concern now, How far up side.
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Make a call with tan sri and ask him what's his target price and we help him push together. brows.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 15 2021, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 15 2021, 12:05 PM)
Look at the PEs Tech is enjoying.
If the market tanks, I'm expecting Tech to crater harder than most.
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History keep repeating. If you are experience enough to find the pattern, you'll know how to play it.
Just same as gloves. cool2.gif
Kadaj
post Jan 24 2021, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(Taikor.Taikun @ Jan 24 2021, 11:33 AM)
Brace
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Perfect storm for short sellers.
Imagine if the full lockdown implement after 1st March where IDSS is available. devil.gif

This post has been edited by Kadaj: Jan 24 2021, 01:17 PM
Kadaj
post Jan 24 2021, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 24 2021, 05:31 PM)
there has been plenty of talk about a "total lockdown" on Feb 5 if covid cases dun decrease by then.

latest:
if it really comes to that, it will be devastating... vegetables, fruits, chicken, fish will rot away while millions go hungry.

millions of foreign workers don't go to work but stay in their cramped dorms/hostels waiting to be infected.

millions more will go hiding in the jungles, villages and kampungs.

imagine the outcome after, say 4 weeks.

perhaps some menteli need to come out of the cave and say something rational and intelligent.
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It's not going to be vege & meat rotten level. Food is the minimal level to maintain unless they're brainless enough to force people give up and go out for protest and go rogue.
Might just same as last year mco full version which last at 2~3 months to flat the cases to single digit number. But this time is much severe, which take longer time. Otherwise gonna be failure.

So decision making time, if full lockdown going to be true. Run fast and hold cash or keep average down?
Kadaj
post Jan 29 2021, 09:51 AM

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Compare the US GDP and MY GDP, Nasdaq and Bursa. It's totally different level.

A thousands of Piranha fishes stick together can defeat a shark.

A thousands of ikan bilis stick together and thinking they can defeat the shark too by inspiration of the Piranha fishes' move...

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